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The UFC has got off to a good start in 2019 in terms of its TV broadcasts, as the ESPN deal seems to be working better than their former one with Fox did and thus far the shows produced have been pretty great. Pay-per-view has been another matter, though – UFC 233 was cancelled and UFC 234 was one of the weakest cards the promotion had ever put together.
That should change this weekend with UFC 235. This is a truly stacked pay-per-view, with two big title fights on top, the debut of one of the highest rated fighters to have never stepped into the Octagon, and numerous top prospects and veterans up and down the card.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith.
#1 Jon Jones vs. Anthony Smith
The main event of UFC 235 will see Anthony Smith challenge Jon Jones for the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in what might be one of the most unexpected title fights in promotional history. When Smith made his debut at 185lbs back in 2013 and was submitted by Antonio Braga Neto, nobody could’ve predicted that six years later, he’d be fighting for gold at 205lbs. Essentially, ‘Lionheart’ is a journeyman, and he’s taken a journeyman’s route to the top.
Perhaps that’s underselling Smith’s current rise, though. After that loss to Neto, he was released by the UFC only to go 7-1 on the regional circuit before returning. A 2-1 stretch in 2016 suggested he would settle back into a role as a solid gatekeeper, but a 2017 win over Hector Lombard made fans open their eyes a little more. Smith then lost to Thiago Santos at the beginning of 2018, but then moved to 205lbs and put together 3 wins to capture this title shot.
Evidently struggling to get to 185lbs, Smith looks well put together at his new weight, a rangy, lean fighter who throws devastating strikes both from range and from inside the clinch. Knees and elbows appear to be Smith’s most dangerous weapons, as it was those that he used to take out former champions Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua in 2018. He’s also no mug on the ground, as we saw when he submitted Volkan Oezdemir in October.
The problem for Smith here is that he’s up against one of the very best fighters of all time in Jon Jones. ‘Bones’ has of course been surrounded by controversy for the past few years – most notably due to a string of positive drug tests that culminated in a year-long suspension from 2017 to 2018. Most recently, a trace amount of the banned substance turanibol – supposedly a leftover from the previous dose that’d got him suspended – forced the UFC to move UFC 232 from Las Vegas to Los Angeles when the Nevada State Athletic Commission refused to licence him.
None of that seemed to matter when he destroyed Alexander Gustafsson to regain the title he never truly lost, though. In 2013 Gustafsson had pushed him harder than any other fighter, but in 2018 he stood no chance against Jones, who seems better than ever in all areas. Nobody uses their range quite like Jones, and nobody has been able to outwrestle or outgrapple him either.
Realistically then, there’s nothing to suggest Smith can do the impossible. Nobody can take his run to the top away from him, but it’s also hard to deny that it’s been built on shaky foundations. His wins over Evans and Shogun gave him two big names on his ledger, but both men are miles past their prime and Evans retired shortly after that loss. And Oezdemir had only been out of the first round once before facing Smith, and clearly struggled in that fight too.
Worse still, Smith isn’t the kind of fighter who could potentially catch an all-time great like Jones and put him away with something sudden. He doesn’t have the one-shot kill power of an Anthony Johnson, as most of his TKO victories have come using flurries from close range – essentially Jones’ wheelhouse. Nor is he really good enough on the ground to surprise Jones with a submission.
More to the point, he’s not exactly invulnerable to being badly hurt by strikes or on the ground. We saw Thiago Santos destroy him just a year ago with a violent flurry, for instance, and of his 13 losses, he’s been finished 12 times. Admittedly, he appears to be more durable at 205lbs than he did at 185lbs, but against an offensive virtuoso like Jones that doesn’t mean a lot.
I think this is a commendable fight for Jones in the sense that other UFC champions would probably balk at fighting a lesser name like Smith and would probably attempt to hold out for a so-called ‘money fight’. It’s a refreshing attitude and probably points at Jones wanting to get back into the promotion’s good books. This feels to me very much like a ‘challenger-of-the-month’ type deal though, and if Smith even makes it out of the second round I’d be gobsmacked.
The Pick: Jones via second-round TKO
#2 Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman
Okay, let’s get the controversial bit out of the way early. Colby Covington would claim he has a right to feel aggrieved about this fight, as he won the interim Welterweight title in June 2018 and since then, Tyron Woodley has defended his title against Darren Till and will now be defending against Usman rather than fighting ‘Chaos’.
