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This weekend sees the first UFC event of 2023, as the promotion heads to the Las Vegas APEX for another Fight Night.
It’s safe to say that there will be more stacked cards than UFC Fight Night: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Kelvin Gastelum this year, but this should still be fun regardless.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Kelvin Gastelum.
#1. UFC middleweight bout: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Initially booked for UFC 273 way back in the spring of 2022, this fight should be a fun one to watch, even if it’s hard to justify Kelvin Gastelum’s status as a headliner right now.
The TUF 17 winner is a talented fighter, and at the age of 31, it’s arguable that he’s only just hitting his athletic prime. However, he’s won one of his last six bouts and hasn’t claimed victory since February 2021.
It is worth noting, however, that Gastelum’s most recent win came over Ian Heinisch, the only one of his recent opponents to be ranked below him. With Nassourdine Imavov sitting just one spot above him at No.12 in the middleweight division, is this his chance to right the ship?
It’s honestly hard to say. France’s Imavov has been on a hell of a run as of late, picking up three wins in a row and most recently outpointing Joaquin Buckley handily.
Overall, it’s hard to pinpoint a weakness in Imavov’s game. He’s shown himself to be a violent and technically proficient striker. Against Buckley and Edmen Shahbazyan, he used his wrestling skills to dominate proceedings on the ground.
His one loss, though, came to Phil Hawes. It’s likely to be that gameplan that Gastelum looks to replicate this weekend.
Essentially, Hawes was able to grind Imavov out in the clinch for two rounds. While he found himself in trouble in the third, he was able to do enough to survive for a decision.
Can Gastelum do the same? At his best, he probably could’ve done. An underrated grappler, Gastelum is more than capable of outwrestling an opponent, and he’s got the stamina to be able to outwork his foes in the clinch too.
It’s also fair to call him somewhat of an underrated striker. He’s scored knockout wins over the likes of Michael Bisping and Tim Kennedy, he hits hard, and he’s got a decent chin, having never been stopped by strikes.
However, the issue here is that he just hasn’t been on great form in so long that it’s hard to imagine him rebounding against an opponent as dangerous as Imavov. This is amplified by the fact that it’s been well over a year since we saw him in action.
When you consider how much of a roll the Frenchman has also been on, and the fact that he’s a strong finisher, this is a worrying fight for the TUF 17 winner. Can Imavov finish Gastelum? That might be doubtful, but to see him beat him down for a decision feels likely.
The Pick: Imavov via decision
#2. UFC featherweight bout: Dan Ige vs. Damon Jackson
To say this is a bizarrely booked fight would be an understatement. Usually, the UFC prefers to book fighters who won their last fight against fellow winners, and losers – if they’re kept around – against losers.
That isn’t the case here. Damon Jackson, on his second run in the promotion, is currently on a four-fight win streak and has won five of his last six. Dan Ige, on the other hand, has lost his last three and is 1-4 in his last five.
Despite this, it’s fair to say that ‘50k’ is the more tested fighter at the top level. He’s won seven bouts in the octagon, including wins over Edson Barboza and Mirsad Bektic.
He’s also headlined multiple shows and has been involved in fights with high-end contenders like Josh Emmett and 'The Korean Zombie'.
Jackson, on the other hand, has no wins over any ranked foes. While he’s impressed recently, his best opponent was probably prospect Pat Sabatini. Still, any fighter who only has four losses to their name can’t really be overlooked.
‘Action’ is more of a grappler than a striker, even if he did score a knockout over Sabatini. 15 of his 22 wins have come via tap-out, including two submissions in the octagon. He isn’t the strongest wrestler, but if he can get into a good position on the ground, he’s definitely dangerous.
In contrast, Ige is almost completely known for his striking. More of a brawler than anything, he hasn’t scored many knockouts in his career, but he does have a tendency to push forward at a ridiculous pace, wearing out his foes down the stretch.
Given that he’s also never been finished, it’s safe to say that this fight ought to favor him. On paper at least, it’s hard to imagine Jackson taking him down, and it’s also hard to imagine him surviving Ige’s pace.
When you add in the fact that ‘Action’ has been stopped by strikes in three of his four losses, he probably ought to be worried. If Ige can recapture the form that got him to a headline position in the past, he should win this one.
The Pick: Ige via second-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a middleweight bout, Punahele Soriano takes on Roman Kopylov. This one is likely to be a striking bout. If both men deliver in the way they’re capable of, it could be fun. Both men are coming off impressive knockout wins, and given they’ve had issues on the ground, neither should look to take the fight there.
Therefore, it’s likely that this one should come down to which fighter can connect first. With that considered, Soriano is the slightly quicker and more explosive fighter. The pick is ‘Puna’ via KO.
In a bantamweight clash, Ketlen Vieira faces Raquel Pennington. This one should be fascinating. Vieira is the younger fighter and appeared to be en route to a title shot before losing to Yana Kunitskaya in 2021, but her win over Holly Holm pushed her right back into contention last year.
Pennington, meanwhile, might be looked at as past her best, but she’s actually riding a solid four-fight win streak. The issue for ‘Rocky’ here is that she’s never been the best athlete and has had issues with fighters who can force her out of her comfort zone, which tends to be a clinch-based brawl.
Given that ‘Fenomeno’ is a quickly developing striker and a stifling grappler with a heavy top game, and is also closer to her prime, the pick is Vieira via decision.
Finally, Umar Nurmagomedov squares off with Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight bout. This one should be a big test for Nurmagomedov, who is still unbeaten in both the UFC and MMA in general. A brutally efficient grappler, Umar is similar in style to his cousin, the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov, and so it’s easy to understand how he looks to fight.
Barcelos is equally dangerous, albeit without a strong wrestling background. A heavy hitter who is also capable of submitting his opponents, he’s definitely able to win this fight, but given his two most recent losses, it’s also easy to see him being outworked. With that considered, the pick is Nurmagomedov via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight bout: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
UFC lightweight bout: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Nick Fiore
UFC bantamweight bout: Javid Basharat vs. Mateus Mendonca
UFC flyweight bout: Allan Nascimento vs. Carlos Hernandez
UFC featherweight bout: Daniel Argueta vs. Isaac Dulgarian
UFC flyweight bout: Jimmy Flick vs. Charles Johnson
UFC flyweight bout: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Sijara Eubanks
UFC featherweight bout: Jarno Errens vs. David Onama
