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Written by: Jeff Cadillac
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 9 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, NY Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers & SF 49ers
Sunday November 6th, 2022 1:00pm
Miami Dolphins (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-5), (2-5-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS CHI+5
LW, MIA needed to come back big @DET. They were a FAV-3 @DET and I liked them. But who knew they would need every point to win and cover? MIA won 31-27 and DET who can score but can’t defend, loses another one after leading big. MIA certainly has weapons on OFF & with WRs Waddle & Hill catching over 200yds in this game. LW, I liked CHI +10 ½ @DAL.
I figured CHI would at least keep it close. They didn’t and lost 49-29. CHI was in catchup mode all game as DAL stormed out to a14-0 1st qtr lead. It was 28-7 in the 2nd qtr and the closest CHI got was DAL 28-23. After that, CHI DEF couldn’t stop DAL and it was DAL 42-23 going into the 4th qtr. CHI gave up 200yds rushing to DAL with 4tds and DAL QB DAK Prescott was 21/27 250 yds, 2TDS & 1INT.
Prescott was able to spread the ball around to seven different receivers. It also hurt CHI that RB David Montgomery had a fumble that was returned for a td. This was a big swing when the score was DAL 35-23 and CHI was driving. That made the score DAL 42-23. You can’t make mistakes when you play with the big boys.
L4 CHI vs MIA, MIA 3-1 SUATS. CHI 14-15 ATS L29 as HOME DOG. CHI 6-10-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CHI 1-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGS vs non-div opp. CHI 43-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 31-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 19-8 ATS before DET. CHI 1-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs 750>opp. MIA 6-6 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 8-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MIA 40-31 ATS AWAY in NV. MIA 32-28 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI is coming of a BIG loss @DAL.
I thought with the BIG Spread (+10 ½ ), they would end up closer. But they did not. This is a chance for them to show how they bounce back. MIA is coming off a catchup game on the road. Will they have to do it again? MIA has some great offensive weapons and Tua looks good. MIA #7 TOT OFF. Both of these teams made some trades during the week to upgrade their team. But CHI lost guys on DEF. Since last season, MIA has gone all in with upgrades.
MIA also added RB Jeff Wilson that reunites with Mostert. A 1-2 punch at RB. CHI has gotten rid of some guys on DEF and added an OFF weapon for their QB. CHI #16 TOT DEF. Will the DEF keep up with new guys stepping up for the departed ones? With all the changes these two teams have made, I like MIA to win by a td. MIA will exploit the wholes that were created when CHI traded their guys. MIA needs to be aware that CHI will run first and heavy before passing the ball.
The addition of WR Chase Claypool for CHI will pay dividends soon but not in this game. CHI is showing that they will give Fields the support he needs. He already has RBs, now he needs WRs. MIA has newly acquired LB Bradley Chubb in there to make some noise. We’ll see if he responds. MIA should spread their OFF around to keep the CHI DEF guessing. CHI is in a bounceback but MIA has too many weapons that will show off this week. CHI will come up short.
THE PICK: MIA-5
Sunday November 6th, 2022 1:00pm
Buffalo Bills (6-1), (4-2-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ NY Jets (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS NYJ+13
LW, NYJ were HOME vs NE. NE HC Bill Belichick takes pride in beating the NYJ. NYJ HC Robert Saleh has experienced this 3x. NYJ were actually up 10-6 at halftime but NYJ QB Zach Wilson didn’t get the memo. He threw 3INTS. Fortunately they resulted only in 6pts for NE. NE went out to a 22-10 lead and it was catchup mode for NYJ. NYJ got a dummy td at the end to close a gap but not the game. NYJ lost 22-17. NYJ also had a missed fg. It was a sloppy game for NYJ all around. Now they face BUFF. LW, BUFF was @HOME vs GB.
The spread was BUFF-10 ½ and this game had the makings of a blowout. It was BUFF 24-7 at the half and BUFF looked in total control. Well, they took the foot off the gas and gave GB some hope. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw 2INTS in the 2nd half and BUFF ended up winning 27-17. The BUFF DEF gave up over 200yds rushing as GB made a game of it in the 2nd half. The spread was blown by ½ pt.
L15 NYJ(H) vs BUFF, NYJ 7-8 SU & 6-9 ATS. L25 NYJ vs BUFF, BUFF 13-12 SUATS. L21 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 13-8 ATS. L25 NYJ vs BUFF, FAV 13-11 ATS 1 PICK’EM. NYJ 21-23-1 ATS L45 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 9-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYJ 36-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 25-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 31-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 27-27-1 ATS L55 as a DOG 7>pts. BUFF 12-13 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 24-28-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 31-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 26-33-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 18-12 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts.
LW, BUFF showed that they could be run on if you take the time to do it. GB rushed for over 200 yds and almost came close because BUFF eased up on both sides of the ball. NYJ certainly have the runners to get the job done with RBs Michael Carter & James Robinson. But, they don’t have Aaron Rodgers @QB. BUFF # 4 RUSH DEF.