However, that seems to be more on Covington than Woodley, as reports have suggested that injuries and financial demands have prevented the UFC from making a Woodley/Covington clash. That means I’ve got zero sympathy for a guy who, realistically, only got into the position he did due to his trash talk anyway.
Kamaru Usman, on the other hand, has rarely talked trash – he’s earned his title shot by beating up everyone he’s faced in the UFC. Sure, his wrestling-heavy style isn’t always that exciting – of his 10 UFC wins, he’s finished just 2 opponents – but wins against the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Demian Maia and Leon Edwards simply can’t be argued against.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Usman is that really, nobody has even been able to test him inside the Octagon. Strikers like Edwards, Warlley Alves and Emil Meek simply couldn’t handle his grappling; grapplers like Maia and Dos Anjos were either beaten up on the feet or on the ground due to Usman’s phenomenal mix of athleticism and wrestling skill. He’s never really been rocked on the feet, and Dos Anjos’ kimura attempt might be the only time he’s looked in difficulty on the ground.
That’s why he’s such a fascinating test for Woodley. ‘The Chosen One’ has ruled over the Welterweight division since taking the title from Robbie Lawler back in July 2016, but while his 4 title defences have been impressive, it must be noted that he’s beaten two strikers – Stephen Thompson and Darren Till – and a grappler in Demian Maia. He’s never defended against someone who has wrestling on the level of Usman, and it’s arguable that he’s never faced someone who’s his athletic equal in his whole career.
For me, this fight likely comes down to a couple of things. First is whether Usman can back Woodley up and get his wrestling game going without eating a big counter. Woodley is a strange fighter in that it’s worryingly easy for his opponents to force him backwards – Thompson and most notably Rory MacDonald did this to great success – but if the opponent pushes it a little too much, they can walk into a huge counterpunch and those kind of shots can finish the fight in an instant.
Usman won’t be looking to back Woodley up to keep him on the end of a jab like Thompson and MacDonald did, though; more likely he’ll be attempting to close the distance, clinch with Woodley and muscle him to the ground. On the rare occasions, he’s been on his back, Woodley hasn’t looked great, and that probably fills Usman with confidence. But it’s whether he can get to that stage without being hit heavily – and if he does eat a shot, whether his chin can take it – that’s the big question mark.
Secondly, what happens if Usman can’t get Woodley down, and vice versa? We’ve seen on numerous occasions that great wrestlers often cancel each other out, and at 170lbs they don’t get much better than these two. In a pure stand-up affair though, it becomes hard to pick; Woodley isn’t the most natural kickboxer but he has devastating power in both his punches and his leg kicks, while Usman is still largely a work in progress – but judging by his Dos Anjos fight, he’s happy to put together some nasty combinations.
Both men rely on the threat of their takedown to really open up with their striking, though – and that may not be a factor here. I wouldn’t actually be surprised if we get a staring contest in fact with Usman worried about closing the distance due to Woodley’s counters, and Woodley happier to wait for an opportunity to throw said counters. Hopefully, that won’t be the case, though.
This is an incredibly hard fight to pick in my opinion, as Usman’s chin is so untested that we just don’t know what will happen if he does get cracked by Woodley. I’m actually leaning towards the challenger, though; we have seen Woodley on his back before and it wasn’t pretty. I think Usman can get inside and perhaps two or three takedowns across the fight might then be enough to win him the title due to Woodley’s relative inactivity – assuming he doesn’t land that crushing counter, of course.
The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision
#3 Robbie Lawler vs. Ben Askren
Hardcore fans have been patiently waiting for former Bellator Welterweight champ Ben Askren to debut in the UFC for years, and now it’s finally happening as he takes on former UFC champion Robbie Lawler. This is a huge moment for ‘Funky Ben’ as if he can win impressively, he could well net a title shot – that is assuming his good friend and training partner Tyron Woodley loses his title to Usman. Lose, however, and the haters who labeled him boring and overrated – in the past, Dana White included – will be vindicated.
