NASCAR Truck Series playoff picture tightens with final race set to decide bubble driver fates

With one race remaining in the 2025 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series regular season, the fight for the final transfer spots is as tight as it gets. Seven different drivers have already secured wins to lock into the 10-driver postseason grid. That leaves just three spots open on points heading into Friday's (August 15) regular-season finale at Richmond Raceway.

The Mission 176 at Watkins Glen only heightened the drama. Corey Heim claimed his fourth straight road-course win in a triple-overtime finish, while championship hopefuls saw their fortunes swing sharply. Christopher Bell nearly scored an emotional victory, filling in for Stewart Friesen, but late cautions forced him to pit for fuel, dropping him to fourth.

2025 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series playoffs standings after Watkins Glen. Source: NASCAR.com

The points picture also shifted, with Jake Garcia now sitting on the cutline at +11 over two-time champion Ben Rhodes, while Giovanni Ruggiero (-21) and Tanner Gray (-69) remain in must-win territory. The Friesen situation looms large - if he's granted a medical waiver, the bubble could shift again, tightening the fight further.

When the green flag waves at Richmond, every stage point, pit call, and restart will matter. For Garcia, Rhodes, Ruggiero, and Gray, the difference between advancing and going home could be decided by the smallest of margins or whether Stewart Friesen's playoff spot stays open.

Here's how the key NASCAR Truck Series drivers around the cutline head into Richmond:

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5 NASCAR Truck Series drivers on the bubble

#5 Kaden Honeycutt - Halmar Friesen Racing No. 52 (+ 65)

Kaden Honeycutt before the NASCAR Fresh From Florida 250. Source: Imagn

Kaden Honeycutt entered Watkins Glen sixth in the standings after running full-time with Niece Motorsports, but his situation changed abruptly. On Aug. 4, Niece announced it was parting ways with him immediately due to his 2026 deal with a different team and manufacturer. Honeycutt drove the No. 02 Young's Motorsports Chevrolet at Watkins Glen, but mechanical issues ended his race early in 34th.

The very next day, Halmar Friesen Racing confirmed he would sub for Stewart Friesen starting at Richmond. If Friesen returns in the playoffs, Honeycutt could be out of a ride and potentially out of the playoffs despite sitting comfortably at +65.

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#4 Jake Garcia - ThorSport Racing No. 13 (+ 11)

Jake Garcia during the NASCAR Truck Series race at Daytona International Speedway. Source: Imagn

Jake Garcia's 15th-place run at Watkins Glen earned him 22 points, just enough to hold the final transfer spot at +11. Now in his third full-time season, the 20-year-old has shown qualifying speed with an 8.5 average start, but his average finish of 12.8 tells the story of disappointing race days.

In his last eight starts, he has just one top-10. While he has a top-five finish at Richmond, if Friesen returns via waiver, Garcia could find himself back below the cutline without a win.

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#3 Ben Rhodes - ThorSport Racing No. 99 (- 11)

Ben Rhodes during the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Mission 176. Source: Getty

The 2021 and 2023 Truck Series champion has made the playoffs in six straight seasons, but that streak is in serious jeopardy. Ben Rhodes showed speed at Watkins Glen, finishing fifth in Stage 1 and winning the second.

But a multi-truck wreck on the penultimate lap led to overtime and dropped him to 26th. He's 11 points out and hasn't won at Richmond in five career starts, making this a high-pressure weekend for one of the series' most experienced contenders.

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#2 Giovanni Ruggiero - TRICON Garage No. 17 (- 21)

NASCAR Truck Series driver Giovanni Ruggiero during the Fresh From Florida 250. Source: Imagn

Giovanni Ruggiero started strong at Watkins Glen, running sixth in Stage 1 before slipping back mid-race. Late-race chaos worked in his favor, and the rookie rallied to a third-place finish - his fourth top-five of the season.

That effort kept his playoff hopes alive, but at -21, the math is simple: he needs a win to advance. He has never raced at Richmond, adding another challenge to an already uphill battle.

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#1 Tanner Gray - TRICON Garage No. 15 (- 69)

NASCAR Truck Series driver Tanner Gray (15) during the Fresh from Florida 250. Source: Imagn

Tanner Gray's situation is the most dire among bubble drivers. Sitting -69 from the cutline, he's in a must-win scenario. At Watkins Glen, he ran mid-pack early, surged to sixth in Stage 2, then fell out with 17 laps to go, finishing 28th after a DNF.

With just one top-10 in his last nine races, Gray faces long odds and will need his best performance of the year to pull off the upset at Richmond.