UFC Predictions - UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

The UFC returns to Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena next weekend with a loaded card. This event will mark the final pay-per-view of 2024.

UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura might've lost its original main event, but it still features plenty of massive fights across various divisions.

So with plenty to look forward to, this one should be worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura.

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#1. UFC flyweight title: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

UFC 310's main event will be a rare example of a fighter making their octagon debut in a title bout.

Kai Asakura has yet to set foot in the octagon, and yet he'll be walking into Las Vegas for the biggest fight of his life, a flyweight title bout with champion Alexandre Pantoja.

So can the Japanese star pull off what would be a miracle win, becoming not only the new flyweight kingpin but the first Japanese champion in UFC history?

It's fair to say that he won't have it easy. While he isn't as flashy as Deiveson Figueiredo or Brandon Moreno, the two flyweight champions who preceded him, 'The Cannibal' is a brilliant fighter.

The Brazilian possesses lethal submission skills, particularly if he can take the back of his opponent. On the feet, he's not the most natural striker per say, but his countering skills are excellent, he's willing to trade with his foes, and he packs a lot of power.

More to the point, Pantoja is incredibly durable. His last three fights have been wild, five-round brawls with Moreno, Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg. All three men gave him their absolute best, but 'The Cannibal' was able to give more back and ended up winning.

Based on his experience, it's definitely fair to call the champion the favorite. So can Asakura pull off the upset?

A former two-time bantamweight champion in RIZIN, Asakura holds an impressive record of 21-4. He's beaten high-level fighters like Kyoji Horiguchi, Juan Archuleta, and Manel Kape, the latter of whom is currently a title contender in this division his own right.

It's not just his impressive record that has netted him this opportunity, though. Asakura is a huge star in Japan, with millions of fans following his YouTube account. If he can win this fight, he could help the promotion make a major inroad into a country they've never truly cracked.

Primarily a striker, Asakura is quick, heavy-handed and remarkably lethal when he gets an opponent hurt. His combinations come in rapid-fire style, and the power he possesses is capable of taking out any fighter.

It is worth noting, though, that the Japanese star does keep his chin somewhat high, and he does have the tendency to swing from slightly wide angles. That could leave him open to a big counter from a fighter like Pantoja.

Overall, then, it's probably fair to suggest that Pantoja has the edge in a lot of areas here. He's more proven in the octagon, particularly on the ground, and while he isn't as quick as Asakura, he still possesses power in his hands, particularly on the counter.

With that said, any fighter who packs the power of Asakura is a live underdog, and more to the point, the speed that the Japanese star possesses is on an entirely different level to that possessed by Erceg and Royval.

Therefore, it might well be the case that this bout is ripe for an upset, particularly if Asakura can perhaps look to counter on 'The Cannibal' rather than rush him.

Assuming Asakura doesn't let the huge occasion get to him, then, this feels like the kind of fight he can win, particularly with Pantoja getting no younger. It seems crazy, but the upset feels likely here.

The Pick: Asakura via first round KO

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#2. UFC welterweight bout: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry

Initially, UFC 310 was supposed to see Shavkat Rakhmonov receive his long-awaited shot at welterweight champion Belal Muhammad. To see the promotion go with the unbeaten prospect, rather than a bigger name like Kamaru Usman was a breath of fresh air.

However, 'Remember the Name' was forced out a few weeks ago, citing a nasty-looking bone infection.

Rather than sideline Rakhmonov too, 'The Nomad' now finds himself in a de facto top contender's clash - not an interim title fight - with a fellow unbeaten prospect in Ian Machado Garry.

If anything, this fight feels trickier for Rakhmonov than his clash with Muhammad did. Sure, Muhammad is the champion right now, but styles make fights, and on the evidence we've seen, 'The Nomad' matched well with him.

However, Garry is a different proposition entirely, and while he isn't as well-liked by the fans as 'The Nomad', he's no less dangerous.

Rakhmonov's style is an all-action one. He's never gone the distance in any of his 18 career wins, finishing eight of his foes via knockout and ten via submission.

