'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,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'%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
This weekend sees perhaps the biggest UFC show of 2020 go down on Abu Dhabi’s Fight Island. UFC 254 sees the return of undefeated UFC Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. He faces off with interim champ Justin Gaethje in one of the most highly anticipated fights in some time.
The card isn’t all that deep outside of the main event, having lost a number of fights to COVID-19, but with a number of solid clashes filling the undercard, it should nonetheless be fun.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje.
#1 UFC Lightweight Title: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
Despite previous UFC events featuring massive fights such as Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone, Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier, and Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa, it’s safe to say that this one might be the biggest of 2020.
Nurmagomedov – arguably the UFC’s biggest star since McGregor’s pseudo-retirement earlier this year – hasn’t fought since September 2019’s UFC 242. That event saw him thoroughly dominate another interim UFC Lightweight champ, in that instance, Dustin Poirier. So can he do the same to the current one?
Gaethje, of course, wasn’t supposed to have this shot at Khabib. UFC 249, back in April, should’ve seen The Eagle finally defending his title against Tony Ferguson. But naturally, for the most cursed fight in UFC history, fate stepped in, this time in the form of COVID-19.
UFC 249 was thus postponed, and when the event was rescheduled for May, it had to go ahead without Nurmagomedov. The Russian simply couldn’t get into the US, and Ferguson then made the error of agreeing to fight Gaethje instead, with the interim UFC Lightweight belt on the line.
Of course, what followed was Gaethje’s biggest win to date. Ferguson had been on a massive 12-fight win streak, but The Highlight simply destroyed him over five rounds. Showing far more patience than he’d done before, Gaethje timed his strikes perfectly and broke El Cucuy down with his brutal punching power.
Whether he’ll be able to do the same to Nurmagomedov, though, is another thing entirely. On paper, at least, Gaethje does sound like a difficult match for the reigning UFC champion. Firstly, The Highlight is probably the most powerful striker in the UFC’s Lightweight division. His leg kicks are absolutely vicious, and his punching power is unparalleled, as we saw in his KO wins over Cerrone and Edson Barboza.
More to the point, Gaethje is also a genuinely excellent wrestler. Is he going to look to double leg his opponents to the ground? Well, no. In fact, Gaethje has rarely looked for takedowns throughout his entire MMA career.
However, as an NCAA Division I All-American, he’s well-versed in that realm and has rarely been taken down in the UFC. And when he has been put on the ground, he’s always been able to bounce back up.
But then the same was said for previous opponents of Nurmagomedov like Abel Trujillo, Michael Johnson, and Poirier. And to date, nobody has been able to stop the Dagestani’s takedowns. And it’s not like Khabib is a grappler and nothing but, either.
In fact, his stand-up has improved to the point where he was able to use his jab to comfortably outbox Al Iaquinta in their 2018 fight. And unforgettably, he also dropped McGregor with a right hand in their infamous clash at UFC 229.
Essentially, what makes Nurmagomedov such a difficult opponent isn’t so much his wrestling skill nor his striking. It’s actually the fact that even for a Lightweight, he’s deceptively fast. Nurmagomedov can close the distance seemingly faster than any other fighter, and once he’s got a hold of his opponent, they’re usually going to hit the deck.
Sure, he’s looked hittable at times – most notably against Johnson in 2016 – but his chin has always held up, and like everyone else, Johnson was eventually grounded and mauled.
Gaethje certainly has a chance to win here. He’s got the power in his hands to knock out anyone, even Nurmagomedov. But can he really prevent The Eagle from closing the distance and grabbing him? If he can’t do that, then he’s going to be driven into the fence and taken down, and from there, he’s probably going to lose.
I’m betting that for all of his improvements in patience, Gaethje just isn’t going to be quite fast enough to stop that takedown. It’ll be business as usual as Nurmagomedov surprises everyone yet again with how quickly he can get inside, and once Gaethje’s on his back, he’ll be doomed. I’m going with the UFC champ to retain his title by rear-naked choke again.