The crazy thing is that Askren could’ve come to the UFC way back in 2013 after ending his contract with Bellator – but due to a dispute with Dana White over various things, he ended up moving to ONE FC where he racked up a further six wins before retiring in 2017. Of course, last October came the stunning announcement that he’d been traded to the UFC with former Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson going the other way. Essentially, he’s a huge signing – but can he live up to the hype?
As everyone who’s ever seen him fight is well aware, Askren’s strengths lie purely in his grappling game. He’s not a great striker by any means but he probably wouldn’t claim to be, nor is he an explosive wrestler capable of shooting blast double legs ala Woodley or Josh Koscheck. He is, however, a ridiculously skilled wrestler arguably a level above any we’ve seen in the UFC in a long time.
An NCAA Division I champion in 2006 and 2007 and a four-time All American, Askren competed in the 2008 Olympics for the USA in freestyle wrestling, although he didn’t achieve a medal. What makes Askren such a dangerous MMA wrestler though is his unorthodox, or ‘funky’ style – meaning he’s more willing to risk questionable positions in the cage in order to gain an advantage over his opponents.
That tendency led him into trouble on a couple of occasions during his Bellator career – where he went 9-0, picking up wins over Douglas Lima and Andrey Koreshkov in the process – but it’s also allowed him to develop a dangerous submission game, although he seems to prefer to overwhelm his opponent with ground strikes in ridiculous volume – like death by a thousand cuts.
So how does he match up with Lawler? Well, it’s a bit hard to say. 4 years ago Lawler likely would’ve been a nightmare match for Askren – his takedown defense was excellent and he’d used his vicious striking skills and apparently endless stamina to take out top wrestlers like Josh Koscheck, Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger. Sure, he’d had trouble with grapplers during his StrikeForce days, but that was largely at 185lbs and didn’t seem to be an issue for him in the UFC.
That was 4 years ago, though. Since then he’s been through a pair of insane wars with Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit – the kind of wars that take years off a career – and was knocked out by Tyron Woodley to lose his Welterweight title. Most recently, he lost to Rafael Dos Anjos in relatively one-sided fashion in what was largely a kickboxing match. Even that was over a year ago, though. Basically, there’s no recent evidence that Lawler can be easily outwrestled, but there’s also no recent evidence that he’s not close to the end of his career either.
I believe this fight likely comes down to how far gone Lawler is – if we get the slower, shopworn Lawler we saw against Dos Anjos then I can’t see any result other than Askren simply dragging him to the ground and outgrappling him for a three-round decision or a possible submission late in the fight. If Lawler is back in his 2015 Beast Mode though, then he could definitely hurt and finish Askren standing before one takedown is even completed.
In the end, I’ve bet on fighters who are past their prime before and it’s come back to bite me; Lawler looked completely finished against Dos Anjos and also tore his ACL during the fight and that’s a tricky injury for anyone to come back from, let alone a guy who’s 36 and has the kind of mileage on him that Lawler does. I can see ‘Ruthless’ hurting Askren a couple of times, but I expect ‘Funky Ben’ to drag him into a grappling match and beat him there, making good on his UFC debut.
The Pick: Askren via unanimous decision
#4 Tecia Torres vs. Weili Zhang
This match of Strawweight contenders should be interesting, as it pits a hot prospect against possibly the best gatekeeper in the division. At 29, it’s likely that Tecia Torres has now peaked as a fighter, and so after losses to Rose Namajunas (the current champ), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (the former champ) and Jessica Andrade (the next title challenger) it doesn’t seem like she’ll ever truly contend for the title. That’s fine though, as she could easily spend years in the UFC knocking off potential contenders looking to break into that area.
Weili Zhang is definitely one of those fighters. She’s 2-0 in the UFC thus far with impressive wins over tough opposition – Danielle Taylor and Jessica Aguilar – and appears to be China’s best hope for a UFC champion in the near future. At 5’4” she’s 3 inches taller than Torres, and appears to have completely well-rounded skills – of her 18 career wins, 9 have come by KO or TKO while 7 have come by submission.
Footage on her shows a pretty wild striker, as she wades in throwing punching combinations and plenty of spinning kicks usually with full power, before looking to muscle her opponents down from the clinch. It’s an interesting match for Torres, who dealt well with Michelle Waterson’s karate-based offense by using her wrestling and boxing – can she do the same to Zhang?