NYJ will hit a wall this week and it will not have anything to do with their own mistakes. BUFF is coming off a game where Allen said that he made mistakes from his usual game. He said he was going to correct them. That shows a winner who is looking to improve even after a win. How many QBs would say that after a win? Not many. I give a lot of credit to NYJ HC Robert Saleh. He has a tough job on a team that tends to lose a lot and not know what to do about it. After losing LW, now he faces a BUFF team that is looking to improve after a win.
Can it get any worse? Do you think the NYJ know they are a BIG DOG @HOME? NYJ have bounced back nicely after their first two losses this season, but this game is a tough task vs a BUFF team that is on a mission. Last season in wk 10, BUFF was -12 @NYJ. BUFF won the game 45-17. Zach Wilson didn’t play in that game. This was after BUFF had just lost @JAGS 9-6. Last week felt like a loss for BUFF and they are making adjustments. I see the BUFF DEF pressuring Wilson all game and him making mistakes. NYJ 9-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. I see another blowout here. Lay the points.
THE PICK: BUFF-13
Sunday November 6th, 2022 4:00pm
LA Rams (3-4), (2-5) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (3-5), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS LAR+3
LW, SF @LAR and it was the RB Christian McCaffrey show. He threw for a td, ran for a td and caught a td. The only thing this guy didn’t do vs the LAR is sell peanuts.
LAR DEF couldn’t contain him and LAR lost 31-14 after leading 14-10. The no-run RAMS rushed for a total of 56yds as LAR QB Matthew Stafford was sacked 2x but did not commit any turnovers.
The SF DEF held LAR to 4punts in the 2nd half. LAR WR Cooper Cupp did hurt his ankle in this one but should be ready for TB. LAR continues with their OFF woes as they managed 0pts in the 2nd half while giving 21pts. LW on TNF, the end score may have been close, 27-22 but the game really wasn’t that close.
BALT had a missed fg to end the 2nd qtr & TB was ahead 10-3 at the half but was barely holding on. On four straight possessions in the 2nd half, BALT scored 3tds and a fg to make the score 27-16 late in the 4th qtr. TB added a td but that’s all she wrote and the score ended 27-22. BALT rushed for a combined 231 yds on 33 touches while TB rushed for a combined 44yds.
The TB DEF better get cracking because TB HC Todd Bowles is usually good with the DEF but it seems they can be beaten with ease this season by anybody. BALT dialed up 453yds of TOT OFF on TB.
L11 LAR vs TB, LAR 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS. LAR 17-40-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 26-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 26-22-1 ATS L49 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 5-0 ATS as a DOG off DIV ATS loss. LAR 9-6 ATS after an SU loss. LAR 8-3 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. TB 10-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TB 33-28-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 27-25 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 1-14 ATS as a FAV off BB SU losses.
Both of these teams are messes for almost some of the same reasons. Both have no run game. TB #32 RUSH OFF. LAR #31 RUSH OFF. Both teams have a very weak O-LINE. Stafford has been sacked 24x. Brady as been sacked 13x. Brady’s total may not sound high but he is being rushed more than usual and getting less time in the pocket. As I said before and on the Dr. Roto show, this past Friday night, Stafford is not playing with same intensity and urgency as he was playing with last season. Just watch him during the game.
The DEF for LAR is getting picked apart and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. TB will win this game for revenge factors going back to the loss they suffered vs LAR in the playoffs last season. But moving forward, TB is going to get worse. Their schedule is not that easy and Brady will retire after the season. LAR HC Sean McVay is not a good coach and LAR will lose this one. Both teams have a DEF that can take over a game but look for LAR to commit some turnovers. Even though both teams are on a bounceback here, LAR doesn’t travel well and TB should win by seven pts.
THE PICK: TB-3
Sunday November 6th, 2022 8:20pm
Tennessee Titans (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ KC Chiefs (5-2), (3-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (0-3) ATS TENN+12 ½
LW, it was the TENN RB Derrick Henry show. He rushed for 219yds & 2tds as TENN beat HOU @HOU, 17-10. TENN QB Malik Willis threw only 10x and TENN went with a rush heavy OFF that rushed for 45x and a combined rushing total of 314yds. Granted this was against HOU who can’t stop anyone. Willis had an INT in his ten throws and only completed 6passes for 55yds. His 1INT did turn into 3pts by HOU. HOU got a dummy td late in the game after trailing 17-3.
But, this was HOU and they are terrible and going nowhere. Now a real test for TENN. Before their bye, KC spotted SF a 10-0 lead before taking control of the game and beating them 44-23. KC QB Pat Mahomes took over in that game and SF was playing catchup all afternoon. Everyone was involved as Mahomes threw for 423yds,3TDS & 1INT. He spread the ball around to 8receivers. The KC rushing game went for a combined 112yds and 3tds. The KC DEF also made plays with 5sacks, 2INTS & 1 recovered fumble.