The Pick: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission
#2 UFC Middleweight division: Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier
Considering how easily Israel Adesanya dealt with Paulo Costa, there’s every chance that this fight's winner could be the next challenger for the UFC Middleweight title. Sure, it’d be a hard sell for Whittaker to take that fight given Adesanya also destroyed him. But with wins over Darren Till and Cannonier, it’d probably be fair game.
So will the UFC be hoping that Cannonier can pull the win out here? It’s hard to say. On one hand, he’d be the fresher challenger for the title, but on the other hand, he’d almost certainly feel like ‘challenger of the month’ fodder for Adesanya.
To be fair, that might be harsh on The Killa Gorilla. He’s been absolutely fantastic since moving down to 185lbs, reeling off three wins in a row to take his overall UFC record to 6-4. However, it’s still a little difficult to take him all that seriously as a contender.
That’s because his three wins at Middleweight all came with somewhat of a caveat. David Branch is a fantastic grappler, but he’s also always been susceptible in fights with better wrestlers and harder hitters. And UFC legend Anderson Silva was obviously years past his prime when he faced Cannonier.
That leaves Jack Hermansson, and sure, that win was a great one for The Killa Gorilla. He negated the Swede’s tricky movement and striking, never allowed him to establish his grappling, and then turned his lights out early in the second round.
I’m not too sure that he matches up well with Whittaker, however. The Reaper was taken out easily by Adesanya and also struggled with Till early in their fight, but once he’d found a rhythm against the latter, he took over to largely dominate on the feet.
The former UFC Middleweight champ has a number of attributes that make him a truly brilliant fighter. Firstly, he’s always had an underrated sense of balance and timing when it comes to being able to avoid takedowns. And that’s paid off for him in his wins over great wrestlers like Yoel Romero and Derek Brunson.
Secondly, his speed for a 185lber is phenomenal, and that allows him to catch opponents unawares with strikes they may not be expecting. Add in his incredible killer instinct when it comes to finishing opponents, and you’ve got a handful for anyone in the division.
Whittaker’s one weakness appears to be against pinpoint-accurate strikers. He’s been KO’d twice in the UFC, once against Stephen Thompson and once against Adesanya – and it’s no surprise that both men have phenomenal accuracy and timing. Whittaker appeared to struggle with his timing in both fights, became too wild, and found himself eating heavy shots.
Thankfully for him, though, Cannonier isn’t one of those precision strikers. He’s less of a sniper and more of a tank, looking to smash anything he hits. The problem for him here is that Whittaker isn’t going to provide him with a static target, nor will the Australian fear his takedown.
Add in the fact that we’ve seen Cannonier KO’d twice in the UFC before – once at Heavyweight and once at Light Heavyweight – and it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Whittaker could catch him cleanly and finish him off.
For me, the speed difference between the two will probably be too much for Cannonier to handle, making this fight reminiscent of Whittaker’s UFC wins over Brunson, Brad Tavares, and Jacare Souza. Therefore, I’ve got to go with the former UFC champ by TKO.
The Pick: Whittaker via second-round TKO
#3 UFC Heavyweight division: Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris
Erase the previous UFC fight from both of these men, and this could well be a top contender’s match. Before facing Alistair Overeem in May, Harris had reeled off four wins in a row in the UFC, defeating the tough Aleksei Oleinik by KO in his most impressive showing to date.
However, tragedy then struck. Harris’ stepdaughter was kidnapped and murdered, naturally causing him to miss months of action. And when he returned to fight Overeem, he seemed far too emotional and failed to capitalize on an early knockdown, eventually losing by TKO.
Overall, The Big Ticket is an interesting fighter. He’s 7-7 in the UFC overall but has steadily improved over the years to the point where he’s highly dangerous. At 6’5” and 250lbs, he’s one of the bigger men on the UFC’s roster, but he’s also surprisingly quick for a man of his size and holds crushing power in his hands.