It is worth noting that the native of Kazakhstan isn't necessarily a jiu-jitsu ace, though. Most of his submissions - including his wins over Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal and Neil Magny - have come opportunistically, usually over opponents he's already hurt.

It's those fights with Neal and Thompson that are probably worth looking at closest when it comes to judging how Rakhmonov will fare here.

Against Neal, 'The Nomad' was largely unable to drag his opponent down, and found himself engaged in a firefight instead. While he fared remarkably well, and probably landed the better strikes, he did take a lot of damage in return, showing off a solid chin.

With Thompson, meanwhile, he found things slightly tricky on the feet before landing a second round takedown after a bull-rush, and from there, 'Wonderboy' was finished.

The issue for Rakhmonov here, then, might be the fact that Garry will be as willing to stay on the outside as Thompson was, but should be better than both men at fending off any takedowns.

'The Future' is not a great wrestler per say, but he's definitely adept at staying out of takedown range and striking from there with success, and when he has been taken down, he's easily sprung back up.

The Irishman has come under fire at times for a perceived point-fighting style - he's gone the distance in five of his eight octagon wins - but he's very effective at what he does and doesn't seem willing to be drawn into brawls.

Garry might have some trouble here as he wasn't preparing for Rakhmonov, and was instead looking at a fight with Joaquin Buckley. In turn, though, 'The Nomad' was preparing for the wrestling of Muhammad, not a point-fighting striker.

It'd be better for the UFC overall if Rakhmonov were to win, purely because he's a far better fighter to watch. However, styles make fights, and 'The Future' looks like a bad match for the Kazakh.

The Pick: Garry via decision

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#3. UFC 310: The Main Card

In a big heavyweight clash, former title challenger Ciryl Gane rematches Alexander Volkov. It's probably fair to say that their first bout, which took place in June 2021, was underwhelming. So will this one be any better?

In all honesty, it might be. Volkov has largely changed his style since then and is far more aggressive than he was, looking to come forward and punish his foes much more than he once did.

However, that could well play into Gane's hands. 'Bon Gamin' is a counter-striker by trade, he didn't struggle with the reach of Volkov in their first fight, and he's proven he can survive in firefights with the likes of Tai Tuivasa.

'Drago' should be considered a live underdog here and it does feel slightly unlikely that we'll see a finish, but the pick is Gane via decision.

In a curious main card choice, Bryce Mitchell takes on Kron Gracie in a featherweight clash. Interestingly, neither of these men have fought since 2023.

Although he hasn't looked as bad in the octagon as other members of his vaunted family, Gracie certainly hasn't shone thus far. He did look good in his octagon debut, as he easily whitewashed Alex Caceres, but he struggled badly against both Cub Swanson and Charles Jourdain on the feet.

While Gracie is older and somewhat one-dimensional, though, Mitchell isn't exactly a striker by trade in his own right. He's found things hard on the feet and tends to grapple with his opponents, which makes this one slightly harder to pick than it first seems.

Overall, 'Thug Nasty' should probably be favored, but only because he's younger, has more potential and has fought more consistently in recent years. Therefore, the pick is Mitchell via decision.

Finally, another featherweight bout sees Doo Ho Choi take on Nate Landwehr. This one should see some fireworks, as both men like nothing better than to launch bombs at their opponent's head, and neither man backs down either.

Of the two, though, it feels like Choi might be slightly quicker and more explosive, and he did look fantastic in his return bout this summer, violently dispatching Bill Algeo.

Landwehr is definitely capable of winning this one, but he'll need to be at his best and catch Choi with some pressure early on. Overall, though, it feels like 'The Korean Superboy' might just have too much speed and skill for 'The Train'. The pick is Choi via second round KO.

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#4. UFC 310: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith

UFC welterweight bout: Themba Gorimbo vs. Vicente Luque

UFC featherweight bout: Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev

UFC welterweight bout: Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle

UFC catchweight bout: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

UFC flyweight bout: Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van

UFC welterweight bout: Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin

UFC lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper

UFC heavyweight bout: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Lukasz Brzeski