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After three straight shows at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, the UFC presents its fourth this weekend in the form of UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker.
The Lightweight main event should undoubtedly be one of the most highly anticipated clashes of 2020, and while there isn’t much of substance underneath, Poirier vs. Hooker is the kind of fight that should be considered must-see by any MMA fan.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker.
#1 UFC Lightweight Division: Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker
This fight feels like it’s been a long time in the making. Hooker initially called Poirier out following his October victory over Al Iaquinta at UFC 243, only for ‘The Diamond’ to essentially tell the native of New Zealand to get another big win first.
‘The Hangman’ did just that in February, outpointing Paul Felder in a five-round war at UFC Fight Night 168, and evidently that was enough to convince Poirier that the fight was a worthy one.
Poirier is of course the more high-profile of the two; a lengthy winning streak starting in 2017 took him all the way to main events on Fox and finally a win over Max Holloway at UFC 236 for the Interim Lightweight title last year. Sure, he was soundly defeated by Khabib Nurmagomedov when they eventually fought at UFC 242, but there’s no shame in that.
Hooker meanwhile has been fantastic ever since he moved back to Lightweight in 2017. A run of four straight stoppages – including a knockout of current top Welterweight contender Gilbert Burns at UFC 226 – put him into a showcase against Edson Barboza on the final UFC on Fox show. While he was eventually stopped in the third round, he showed inhuman toughness to survive a serious beating.
That kind of beating can often change a fighter’s career for the worse, but Hooker bounced back admirably in 2019, defeating James Vick at UFC on ESPN 4 before easily piecing up Iaquinta. So how do these two match up?
First and foremost, both men are strikers. Sure, they’re both solid grapplers too – they both have 7 tapouts on their ledger – but most recently, their kickboxing games have really come to the fore.
With that in mind, the big question to me becomes how Poirier deals with the lanky style and long reach of Hooker.
‘The Diamond’ has developed his striking over the years and now tends to attack his opponent with a brutal pressure-boxing game built around his ability to string combinations together, and his apparently sixth sense to know exactly when to turn up the heat on a hurt opponent to finish them off.
There are drawbacks to that style, though. Sure, Poirier beat Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Anthony Pettis en route to his clash with Khabib, but he also took a hell of a lot of punishment along the way. More relevantly for this fight, in all of those fights, ‘The Diamond’ held an advantage in terms of reach and range.
The last time he was faced with a striker who had a reach advantage? His 2016 clash with Michael Johnson, a fight that saw him knocked out in the first round. And before that, it was Conor McGregor at UFC 178, and well, you can see the pattern.
That means that to beat Hooker, Poirier has to find a way inside of that long reach to do his damage without taking too much in return. And for me, that’s going to be very tricky.
Hooker doesn’t hit with the concussive power of McGregor and I’d argue he’s not as fast as Johnson, but he’s extremely accurate and uses his 6’0” frame along with his 75” reach to excellent results. His win over Iaquinta was based almost completely around his use of jabs and low kicks to break ‘Ragin Al’ down. Once he’d done that, he was able to land heavier combinations that had Iaquinta in trouble.
Against Felder meanwhile, he attempted to carry off the same gameplan, but ended up being drawn into an out-and-out shootout at times. And somehow ‘The Hangman’ endured insane punishment, just as he’d done against Barboza, to survive for the win.
Essentially to me, this is a trickier fight for Poirier because to win, not only has he got to get into range by avoiding Hooker’s longer strikes, but when he’s there he’s essentially got to out-brawl the Kiwi as he did to the likes of Gaethje and Alvarez. And while both of those men wilted under the pressure, there’s no evidence that Hooker will do the same.
Overall I’d say this one could go either way, but I prefer Hooker’s chances as he could build a lead using his jab and low kicks early before even being drawn into a shootout. Given that Poirier’s been knocked out before while Hooker was only TKO’d after taking insane punishment, I can’t see him wilting here.