Where Harris has tended to struggle has been against ground fighters. He was easily submitted by Fabricio Werdum, for instance, and also struggled badly once Overeem planted him on his back. It’s probably worth questioning how well he’d do against a very technical striker as well, purely because we’ve never seen him really face one outside of Overeem – who did knock him down leading to the finish.
Harris’ gameplan here will probably be an attempt to replicate Derrick Lewis’ knockout of Volkov from UFC 229. Obviously, that fight saw Lewis take a tremendous amount of punishment before landing his big shot, which Harris won’t want to copy. However, the way that The Black Beast looped a right hand over the top to put Volkov away should definitely be something he looks for.
Essentially though, that’ll be tricky. Volkov has lost two of his last three fights, but outside of that, he’s been perfect in the UFC, going 5-2 overall. His wins over Fabricio Werdum and Stefan Struve showed him to be an excellent finisher, but it’s his fight with Greg Hardy that should be most telling here.
In that fight, Drago dealt with a superb, giant athlete by simply keeping him on the end of his jabs and leg kicks for three rounds. It wasn’t entertaining, but Hardy never came close to hurting him at any stage. Harris is probably a more polished fighter than Hardy right now, but there are definitely some parallels between the two. They’re both explosive athletes with KO power, but neither has a lot of finesse to their game.
To add to this, Volkov also has a massive advantage on the ground. Curtis Blaydes did expose Volkov’s wrestling somewhat, but Harris isn’t likely to shoot for takedowns anyway. And if Drago can put Harris on his back, then there’s every chance he keeps him down and does some damage.
Overall, Harris can win this fight if he can land a big shot. He’s got KO power, he can finish, and Volkov’s chin isn’t the best. However, Drago simply has more ways to win, has a reach advantage, and is the more technically skilled fighter. It might not be entertaining, but I’m backing the Russian to pick up his sixth UFC win.
The Pick: Volkov via unanimous decision
#4 UFC Middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun
To say that this fight is a strange choice for a main card bout on a major UFC pay-per-view would be an understatement. Not only are both men making their UFC debuts, but Australia’s Malkoun is just 4-0 in his professional MMA career. In fact, he hasn’t fought since October 2019, and footage on him appears to be hard to come by.
From what is available, Mamba appears to be a decently well-rounded fighter. His striking looks solid if a little predictable, and his grappling doesn’t look half bad either. However, it’s not like he’s a renowned prospect. So how did such an inexperienced fighter earn a UFC contract?
The most likely explanation is his connection to former UFC Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker. Malkoun is one of Whittaker’s primary training partners, and has cornered him on numerous occasions.
And while he doesn’t have a reputation close to that of The Reaper, he did compete alongside him in 2019’s Asian ADCC grappling trials, qualifying for the prestigious tournament before withdrawing due to injury.
So how does he match up against fellow debutant Hawes? Well, it’s hard not to imagine him struggling somewhat. A vaunted prospect a handful of years ago, Hawes has taken the long route to the UFC. With a big reputation from the Jackson-Wink camp, Megatron emerged in 2014, sporting a cartoonish physique and a national junior college championship in wrestling.
However, after putting together a 3-0 record on the regional circuit, Hawes failed in an attempt to make it onto the 23rd season of The Ultimate Fighter. And in 2017, he lost another attempt at making it into the UFC when he was knocked out by Julian Marquez on Dana White’s Contender Series.
But Hawes continued to plug away, and after winning a further three fights, he returned to DWCS to pick up a TKO victory in September. Now aged 31, Hawes appears to have everything he needs – athletic ability, more honed skills and more experience – to succeed in the UFC.
Given the dearth of footage on Malkoun, it’s a little hard to say exactly how this fight will go. Training with Whittaker sounds like great preparation, but we’ve seen training partners of UFC greats struggle before. Names like Artem Lobov and Tiki Ghosn come to mind, but they only top the list really.
However, given that he seems to be a far lesser athlete than Hawes and has much less experience in MMA overall than Megatron, I’m going with the clear pick. Malkoun might come out more aggressively, but I suspect Hawes will use his wrestling to his advantage and abuse the Aussie physically, picking up a TKO win.
The Pick: Hawes via first-round TKO
#5 UFC Flyweight division: Lauren Murphy vs. Liliya Shakirova
It must be said, this is a curious fight for a UFC pay-per-view main card. Murphy is on an excellent run at Flyweight – she’s picked up three straight wins, including a victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Realistically, she’s probably two wins at most from a shot at the UFC Flyweight champion, whether that’s Valentina Shevchenko or Jennifer Maia.
This show would initially have seen her facing Cynthia Calvillo, and the winner could well have taken the next title shot. However, with Calvillo sidelined due to a positive COVID-19 test, newcomer Shakirova has stepped in on very short notice – less than a week. Can she spring an upset?
In all honesty, it’s doubtful. Judging by the very little footage available of her, Shakirova is a willing striker, but not one who’s all that skilled. The native of Uzbekistan appears to be a brawler first and foremost, winging hard shots at her opponent but not always landing cleanly.
On the ground, she seems passable enough too, but again, nothing from her clips appears to stand out. She certainly doesn’t appear to be a grappler on the level of Murphy’s previous opponent Modafferi. And with just nine fights on her record dating back to 2015 – largely against low-level opponents – there’s nothing to suggest she’s ready for this kind of level.
Overall, you have to credit the UFC here as they’ve been able to find Murphy an opponent on very late notice, meaning she can at least stay on the card. However, it does appear that Shakirova might’ve been the only woman willing to take such a tricky fight on such notice.
Murphy isn’t the best finisher on the UFC’s roster, but she hits hard, is excellent in all areas, and has finished lower-level opponents before. This, therefore, represents a good chance for her to pick up a highlight reel stoppage, pushing her claim for a UFC title shot even further.
It seems doubtful that Murphy can finish the newcomer in the opening round, as she’s only ever picked up one first-round stoppage in her whole career. But it’s easy to imagine her comfortably absorbing some aggression before working the newcomer over for a late TKO. I suspect, in fact, that she’ll do just that.
The Pick: Murphy via second-round TKO
#6 UFC Light Heavyweight division: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba
Incredibly, this marks the fifth time that the UFC have booked Ankalaev and Cutelaba to fight in 2020. The first time was way back in February, before COVID-19 and all of the issues that the virus has brought. At the time, it felt like a clash of two of the UFC Light Heavyweight division’s top prospects.
Unfortunately, though, it quickly became one of the most controversial fights in UFC history. The two men initially clashed during the in-cage introductions and were separated, and then worse was to come. Ankalaev appeared to have hurt Cutelaba with a series of strikes, but when ref Kevin MacDonald stepped in to stop the fight, it was clear that The Hulk wasn’t finished.
It was an odd stoppage that never really made sense, and so the UFC booked a rematch at UFC 249, on its initial April booking. That fell through along with the whole card when COVID-19 struck, so the UFC attempted to re-book it twice since.
However, two positive COVID-19 tests for Cutelaba put paid to both bookings, and so we’ve arrived here. Hopefully, it’ll be fifth time lucky for the two rising 205lbers.
So can The Hulk gain some manner of revenge for that odd stoppage back in February? I wouldn’t count on it. Prior to the first meeting, the feeling was that Ankalaev would look to use his powerful wrestling to neutralize the striking of Cutelaba.
When it came down to it, though, the Dagestani simply fought fire with fire, swung heavy shots back at Cutelaba, and came out on top. Sure, the stoppage was awful, but there was no doubt who was in control of the fight at the time.
Cutelaba has the punching power to turn around any fight, and if he can catch Ankalaev, then he can definitely knock him out. But given the Dagestani’s powerful grappling, it’s more likely that The Hulk just has too much to worry about here to really open up with his dangerous combinations.
And even if he can, judging by their first fight, it’s unlikely that the stoic Ankalaev will wilt under pressure. With that in mind then, I suspect we’ll see the result that I predicted back in February. That will probably involve Ankalaev mixing his striking in with his takedowns, grounding Cutelaba, and working him over for a unanimous decision win.
The Pick: Ankalaev via unanimous decision
#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
At the time of writing, UFC 254 has three prelims set for the ESPN+ streaming service this weekend. First is a fascinating Heavyweight encounter between Stefan Struve and Tai Tuivasa. Both men have recently fallen on hard times, with Struve only winning one of his last five UFC fights and Tuivasa on a three-fight losing streak overall.
Essentially, this one should come down to whether Tuivasa can land a clubbing blow on Struve before he gets taken down and submitted. The Aussie’s ground game is a massive Achilles heel, and unless he’s worked on his takedown defense, he’s probably going to find himself in trouble here.
Struve is definitely hittable and has a poor chin for Heavyweight, but the truth is that he’s still a wily, dangerous veteran. I think he’ll use his reach advantage to close the distance, wrap Tuivasa up, and tap him out in the first round.
At Welterweight, Alex Oliveira faces newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov. A native of Kazakhstan, Rakhmonov clearly appears to deserve this UFC opportunity. He’s 12-0, has never gone the distance, and looks like a tremendous athlete. Grappling appears to be his best area – he’s got five tap-outs on his record and looks like a strong wrestler – but he also packs power on the feet, too.
Oliveira, though, is a tricky match for anyone in this division. Cowboy is a huge, powerful 170lber who hits like a truck and is also highly dangerous on the ground. He’s also got plenty of UFC experience, packing in 18 fights in his five years with the promotion.
Cardio has historically been his biggest weakness, but with Rakhmonov making his debut, that may not be an issue here. I suspect we’ll see a fight between two mirror images here – but Oliveira’s UFC experience will be enough to win him a decision.
Finally, Korean prospect Da Un Jung faces veteran Sam Alvey at 205lbs. The book has essentially been written on Alvey now. If an opponent can avoid his deadly counter right hook, then they’re probably going to win. Given that he’s on a four-fight losing streak, this could be the fight that sees him wash out of the UFC.
Jung is a difficult match for him, too. A great athlete with excellent skills in all areas, Jung has won his last 12 fights, including two in the UFC. Given how hard the Korean hits, I think Alvey is in trouble here. As long as Jung avoids that right hook, I think he wins this one by TKO.
#8 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
Three prelims will also be shown on UFC Fight Pass this weekend. Firstly, we’ve got a Catchweight 140lbs bout between Nathaniel Wood and Casey Kenney. The UK’s Wood is an excellent technical fighter, possessing some beautiful kickboxing and an equally dangerous ground game. Sure, he was beaten by John Dodson, but there’s no shame in that really.
Kenney is really a fellow jack of all trades, and he’s looking to pick up his second UFC win in a month as he only beat Heili Alateng on October 4th. However, this is a tricky fight for him, in my opinion. Both men are similar, but Wood has superior finishing skills, and if he gets Kenney hurt, he’s likely to put him away. Sure, Kenney’s never been finished before, but there’s a first time for everything. I like Wood via late submission here.
At Flyweight, Liana Jojua faces Miranda Maverick. This will be Maverick’s UFC debut after putting together a solid 7-2 record that’s seen her defeat some real veterans. Jojua, meanwhile, was last seen submitting Diana Belbita in the UFC in June.
This should be a close one to call as both women are dangerous, particularly on the ground. However, Maverick appears to be the slightly stronger fighter, so I’ll take her to win this one by decision.
Finally, Joel Alvarez takes on Alexander Yakovlev in a Lightweight tilt. A longtime veteran, Yakovlev, has picked up some solid wins in the UFC but tends to struggle against better athletes. He’s also 36 years old and has been fighting since 2004, which is more than a little concerning.
Meanwhile, Alvarez has looked excellent in both of his UFC wins, submitting Joe Duffy and picking up a TKO of Danilo Belluardo. He’s got far less experience than Yakovlev despite having 19 fights, but I like him to win this one purely on the basis of him being in his athletic prime. Alvarez via TKO is my pick.
