ONE Fight Night 15 preview and predictions: Mikey Musumeci vs. Shinya Aoki

Mikey Musumeci (left) and Shinya Aoki (right).
Mikey Musumeci (left) and Shinya Aoki (right).

ONE Championship continued to roll out dream match after dream match.

Following its series of super fights in the past couple of cards, it will now pit ONE flyweight submission grappling world champion Mikey Musumeci against Japanese legend Shinya Aoki.

The matchup between these two generational stars goes down at ONE Fight Night 15 on Friday, US primetime, at the historic Lumpinee Boxing Stadium.

Musumeci is one of the brightest minds in modern jiu-jitsu and someone the community considers a perfect ambassador for the discipline. A smooth and calculating operator, Musumeci’s schoolboy outlook in life has captivated fans with his wholesome attitude.

Aoki, meanwhile, might just be the direct opposite. While he’s mellowed down in this part of his career, Aoki was a true menace who used his knowledge of Brazilian jiu-jitsu to wreak havoc in 2000s MMA.

Before ONE Fight Night 15 streams live and free on Prime Video across North America, Sportskeeda MMA’s ONE Championship team put together its unbiased opinion on the impending matchup between grappling geniuses.


James De Rozario: Mikey Musumeci by submission (rear-naked choke)

Musumeci has the template to take out a Japanese icon having defeated Masakazu Imanari in his promotional bow, and I see him getting this done just as quickly, if not, quicker.

The New Jersey native will take his usual submission-hunting approach to Aoki from the sound of the bell, possibly giving away top control to fight from guard, where he’s just as deadly.

He would, however, need a bit of time to bait Aoki into a finishing sequence. Aoki excels when he’s playing at his rival’s pace but that could also open him up to a lot of problems against someone of ‘Darth Rigatoni’s caliber.

Aoki wouldn’t give away too many positions for the American competitor to get comfortable, but that is where Musumeci will use his fight IQ to find the smallest of openings and counter into a footlock or a berimbolo.

What comes next should be typical Musumeci textbook stuff – a back-take and a possible rear-naked choke submission just under the five-minute mark.


Mike Murllo: Mikey Musumeci by decision

This is going to be an interesting match because we have two combatants who are among the top athletes in the game and highly capable of coming up with a win when the opportunity presents itself.

But I am going for Musumeci here winning by decision in their 10-minute openweight showdown. I just think that his familiarity with the finer details of submission grappling will tow him to the win.

It is not to say, however, that Aoki is any less of a grappler, but he is more of MMA grappling which I think will work against him in this particular matchup. Just look how he had a hard time and lost to Kade Ruotolo when they collided last year.

One thing going for the Japanese legend, however, is his size. He is a lightweight taking on a traditional flyweight in Musumeci, who is going up in pounds for the openweight clash.

‘Darth Rigatoni’ said that he can handle the weight difference come fight night, which I do not doubt, considering that throughout his run in ONE Championship he has shown the ability to employ proper mechanics and precise positioning in his attacks against different opponents.


Ted Razon: Mikey Musumeci by submission (Mikey lock)

Mikey Musumeci will be tested like never before in this matchup. No offense to ‘Darth Rigatoni’s previous opponents, but none of them is as decorated in MMA and BJJ as Shinya Aoki.

The Japanese star is deceptively strong despite his lanky flame. Those extra pounds he has over Musumeci will also come in handy in a bid to neutralize the champion’s intricate guard game.

Aoki does possess freakish grips and a frightening squeeze, and Musumeci must protect his neck at all costs. Plus, ‘Tobikan Judan’ has phenomenal back control and Musumeci should shore out his escapes or he might be in trouble.

Even with all those factors in play, I still believe Musumeci will edge out the victory on this one. In hindsight, Aoki is nearly impossible to submit and has never been tapped out in almost 60 MMA fights.

However, Musumeci can take a page out of Garry Tonon’s playbook and attack Aoki’s legs. ‘Darth Rigatoni’ could employ the 50/50 guard, which could net him plenty of creative leg lock entries.

We know Aoki’s tolerance for pain is pretty high, but Musumeci can always switch things up and transition to his patented Mikey Lock to get the tap in the latter stages of the match.


Vince Richards: Mikey Musumeci by decision

Straight out of the water, I believe Mikey Musumeci has what it takes to lock in a submission hold but I doubt he will submit Shinya Aoki.

That’s not a knock on Musumeci but rather a praise for Aoki.

‘Tobikan Judan’ didn’t earn his grandiose nickname by just his offense, but his defense and resilience also have their merits.

Aoki is called “the grand master of flying submissions” for his insane submission holds during his younger and more terrifying years at PRIDE. The Japanese legend and former ONE lightweight MMA world champion has since mellowed down a bit and is more defensive at this point in his career.

Nevertheless, his resilience on the ground game is still unmatched.

Musumeci will surely go on the attack if he gets to pull guard and he’ll certainly put Aoki in a web of submissions that has yet to be seen on the competitive stage.

Again, I know this fight is going Musumeci’s way but he will have to do something utterly spectacular to force Aoki to submit.

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