UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX for its latest Fight Night this weekend, and unfortunately, this event lacks name value.

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot does have some strong-sounding fights on paper, but none of them feature major stars, meaning the spotlight will be lacking.

Still, exciting fights can happen anywhere, and so this one may well still be worth tuning into.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot.

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#1. UFC lightweight bout: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Can Mateusz Gamrot edge out Rafael Fiziev this weekend? [Image Credit: @mateusz_gamrot on Instagram]

While neither of these men have too big of a name, they’re both ranked within the top ten at lightweight, one of the UFC’s most loaded divisions. That alone makes them quite a big deal.

A major win for either man – particularly if it comes via finish – would probably propel them right into title contention. So who is going to take it?

The last time we saw Rafael Fiziev in action, he took a bit of a beating from Justin Gaethje, but it wasn’t the worst showing ever. He didn’t get finished, managed to hang in there with arguably the division’s heaviest hitter for three rounds, and didn’t look out of his depth.

Prior to that, he’d knocked out Rafael Dos Anjos, Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano in impressive fashion, and also picked apart Bobby Green.

‘Ataman’ is a striker by trade, and he loves to throw big combinations as well as wild spinning attacks. Gaethje exposed him defensively somewhat, but then few fighters have the power that the former interim lightweight champ does, meaning a repeat of that feels unlikely.

Mateusz Gamrot doesn’t quite have the big name wins that Fiziev does, but he is just one of two men – the other being Islam Makhachev – to beat the dangerous Arman Tsarukyan in the octagon.

‘Gamer’ is a brilliantly rounded fighter who can both outstrike and outgrapple his foes, and while Beneil Dariush outworked him in their clash last October, it’s easy to argue that the Polish fighter has no true weaknesses.

In all honesty, then, this one could well go either way. However, the smarter pick, for a couple of reasons, appears to be Gamrot.

Firstly, ‘Gamer’ has never been knocked out, and while he hasn’t fought a striker as skilled as Fiziev before, he did very well to handle the dangerous Jalin Turner in his last bout. More importantly, he’s an excellent kickboxer in his own right who probably won’t fear Fiziev’s wilder style.

Outside of Dos Anjos – who is ageing – and Moicano, on the other hand, Fiziev has never fought an opponent in the octagon capable of dragging him to the ground like Gamrot is. We just don’t know all that much about the ground game of ‘Ataman’.

Fiziev could well catch Gamrot with something wild in the early going and turn his lights out, but overall, it doesn’t seem likely. He’ll probably take some damage along the way, but the pick here is ‘Gamer’.

The Pick: Gamrot via decision

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#2. UFC featherweight bout: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige

Can Dan Ige turn out the lights on Bryce Mitchell? [Image Credit: @dynamitedan808 on Instagram]

While neither of these men are currently in contention for the UFC featherweight title, they’re both ranked in the top fifteen, meaning that theoretically, this should be an excellent fight.

More to the point, it’s quite a fascinating style clash pitting a grappler against a striker, and while both men are more rounded than that, it’s clear that one will want the fight up, and the other down.

Dan Ige will almost certainly want to keep this fight vertical. ‘50K’ loves nothing better than to exchange big shots with his opponents, and for the most part, he has the ability to outgun them.

The Hawaiian is now back on a two-fight win streak, including an impressive victory over Nate Landwehr, after losing three in a row prior to that.

Ige has two problems that have tended to keep him from really ascending the ladder. Firstly, while he’s a willing striker and brawler, he doesn’t tend to throw with too much power, meaning he can be outgunned by a bigger puncher.

Secondly, we’ve also seen him grounded, and on the mat – particularly in his loss to Movsar Evloev – he looked out of his depth somewhat.

That might well be music to the ears of Bryce Mitchell. While he’s nicknamed ‘Thug Nasty’ and could easily be written off as a clueless brawler based on his interviews, he’s actually a fantastic grappler with excellent takedowns and submissions.

Mitchell suffered his first defeat last year to heavy hitter Ilia Topuria, but prior to that, he’d outworked the likes of Edson Barboza and Andre Fili on the ground, and even scored a rare twister submission in 2019.

The Arkansas native is not the best striker, as he looks somewhat stiff in his form, but usually that hasn’t mattered. He’s more than capable of closing the distance and if he gets hold of a foe, they’re usually going to the ground.

Can he do this to Ige, then? The likely answer is yes. ‘50K’ does have solid takedown defense, but Mitchell is the kind of fighter who won’t give up on a takedown attempt too easily, and Ige may not have the power to really put him off, either.

The Hawaiian is a slippery character and so Mitchell finding a submission might be difficult for him, but the pick is ‘Thug Nasty’ via decision.

The Pick: Mitchell via decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Can Michelle Waterson get back on track this weekend? [Image Credit: @karatehottiemma on Instagram]

In a strawweight fight, Marina Rodriguez takes on Michelle Waterson. This is actually a rematch of a headliner in 2021 that saw Rodriguez outpoint ‘The Karate Hottie’, setting her on a slide that she has yet to arrest.

Waterson is still a very dangerous striker and an underrated grappler, but at the age of 37 she’s definitely slowing down somewhat, and her power at 115lbs just doesn’t seem as explosive as it would do at a lower weight.

Rodriguez actually hasn’t won a fight since March 2022 in her own right, losing to Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba since, but neither fight saw her look that bad. She’s still got holes in her game defensively, but hits hard and has good enough takedown defense to get away with it.

Essentially, not enough has changed since their first fight to expect Waterson to win, so the pick is Rodriguez via decision.

In a welterweight bout, Bryan Battle faces AJ Fletcher. Battle has done well for himself since winning TUF 29 in 2021. He’s won four of his five visits to the octagon, and finished Gabriel Green in vicious fashion in his last fight. ‘Pooh Bear’ is a well-rounded, dangerous fighter with few weaknesses.

Fletcher is more of a question mark. He won his last fight via submission, but prior to that, didn’t really show much in his first two octagon bouts. Based on that, he could maybe catch Battle with something unexpected, but the pick is ‘Pooh Bear’ via decision.

Finally, at featherweight, Ricardo Ramos faces Charles Jourdain. Both of these men are reckless to a fault, so this one could well produce fireworks.

Of the two, Jourdain is perhaps the more proven. ‘Air’ holds wins over fighters like Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie, and has skills in all areas, although he’s so wild that he’s also defensively porous.

Ramos, meanwhile, hasn’t fought in over a year after scoring a stunning knockout of Danny Chavez via spinning back elbow. Like Jourdain, he’s largely a finisher, and has an underrated octagon record of 7-3.

This one should probably come down to which man is more durable, as it’s likely that both will take damage at some point, and with that in mind, the pick is Jourdain via late TKO.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC bantamweight bout: Miles Johns vs. Dan Argueta

UFC welterweight bout: Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho

UFC middleweight bout: Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage

UFC heavyweight bout: Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier

UFC strawweight bout: Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy

UFC bantamweight bout: Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal