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The first UFC pay-per-view of 2024 goes down this weekend in Toronto, and it looks like a pretty good one.
UFC 297: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis features two title fights, as well as a strong-looking card overall.
With that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 297: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis.
#1. UFC middleweight title: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis
Remarkably, this fight is set to be the first UFC middleweight title bout not to feature Israel Adesanya since the summer of 2017, when Robert Whittaker faced off with Yoel Romero.
The ghost of ‘The Last Stylebender’ hangs heavy over this fight too. Dricus du Plessis seemed destined to clash with him after sparking a bitter rivalry with the Nigerian-New Zealander star last year, but couldn’t make the date for the planned bout.
Instead, Sean Strickland stepped in and stunned everyone by outpointing Adesanya to claim the title in one of the octagon’s all-time great upsets.
Nobody would’ve expected these two to be dueling for the gold to open 2024, but here we are. So which man will win?
Of the two, Strickland has more experience in the octagon. He’s been part of the roster since 2014 and has slowly developed his skills, climbing the ladder along the way.
Since moving back to 185 pounds in 2020, ‘Tarzan’ has been excellent. He’s won eight out of 10 fights, with his only two losses coming to Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier. Most of these wins have followed a similar pattern, with Strickland keeping his foe at the end of his punches while mixing in the odd takedown for good measure.
In contrast to Strickland’s decision-heavy record, du Plessis is a certified killer. ‘Stillknocks’ is not only unbeaten in the UFC at 6-0, but he’s also dispatched five of his opponents, with only the tough Brad Tavares going the distance.
The South African has also shown to have skills in all areas. He took out Darren Till on the ground and was also able to survive on the mat with the dangerous Derek Brunson, while his other wins came due to his electric striking power.
Sure, du Plessis isn’t necessarily the most technical striker, but his awkward style and his vicious power have proven too hard a puzzle to solve. Even Whittaker, who had only ever lost to Adesanya at middleweight, couldn’t cope with his power.
Can Strickland, then? It’s debatable. ‘Tarzan’ is definitely a superior boxer to the South African, but he still has a tendency to hang his hands too low, something that will be horribly dangerous against du Plessis.
More to the point, while he did rock Adesanya in the early going, Strickland just isn’t the best finisher, and so unless du Plessis runs out of steam early on, he’ll always be in danger against such a knockout artist.
Add in the fact that ‘Stillknocks’ appears to be under Strickland’s skin thanks to some unsavory trash talk, and there’s every chance that he comes in too aggressively and leaves himself open.
With all of this considered, the pick is du Plessis via knockout.
The Pick: du Plessis via second-round KO
#2. UFC bantamweight title: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
With no disrespect meant to either woman, this bantamweight title bout between No.2-ranked Raquel Pennington and No.3-ranked Mayra Bueno Silva may well be one of the least anticipated in UFC history.
Why is the title on the line? For those who’ve forgotten, the legendary Amanda Nunes decided to retire last year, vacating her crown in the process.
Essentially, Nunes was the fighter keeping this division afloat. Once considered the “glamor” division for female fighters, the 135-pound weight class is now largely devoid of talent, and feels even more devoid of star power.
Of these two, Pennington has been around for a lot longer. Debuting in the octagon after a solid run on TUF back in 2013, ‘Rocky’ initially appeared to be little more than an entertaining brawler. However, she’s slowly improved in all facets of the game and now has few true weaknesses.
Pennington is currently riding a five-fight win streak, and while better athletes – particularly strikers – can sometimes get the better of her, her size, toughness and overall ability mean she can often grind wins out even when her back is to the wall.
Once a flyweight, Silva is a little trickier to weigh up. A submission expert, she’s pulled off six wins in the octagon since her 2018 debut. However, she’s also suffered some disappointing results – a loss to Manon Fiorot and a draw with Montana De La Rosa.
More to the point, her biggest win, a submission over Holly Holm, was later overturned when she tested positive for a banned substance. However, it might be fair to ignore that, as the substance was an ADHD drug.
The UFC clearly have, as that was actually her last fight before this title bout. So does the Brazilian stand a chance of beating Pennington?
It’s fair to say that she’s probably a superior natural athlete to ‘Rocky’. However, despite that, ‘Sheetara’ will be giving up plenty of size – there’s no way Pennington could ever make 125 pounds, for instance – and plenty of experience too.
It’s not likely that this fight will be a technical classic, but given her overall toughness, underrated technical ability and size and power, it feels like Pennington should come out on top. If she does, she’ll arguably become one of the most unlikely champions in UFC history, a truly monumental achievement by anyone’s standards.
The Pick: Pennington via decision
#3. UFC 297: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Neil Magny takes on Mike Malott. Still ranked at No.13 in the 170-pound division, Magny has now settled firmly into a role as a gatekeeper.
Any fighter who can beat him – most recently Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov, for instance – ends up considered elite-level, while the likes of Philip Rowe and Daniel Rodriguez both stumbled against ‘The Haitian Sensation’.
Where does Malott sit? It’s a little hard to say. ‘Proper’ has looked brilliant since his octagon debut last April and has dispatched three foes, two via tap-out and one via KO. In fact, the Canadian has never gone the distance in any of his wins.
Whether his straightforward attack can get him past Magny, though, is another thing. Not only is the TUF veteran his toughest test to date, but Malott is also giving up a lot of reach – seven inches to be exact - and Magny is a master of keeping a foe at distance to hurt them.
Magny is not the most durable fighter, which gives Malott a chance, but overall, the pick is ‘The Haitian Sensation’ via decision.
At middleweight, Chris Curtis faces Marc-Andre Barriault. While this looks like a standard mid-card brawl, Curtis is actually ranked at No.13 at 185 pounds, and so this is actually a solid fight overall.
Despite his rank, though, ‘Action Man’ has not won since his KO of Joaquin Buckley back in December 2022. He lost to Kelvin Gastelum last April and his last fight against Nassourdine Imavov went to a No Contest thanks to a clash of heads.
Overall, Curtis is a solid fighter who prefers to strike it out with his foes, and toughness and an ability to hit harder than his foe is largely his game. That should serve him well against Barriault.
‘Power Bar’ has won his last two bouts, but he’s little more than a brawler with strong hands, and he’s probably slower and slightly less hard-hitting than Curtis too. With that considered, despite Barriault’s home country advantage, the pick is Curtis via second-round KO.
Finally, in a key featherweight tilt, Arnold Allen battles Movsar Evloev. With Allen ranked at No.3 and Evloev ranked at No.9 at 145 pounds, the winner of this one could fight for the title next, depending on what happens in the upcoming title bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria.
Basically, this should come down to whether Allen can stop Evloev’s takedowns. On the feet, ‘Almighty’ should have a big advantage. One of the more technical strikers in the division, the UK native hits very hard and is quick, and the only fighter to get the better of him standing was Max Holloway.
Allen’s ground game is also excellent, but whether he can prevent Evloev from running a wrestling clinic on him is another thing. Evloev is still unbeaten at 17-0, although his last win over Diego Lopes saw him end up in trouble at points.
That fight should give Allen a lot of confidence. Even if he finds himself on his back, there’s no reason why he can’t threaten Evloev, and assuming he can at least do some damage standing and defend some of the takedowns, this is a winnable fight. Overall, the pick is Allen via decision.
#4. UFC 297: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight bout: Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
UFC featherweight bout: Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson
UFC bantamweight bout: Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras
UFC strawweight bout: Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
UFC welterweight bout: Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
UFC flyweight bout: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira
UFC flyweight bout: Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