The Pick: Hooker via fourth round TKO
#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall
Usually you’d expect a fight like this to have plenty of build in terms of trash talk, but both Perry and Gall have been relatively quiet during the past couple of weeks. Perhaps, because this whole show feels like it’s been thrown together by the UFC on late notice.
The fight is, in essence, a classic striker vs. grappler clash. Sure, Perry has a decent wrestling background and sure, Gall has been working hard on his kickboxing since his 2016 debut at UFC Fight Night 82, but both fighters would probably be silly to attempt to go after the other in their own realm.
It’s for that reason that I’m leaning firmly towards Perry taking the win here. Outside of anything else, the experience levels of the two men are absolutely poles apart.
Perry started fighting professionally about a year before Gall, but over time he’s had 19 fights, 11 more than Gall. Gall’s experience has come almost purely in the UFC. He was brought in at 1-0 to be set up as CM Punk’s first opponent at UFC 203, but he essentially remains what he was upon his debut.
He’s less raw than back then, but he’s still an excellent grappler with an eye for a finish, largely through some kind of choke. In fact, his most recent decision win over Salim Touahri at UFC on ESPN 5 was the first time he’d ever won a fight by anything but a rear naked choke.
At 6’2”, Gall is a tall, lanky Welterweight who possesses a long reach at 74”. However, on the feet he’s shown no real abilities to fight behind a jab or anything like that. He knocked Michael Jackson down with wild punches in his UFC debut and is a willing striker, as we saw against Sage Northcutt. But in reality everything he does is designed to set up his ground game.
Perry on the other hand is one of the most concussive punchers in the division. He’s been compared to former UFC star Phil Baroni on more than one occasion due to his heavy hands and outspoken style. But where ‘The New York Bad Ass’ was almost purely a boxer with some wrestling, ‘Platinum’ is more well-rounded.
Sure, he throws his punches with the same brute force as Baroni did, but the native of Florida also uses powerful leg kicks, elbows and knees from the clinch, and his cardio is also better than Baroni’s ever was. He is a brawler at heart, but we’ve also seen flashes of his more technical side, particularly during his wins over Paul Felder at UFC 226 and Alex Oliveira at UFC Fight Night 150.
To win this one, Gall is going to have to get Perry down extremely early, and get a dominant position to finish him off. I don’t think his cardio is good enough to outgrapple ‘Platinum’ for three rounds. Nor do I think he can afford to stand with him for too long, as despite owning a reach advantage, his defense just isn’t good enough to prevent Perry from landing something big.
With all that in mind, I think Perry will shrug off some early takedown attempts before landing one of his trademark bombs later in the first round to seal the deal.
The Pick: Perry via first round KO
#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Gian Villante vs. Maurice Greene
Like any non-elite level UFC Heavyweight bout, the hope for this one is clearly that the two men exchange bombs until one goes down, preferably early on. If that doesn’t happen, we could be in for a horrible slop-fest with both men gassing out and turning the Octagon into a bar right before closing time.
Greene’s UFC career in itself has been somewhat of an enigma thus far. A huge man who stands at 6’7” and has to cut to make the 265lbs weight limit, ‘The Crochet Boss’ came into the UFC from TUF 28 with relatively low levels of experience at 5-2.
Portrayed as a heavy-hitting brawler during the show, he surprised everyone by using a slick triangle choke to pick up his first UFC win on the Finale card. He then pulled off two more wins over solid opposition in the form of Jeff Hughes at UFC Fight Night 146 and Junior Albini at UFC on ESPN 5.
Since then he’s been beaten by Sergei Pavlovich – one of the more underrated fighters on the roster – and most recently Alexei Oleinik at UFC 246, but only after surprising the Ukrainian with his own grappling acumen. Quicker and more athletic than you’d expect for a man of his size, Greene has finishing ability in all areas and really, only a lack of experience at the top level holds him back.