The thing that makes this fight tricky to pick is Torres’s lack of striking power. She’s a pretty good technical striker who throws strikes in combinations and with tremendous speed, but she just doesn’t knock people out – of her 10 professional wins, 9 of them have gone the distance with the lone finish being her 2017 submission of Julianna Lima. And notably, she actually outstruck Jessica Andrade at times during their fight, but simply couldn’t hurt the Brazilian while she was stunned numerous times in return.
Zhang might be wild on the feet, but she clearly throws with power – and while Torres is clearly tough as she lasted the distance with both Andrade and Jedrzejczyk, the judges obviously favor harder-hitting strikes as opposed to a lot of volume with minimal damage. I’d say Torres should look to grapple with Zhang instead, but even that might be tricky given the Chinese fighter’s venomous ground game.
The only thing stopping me picking Zhang comfortably here, to be honest, is the fact that outside of a loss on The Ultimate Fighter to Randa Markos, Torres has never been stopped and she definitely knows how to win – she could certainly grind out three rounds over Zhang in the same way she did to Waterson in December 2017. But that’s contingent on Zhang’s ceiling being lower than Andrade, Jedrzejczyk and Namajunas – and Torres still being able to fight to that level after 2 straight losses.
I’m going to take a risk and go with Zhang, although I don’t think she’ll stop Torres and it will likely be a super-close fight – I wouldn’t be surprised if the big moments in the fight belong to ‘Magnum’ but the judges decide to go for Torres based on more cage control.
The Pick: Zhang via split decision
#5 Cody Garbrandt vs. Pedro Munhoz
The main card will open with a fantastic-sounding fight in what is arguably the UFC’s most stacked division right now, as former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt faces off with Pedro Munhoz, who is 6-1 in his last 7 fights and could easily have been 7-0 with different judges in his fight with John Dodson. Essentially, this should tell us whether Garbrandt can ever recapture the magic that saw him dethrone Dominick Cruz in December 2016, and also whether Munhoz can ever become a legitimate title contender.
In terms of how these two match up, you’d have to say that Munhoz is the more rounded fighter. He’s more of a kickboxer than Garbrandt – who is almost purely a puncher – and loves to throw leg kicks and in particular, a nasty body kick – one of which took out Bryan Caraway late in 2018. He’s also an extremely dangerous grappler, with the guillotine choke being his go-to move. ‘The Young Punisher’ has 6 guillotine wins in his career, 3 of which came in the UFC.
Garbrandt meanwhile is one of the best boxers in the division, with some excellent movement and footwork that makes him hard to track down – as evidenced when he was able to largely outstrike the seemingly untouchable Cruz. He carries tremendous knockout power, and has turned the lights out on 9 different opponents – including 4 in the Octagon.
Outside of his two losses to TJ Dillashaw – and a serious back problem that saw him sidelined for a few months in 2018 – ‘No Love’ has been perfect inside the UFC. But the Dillashaw losses exposed a couple of worrying flaws in his game; firstly he became far too emotionally involved in the feud between the two, which caused him to make mistakes, and secondly, he throws with such power that he sometimes telegraphs his shots – making him a hittable target for a more fleet-footed striker.
Thankfully for him, Munhoz is not a more fleet-footed striker than him. He’s good, sure, but he’s also more of a plodding, power Muay Thai-based kickboxer, rather than the footwork-focused machine that is Dillashaw. The likelihood of Munhoz catching Garbrandt with a counter like Dillashaw did seems pretty slim. If anything, I suspect Garbrandt could use his own speed and footwork to catch Munhoz on the feet.
Munhoz has never been finished by strikes – in fact, he’s never been finished, period – but then he’s never come up against someone capable of hitting as hard as Garbrandt, who clearly has unusual power at 135lbs. He’s also not an incredible wrestler – meaning unless Garbrandt decides to go for a takedown, this fight is likely to stay vertical for as long as ‘No Love’ decides.
I could see Munhoz surviving the distance here but I think Garbrandt will want to send a message, and so I’m taking him to become the first fighter to stop ‘The Young Punisher’, probably around the halfway mark.
