The real reason Israel Adesanya lost to Sean Strickland: Analyzing the biggest upset in UFC middleweight history

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Sean Strickland beats Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 [Image Courtesy: @ufc via X/Twitter]

Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland have made middleweight history together. Unfortunately, for 'The Last Stylebender,' it was not in the way he had envisioned, as said so by him at the UFC 293 post-fight press conference. He had a different outcome in mind, but things couldn't have gone worse for him.

His second middleweight title reign was over as soon as it began, courtesy of a five-round drubbing from Sean Strickland. Ahead of the bout, no one gave 'Tarzan' much of a chance. In fact, even Strickland himself was doubtful of his own chances at emerging victorious on Australian soil.

But come UFC 293, he did the impossible, stepping inside the octagon as the biggest betting underdog in middleweight history and dominating the nearly unconquerable Israel Adesanya. But how did he do it? How did he become the author of the greatest-ever upset at 185 pounds?


Sean Strickland neutralized Israel Adesanya's kicks

Israel Adesanya is often hailed as one of the greatest kickboxers in MMA. There is no doubting his skills as a striker. After all, he almost never wrestles, because he's rarely had to. In 27 fights, he has only ever shot for one takedown, and that was against Alex Pereira, another kickboxer, in their first encounter.

Instead, what he does more than anyone is kick. Adesanya's success on the feet, no pun intended, is largely dependent on his ability to kick his opponents, as it's his main form of dictating the range at which his fights take place. In particular, 'The Last Stylebender' relies on low kicks and body kicks.

They operate as his main range-finding and distance-management tools. By keeping his foes on the end of his kicks, he buys himself time to find his jab. Unfortunately, kicks require time and space to be thrown with power and leverage. Time and space were things he didn't have against Sean Strickland.

'Tarzan' frequently smothered Adesanya's kicks, stepping in too close for his foe to have any space to throw kicks. Furthermore, his constant pressure kept Adesanya on the back foot, forcing the former kickboxer to kick while moving backward, which meant he couldn't plant his feet and square his hips to kick with power.

But Strickland did more than simply smother the space Adesanya's kicks needed. He also checked, caught and parried the former champion's kicks. When catching 'The Last Stylebender's' kicks, he often held onto his ankle, raising his foe's leg above his hips while pushing him towards the fence.

He did this enough times that Israel Adesanya became too timid to low-kick him. Sean Strickland also faked a jab to draw out a calf kick, as calf kicks work as counters to the jab, given that the jab requires a natural extension of one's stance as one steps in, temporarily exposing the lead leg.

In anticipation of this, Strickland faked the jab to draw out Adesanya's low kick, then pulled his lead leg back when his opponent took the bait. This caused Adesanya to kick ahead of himself and miss, nearly spinning out of his stance and forcing him to reset before he was countered when his footing was poor.

As previously mentioned, he also used parries, sometimes parrying Adesanya's body kicks all the way across his guard. Even when he only parried the kicks at his mid-line, it was enough to implant the fear of being countered while standing on one leg in Adesanya's mind.

Without his kicks, Israel Adesanya could not dictate the range and force 'Tarzan' into an outfight. Worse still, it left him without his jab.


Pressure, boxing and defense

Israel Adesanya has a very specific approach when it comes to his counterpunching. He uses a myriad of feints and a long distance to frustrate his opponents. By constantly feinting, he keeps them on edge. The long-distance he maintains is designed to convince his opponents to lunge forward.

Much like his idol Anderson Silva, 'The Last Stylebender' needs a foe who is willing to step in deep and overcommit to a punch to be an effective counterpuncher. The greatest example of this was his knockout over Robert Whittaker at UFC 243. He duped 'The Reaper' into lunging into range.

Once his foe lunges forward, Israel Adesanya uses his height and length to lean back at the waist out of their range and twist his upper body into counter-hooks that blast his foe as they miss with their own looping punches. Unfortunately, for him, Sean Strickland almost never commits to punches in this way.

He never steps in deep and certainly doesn't lunge into range. In short, he gave Adesanya nothing to counter, and when 'The Last Stylebender' tried, he quickly found that straight punches like Strickland's jab and right cross landed before his own hooks. But why is that? Was Strickland faster than him?

As it turns out, he wasn't, because he didn't have to be. A jab and cross are straight punches, so they have a quick linear trajectory, moving in a straight line. Meanwhile, hooks have wider, looping arcs that take longer for them to travel through, meaning that in most cases, a jab and cross will land before a hook.

This is what happened during their bout. Strickland's jab and right cross landed before Israel Adesanya's hooks, which led to the early knockdown in the fight. Strickland threw a right cross on the inside of Adesanya's left hook, landing first and dropping his opponent in round one.

But it wasn't just Strickland's offense that won him the fight. His defense was a fundamental part of his success. As Dustin Poirier did against Conor McGregor, Sean Strickland used the Philly Shell to thwart a sniping counterpuncher regarded by many as a better striker than him.

It enabled him to stand right in front of Israel Adesanya, directly in the line of fire, as he simply deflected any punches coming his way with his shoulders, elbows and even the top of his head. All the while, it allowed him to throw his own counters after every Adesanya punch.

Finally, he found a way to sap the former champion's cardio without wrestling him. He did so by pressuring him. Adesanya is a highly skilled cage general. The moment he's close to the black lines bordering the fence, he flattens out his stance and starts shuffling from side to side.

He fakes movements in different directions, going left/right and right/left, trying to draw out an overcommitted strike from his opponent. Once his foe does so, he moves in the opposite direction of their blow, circling back out into open space. This served him well against Paulo Costa, who he made look foolish.

But since Strickland doesn't overcommit to any punches, he couldn't draw anything out to slip on the outside of to circle back into the center of the cage. He was stuck in an exhausting cycle of moving backward and trying to shake off an opponent that simply walked towards him the entire fight.

Strickland never lunged and never chased. He simply walked forward at an even pace, a low-energy action. Humans walk every day. Israel Adesanya, however, had to move backward, while trying to cleverly move side-to-side for 25 minutes, a tiring ordeal that left him gasping for air at the end.


The Verdict

Some, including UFC CEO Dana White, have opined that something was amiss at UFC 293, that Israel Adesanya's performance was indicative of an underlying issue, and that perhaps he was unwell or injured. But the truth of it all is that Sean Strickland simply executed a perfect game plan.

He, to the shock of everyone, revealed himself to be a difficult stylistic matchup for Israel Adesanya, and he will have the chance to prove it to his doubters if 'The Last Stylebender' is given the dreaded immediate rematch.

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