Villante, on the other hand, has plenty of experience. He’s been in the UFC since 2013, and before that, he was a StrikeForce veteran with 5 fights in that promotion. With 28 fights to his name – 15 of them in the UFC – he’s got more than double the experience of Greene.
A collegiate standout in American football, Villante is a high-level athlete who moves well and hits hard, using primarily a boxing game on the feet. He’s never been a really accomplished grappler, but he was an NCAA Division I All-American in college and tends to use his defensive wrestling well to keep the fight standing.
So why’s he never quite reached his potential in the UFC? Essentially, it’s down to a lack of defense. Villante has always been too happy to involve himself in firefights, swinging haymakers with the idea being that he’ll simply land the harder, faster punches.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t always been correct. He’s picked up big wins over the likes of Corey Anderson and Anthony Perosh, but he’s also suffered some pretty bad losses and has been stopped by strikes on 3 occasions. And it’s worth noting that those fights were at 205lbs – he’s now stepping up to fight heavier hitters.
I’m tempted to favour Villante here. His experience levels mean he should be more comfortable when it comes to fight time and theoretically he’s the better striker. But the problem for him will be his penchant for brawling and the fact that he’s giving up a lot of height and reach.
To win this fight, the New Yorker will have to get inside to rough Greene up, and he may struggle to do that given the surprisingly decent technique of ‘The Crochet Boss’ as well as his speed. If this turns into a gassed-out slop-fest then I’d say Villante has enough to wear him out, but I suspect that instead, we’ll get a wild and short fire-fight, with Greene turning the lights out on his more experienced foe.
The Pick: Greene via first round KO
#4 UFC Middleweight Division: Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus
Initially, this Middleweight fight would’ve seen Allen facing off with the highly ranked Ian Heinisch, but with ‘The Hurricane’ sidelined with an injury, he’ll face UFC newcomer Daukaus instead. And sure, while there’s no name value to the fight now, this could actually be a really good clash between two excellent young prospects.
Allen came into the UFC in 2019 after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, and immediately made a splash by choking out veteran Kevin Holland. It was his second fight though – a first round TKO of the tough and technical Tom Breese – that really opened eyes.
Fighting out of the Roufusport camp, ‘All In’ is explosive, clearly hits hard, and appears to have a decent ground game too. Sure, he has some losses on his record during his pre-UFC days, but given that he’s only 24 years old, and his last loss came when he was 22, it’s fair to say he’s still got plenty of time to develop.
The fact that he’s not been finished by strikes yet – and went the distance in a loss to heavy hitter Eryk Anders – is also promising.
Daukaus is also a veteran of the Contender Series, as he picked up a decision win there in 2019 but wasn’t immediately signed by the UFC. At 9-0 he’s less experienced than Allen, but he’s also unbeaten, and has finished 8 of his wins via submission, particularly favouring the rare brabo choke. Despite being a low-percentage move, Daukaus has won with it 5 times.
Judging by what I’ve seen from both men – which admittedly isn’t all that much – I’d favour Allen slightly in this one. ‘All In’ is seemingly a better striker, and while Daukaus appears to be an excellent grappler, I’m not sure he’ll have a full advantage on the ground as Allen appears to be equally capable with 8 tapouts to his name, too.
Add in the fact that Allen has UFC experience – perhaps not as big a deal during these behind-closed-doors shows – and that Daukaus is taking the fight on pretty late notice, and it’s hard not to suspect that ‘All In’ can pull off his third straight win. I’ll take him to win via a late TKO stoppage.
The Pick: Allen via third round TKO
#5 The Prelims: ESPN card
All of this weekend’s prelims will be broadcast by the UFC on ESPN. It’s also expected that one of these fights will be elevated onto the main card to replace a cancelled Bantamweight fight between Aspen Ladd and Sara McMann, but as of writing, which fight will be chosen hasn’t been confirmed.
At the top of the preliminary card – and thus unlikely to be moved to the main card – is a Lightweight clash between Luis Pena and Khama Worthy.