The Pick: Garbrandt via second-round TKO
#6 The Prelims: ESPN card
It’s a testament to the depth of this card that the four prelims being televised on ESPN could probably make a pretty solid Fight Night card in their own right. Headlining the prelims are Featherweight contenders Jeremy Stephens and Zabit Magomedsharipov. After whitewashing his first 4 opponents in the UFC to go 16-1 overall, this is Zabit’s chance to prove he’s a title threat, but Stephens isn’t likely to go down without a fight – he was on a 3 fight win streak before being stopped by Jose Aldo last summer.
If Magomedsharipov can stick to a grappling-based gameplan then he ought to win this one; Stephens has been outgrappled before by the likes of Charles Oliveira and Renato Moicano, and Magomedsharipov combines excellent wrestling with a deadly submission game. But his penchant for wild striking trades could prove to be horribly dangerous against a striker who carries the power that Stephens does. I’m taking Zabit by submission – figuring he’ll play it smart – but this could definitely go the other way.
At Light-Heavyweight, Misha Cirkunov takes on Johnny Walker, who is stepping in for Ovince St. Preux on late notice. This is a cool fight but I don’t really like it, as both men are outstanding prospects in a thin division and could both make it into title contention if they keep winning – which obviously, one won’t after Saturday. Walker is the man with the hype right now after stunning knockouts of Khalil Rountree and Justin Ledet, but I worry for him against a grappler as powerful as Cirkunov. I’m going with Cirkunov here as I think he can ground Walker and submit him, but to see Walker pull off another stunningly violent knockout wouldn’t shock me either.
Cody Stamann returns at 135lbs to face off with Alejandro Perez in what could be an exciting fight that should see the winner vault into the top 15 at Bantamweight. A tough, well-rounded fighter, Stamann saw a 10-fight winning streak – and almost his leg – snapped by Aljamain Sterling in September, while Perez hasn’t tasted defeat in 7 fights and has been steadily improving since winning TUF: Latin America back in 2014. This one’s a tough fight to pick but I’m leaning towards the more grinding offense of Stamann to win a decision over the more dynamic ‘El Diablito’.
Finally, UFC legend and inaugural TUF winner Diego Sanchez steps into the Octagon for his 40th professional fight and his 29th in the UFC. He’ll face Mickey Gall, the young prospect who became famous as the man who beat up CM Punk in the former WWE champion’s UFC debut. Sanchez is miles past his prime but I actually like him to win here; Gall isn’t a great striker yet and realistically, nobody has ever truly outgrappled Sanchez in the Octagon and it’s his chin that’s cracked, not his insane cardio. I like Diego to win a surprising decision here.
#8 The Prelims: Fight Pass card
The Fight Pass prelims for UFC 235 will be headlined by a pair of Middleweights, as Edmen Shahbazyan faces Charles Byrd in a battle of Dana White’s Contender Series graduates. Shahbazyan surprised everyone by wrestling Darren Stewart to win his UFC debut after coming in with a reputation as a striker, while Byrd was actually beaten by Stewart in his last UFC outing. I don’t like to use ‘MMAth’ as people call it but Shahbazyan showed surprising potential against Stewart and so I think he’ll have enough to outwork Byrd – who seemed to tire against the Brit – for a decision.
At Bantamweight, Gina Mazany faces TUF winner Macy Chiasson, who will be making her debut at 135lbs after winning the reality show at 145lbs. Chiasson showed some real skills during her time on the show and at 5’9” she’ll be a rangy fighter at Bantamweight. She has a lot less experience than Mazany, but I think her physical gifts will pull her through as ‘Danger’ has tended to lose to superior athletes in her previous fights.
Exciting Bantamweight Marlon Vera faces a tough test against Frankie Saenz, who was once ranked in the top ten back in 2015. Saenz is a hard-nosed wrestler but he isn’t all that well-rounded, and that might put him in trouble against Vera who is offensively venomous in all areas, even if his takedown defense isn’t that good. If Vera tires out then Saenz could grind a decision out here, but I suspect Vera will stop him – probably via strikes – before the final buzzer.
Finally, Polyana Viana faces Hannah Cifers at Strawweight, with both women probably fighting for their spot in the UFC given neither showed a lot in their last fight. Both women have similar records – a lot of wins over largely overmatched opposition – but I’ll take Viana based on the fact that she at least looked good in her UFC debut in 2017. Viana via submission is my pick.