L8 TENN vs KC, TENN 5-3 SUATS. KC 8-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 9-7 ATS @HOME on SNF. KC 16-10 ATS as a FAV ion SNF. KC 32-48 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 27-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 11-9-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. TENN 6-5 ATS AWAY on SNF. TENN 8-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. TENN 36-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 31-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 10-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins (last vs div) vs non-div.
Derrick Henry is a one-man wrecking crew and TENN is just getting started. TENN may not win pretty but they are winning and that’s all that matters. This game is a test for TENN because in their 5game win streak, they haven’t really beaten anyone. They beat LV, @INDY, @WASH, bye, vs INDY & @HOU. Not exactly a who’s who of playoff teams. TENN started out the season getting beaten in a comeback win by NYG & slaughtered @BUFF, 41-7. Since then, TENN has only given up 20 points once. TENN #15 TOT DEF is legit but this week will be their big test. TENN needs to show that they are for real. KC is coming off a bye. KC 7-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye.
KC has been so-so after a rest and they may be a little sluggish in this one. The DEF for TENN has to play like the BUFF DEF did a few weeks ago vs KC. They cannot let Mahomes have his way. He will get his throws but TENN cannot let him get to comfortable and have time to pick their DEF apart. TENN needs to make Mahomes uncomfortable on almost every play. This game will be closer than the spread suggests if TENN is to make a statement. TENN can’t beat KC if they only throw the ball 10x. Tannehill has a sprained ankle and is questionable for this game. Welcome to the NFL, Malik Willis. There may be a little revenge in this for KC as TENN beat KC last season in wk 7 @TENN 27-3. I like TENN with the points but I don’t know if they can win. I only like TENN if Tannehill is starting. If Willis is in there, I like KC laying the points. KC HC Andy Reid will throw the kitchen sink at the young QB and he will get eaten up. Tannehill is better having been here before. KC #30 PASS DEF. Tannehill will know what to do and this is a playoff game.
THE PICK: TENN+12 ½
Monday November 7th, 2022 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (5-3), (3-4-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ NO Saints (3-5), 92-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NO+3
LW, on TNF BALT made plays @TB to take control of the game in the 2nd half. TB was leading 10-3 but the BALT DEF made TB punt in their first 2possesions of the 2nd half. BALT in turn scored TDs in their first two possessions and were leading 17-10. From there both teams exchanged scores and BALT won 27-22. TB had scored a td in their last possession to make the score close but, BALT had this game in control by scoring on all their possessions in the 2nd half. The BALT DEF held the TB running game to 44yds.
BALT rushed for a combined 231yds on 33 carries and 1td. BALT did not turn the ball over which was crucial. You do not want to give TB QB Tom Brady any extra possessions in which to score. LW, NO @HOME vs LV, it was all NO. LV couldn’t find the endzone at all and NO won 24-0. NO RB Alvin Kamara scored 3td and rushed for 126yds. NO had 0turnovers. NO QB Andy Dalton had a nice game with 0turnovers and spread the ball to 8different receivers which kept the LV DEF guessing all game.
The NO DEF was also able to sack LV QBs 4x. Dalton had almost no pressure on him as we sacked 0x. This game was NO17-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there.
L4 NO vs BALT, BALT 3-1 SUATS. NO 1-8 ATS L9 @HOME vs AFC NORTH. NO 1-3 ATS as a HOME in 2022. NO 8-6-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. NO 12-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NO 4-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs vs non-div opp. NO 10-12 ATS on MNF. NO 1-7 ATS L8 on MNF. NO 31`-30-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 31-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NO 11-16-1 ATS L28 @HOME vs AFC. NO 13-4 ATS L17 off SU DOG win. NO 9-9 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 3-8 ATS off DD SU win vs <500 non-div opp. BALT 13-14-1 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 9-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BALT 9-2 ATS vs NFC on MNF. BALT 5-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BALT 2-7 ATS AWAY on MNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 40-30-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 33-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 13-17-1 ATS L31 vs NFC. BALT 12-3 ATS w/rest vs non-div. BALT 12-4 ATS as a FAV >1pts w/rest. BALT 6-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye.
NO QB Andy Dalton knows BALT very well from his days in CINNCY. NO could win this game but they probably will not. BALT has a lot to play for and so does QB Jackson. They have had a nice rest since their last game. BALT needs to put a nice string of wins together so they can make sure that they win the AFC NORTH. CINNCY is the only real threat in the division and they don’t see them until week 18. As for NO, they need to see who will help this team long term and discard those players that are dragging them down. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs NO #14 RUSH DEF. This will be the matchup that will be looked at. BALT needs to establish the run so that Jackson can drop some passes in. NO has a habit of turning the ball over. NO has the worst turnover differential in the NFL @-1.1. BALT is #3 @+0.8. Also, BALT cannot let NO get their running game going. BALT should win this game by a td.
THE PICK: BALT-3
BEST BET OF THE FIVE: TB-3