Better known as ‘Violent Bob Ross’, Pena had high hopes in the UFC coming off a run on TUF, but thus far he’s somewhat flattered to deceive. Aggressive to a fault, Pena will attack his opponent from all kinds of wild angles, but he’s also struggled with defense at times and has been open to being grinded down by fighters willing to drag him into a gutter-war.
Worthy only has one UFC outing to his name – an upset knockout of Devonte Smith in a fight he took on late notice. It’s worth stating that Smith and Worthy were former training partners, which may have had an effect on the outcome. ‘The Deathstar’ is a solidly rounded fighter who relies primarily on his boxing and heavy hands, but he’s got a ton of experience dating back to 2012.
I’m going with Pena here; unless he wades in with his chin up and allows Worthy to catch him with a clean shot, I think he’s the better wrestler and grappler and should be able to drag ‘The Deathstar’ down to the ground and outwork him there. Pena via late submission is my pick.
At Heavyweight, Brazil’s Philipe Lins faces Canadian Tanner Boser. A grinder by nature, Boser will probably be happy to exchange blows with the slightly smaller Lins, hoping that his chin can hold up and the Brazilian will tire out down the stretch.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. Boser is tough – he withstood three rounds of offense from Ciryl Gane at UFC Fight Night 163 – but he’s also plodding, appears to be at a speed disadvantage, and doesn’t hit overly hard for a big man. Prior to his UFC days, Lins made his name chopping down similar fighters like Jared Rosholt and Josh Copeland in the PFL promotion, and so I think he’ll do the same thing here. Lins by TKO is my pick.
In a 150lbs Catchweight fight, Kyle Nelson goes head-to-head with Sean Woodson. I like Woodson in this one; he seems to be a touch quicker than Nelson, hits extremely hard and puts his strikes together very well. Nelson is tough and has more experience, but I feel like he’s overmatched standing in this one and so I’ll take Woodson by TKO.
At Flyweight, prospect Miranda Maverick debuts against UFC veteran Mara Romero Borella, who fought just a month ago in a loss to Cortney Casey. Borella has shown flashes of potential, but just doesn’t seem quite athletic enough to succeed at the very top level of the UFC. It’s telling that neither opponent that she beat in the Octagon have a UFC win to their name.
Maverick on the other hand is just 22 years old, and while she’s only 7-2, her wins over Pearl Gonzalez and DeAnna Bennett – both tough UFC veterans – are impressive. It’d be fair to say in fact that both women would be favoured over Borella. Add in the lack of crowd – which should lessen Octagon shock – and I’m happy to go with Maverick to win a decision.
At Welterweight, UFC newcomer Ramiz Brahimaj faces Japan’s Takashi Sato. This one is tricky to pick; Sato has far more experience including a solid UFC win over veteran Ben Saunders, but Brahimaj looks athletic, dangerous and has a nasty ability to sink chokes on his opponents using his long arms. To me this is a toss-up, but I think Sato’s experience may see him through to win a decision.
In a Featherweight clash, Jordan Griffin faces Youssef Zalal. This is a battle of two tremendous nicknames – ‘The Native Psycho’ and ‘The Moroccan Devil’, and both men are coming off their first UFC wins. Both appear to be more grappling-based fighters, so expect this one to land on the mat at some point. Overall I’m favouring Griffin, as he has much more experience, has beaten better opponents, and looks like the physically stronger man too. Griffin via decision is my pick.
Finally at Strawweight, newcomers Jinh Yu Frey and Kay Hansen do battle. The former Invicta Atomweight champion, Frey has an extensive record against tricky opponents and has solid skills in all areas. Hansen is far less experienced – she’s 20 years old, 15 years younger than Frey – but has also been fighting primarily in Invicta prior to joining the UFC.
This one could come down to sheer strength and size; a natural 115lber, Hansen is bigger than Frey, who has been outwrestled in some of her previous fights. Given the age gap too, there’s every chance that Hansen will simply outmuscle Frey for a decision win, and so that’s my pick.
