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Despite being one of the UFC’s most bankable stars, it looks like Nate Diaz is set to leave the promotion after his contract ends with one more fight. So, who should Diaz face in that bout?
One name that has been mooted as a potential opponent for Nate Diaz in his final UFC fight is Tony Ferguson, but should the promotion run with this clash?
On paper, at least, a fight between Diaz and ‘El Cucuy’ definitely makes a lot of sense, but whether the UFC will see things that way is, of course, another thing entirely.
Regardless, here are five reasons why Diaz vs. Ferguson is the right fight to make.
#5. Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson could draw a strong number for the UFC
One reason why the UFC might want to book a fight between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson is the potential it’d have to draw a good number on pay-per-view. The promotion does tend to headline its bigger events with title bouts these days, but a Diaz vs. Ferguson clash could definitely help boost the numbers of any show.
Of the two, Diaz is obviously the bigger draw. The Stockton-based fighter has been seen as one of the UFC’s most popular stars for over a decade now, but it was his two fights with Conor McGregor in 2016 that turned him into a truly major drawing card.
Those two clashes headlined UFC 196 and UFC 202, and both events drew well over a million buys and remain amongst the most purchased UFC shows of all time.
Since then, Diaz has helped to boost the buyrates of UFC 241 and UFC 263. While buyrate information for UFC 244, which he headlined with Jorge Masvidal, remains unknown, the event did earn over $6m in ticket sales – the second-best number for a UFC show in New York state.
Ferguson, meanwhile, is not as proven a drawing card, but he has headlined a number of big shows over the years, including UFC 249, which reportedly drew around 700k buys on pay-per-view.
Basically, putting these two fighters together would almost certainly pique the interest of the fans, meaning a strong pay-per-view buyrate for the UFC.
#4. From the UFC’s perspective, Tony Ferguson is expendable
Given that Nate Diaz’s next fight will not only be the final one on his current contract, but is also likely to be his final one for the UFC point blank, the truth is that the promotion probably doesn’t want him to win.
Not only would Diaz be able to jump ship to a competitor like Bellator MMA fresh off a big victory, but if the UFC were to attempt to re-sign him, he’d command a much larger fee than he would do off the back of three straight losses.
With that in mind, then, while matching Diaz with a stylistically tricky opponent like Khamzat Chimaev might be tempting, the very nature of the UFC means that any fighter can beat any other on a given night. Essentially, putting a rising or current star against Diaz is too risky.
That’s why a fight with Tony Ferguson makes sense. ‘El Cucuy’ was once considered one of the very best lightweights in the world. Rght now, though, he’s on a four-fight losing streak and hasn’t actually won a bout since his 2018 victory over Anthony Pettis.
Ferguson still holds some name value, of course, but from a UFC perspective, he’s basically expendable at this point, as they could easily sell him as past-his-prime should Diaz find a way to defeat him.
From this point of view, this fight would be win/win for the UFC. If Ferguson were to beat Diaz, then he’d send him packing with a loss. If he were to lose, then it wouldn’t matter all that much. With that considered, it’s the perfect fight to make.
#3. Tony Ferguson might have a decent chance of beating Nate Diaz – which would please the UFC
As was previously mentioned, the nature of Nate Diaz’s next fight being the final one on his current UFC contract makes booking it pretty delicate. The last thing the promotion would want to do would be to send the Stockton-based fighter to a rival off the back of a big win.
As an opponent, then, while Tony Ferguson – off the back of a four-fight losing streak – is expendable, does he stand a chance of beating Diaz regardless? The honest answer is definitely yes.
‘El Cucuy’ certainly hasn’t looked at his best in his last four fights, and at the age of 38, it’s understandable that he’d be slowing down. After all, he’s taken some serious damage over his eight-year career with the UFC.
However, stylistically at least, Diaz isn’t a bad match for him by any means. Sure, the Stockton native can box brilliantly and has venomous submission skills on the ground, but he isn’t likely to outpower Ferguson like Beneil Dariush did, nor does he hold the knockout power of Michael Chandler or Justin Gaethje.
If you consider Ferguson’s own striking skills – and to be fair, he did show them against Chandler before being KO’d – and ability to avoid takedowns, there’s every chance he’d actually be able to out-do Diaz on the feet and win this fight.
With that being in the UFC’s best interests, then it’d make sense for the promotion to book this clash for sure.
#2. The build to a fight between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson could be fascinating
One good reason for the UFC to book a fight between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson would be that the build to the bout would probably be highly entertaining and fascinating, too.
Diaz is renowned for being one of the best and most controversial trash talkers in the game. While he doesn’t always make all that much sense, it’s hard to deny that the fans hang on his every word. More to the point, his staredowns and press conference confrontations are legendary.
Ferguson, meanwhile, is not the most natural on the microphone, but he is wildly entertaining on social media, particularly when it comes to his inflammatory tweets.
The two lightweights have already gone back-and-forth online, in fact, with Diaz accusing the entire UFC roster of running scared for a fight in July, only for ‘El Cucuy’ to quickly respond with a callout via a series of emojis and a comical gif from a Robin Hood movie.
Essentially, if these two were matched together, the build would definitely be fun to watch, drawing more interest to their eventual bout.
#1. Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson could be a wildly-exciting fight
Perhaps the biggest reason for booking a fight between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson is the potential for it to be an instant classic. Simply put, the styles of these fighters would almost guarantee fireworks if they were to meet in the octagon.
Interestingly, both men share a lot of similar traits in terms of their fighting styles. Despite Ferguson’s background in amateur wrestling, neither he nor Diaz tend to look for takedowns and both are far more comfortable simply duking it out on the feet.
On the mat, meanwhile, they’re both happy to hunt for submissions, with both men tending to favor chokes. In fact, despite Diaz being the more credentialed grappler, it’s arguable that Ferguson has the better wins via tap-out in recent years thanks to his submission victories over the likes of Kevin Lee and Edson Barboza.
Essentially, should they face off, the likelihood would be that Diaz and Ferguson would simply square off in the center of the octagon and exchange bombs, and would potentially put on some wild scrambles if the fight were to hit the ground.
Overall, they’d practically be guaranteed to put on a Fight of the Night, if not Fight of the Year, contender, meaning the UFC would definitely be smart to book them against one another.
