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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Saturday December 24th, 2022 1:00pm
NY Giants (8-5-1), (10-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (11-3), (7-6-1) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (4-3-1) ATS NYG+4
LW, NYG did what they had to do to win. They made some nice plays at the end of the game and got lucky on a few. The game could have gone either way but I liked that NYG were +4 ½ because even if WASH managed to win, I felt strongly that it would be by a fg or less. A good thing is that NYG did not turn the ball over and when they don’t turn the ball over it gives them a great chance to win. NYG DE Kayvon Thibodeaux had a great game with a strip sack and recovery for a td that changed the momentum of the game for the NYG. He needs some big plays in this game if NYG have a chance to win. NYG QB Daniel Jones wasn’t sacked 1x and didn’t turn the ball over but MINN will be gunning for him. He needs to be aware of the DEF at all times. LW, if you didn’t see the MINN vs INDY game, I will tell you like this.
One bad team was up 33-0 and the other bad team came back and won 39-36 in OT, ha ha. MINN was very lucky because they dug themselves an improbable hole. INDY showed that you can run on MINN and NYG should keep that in mind. I give credit to MINN for coming back in the game but it should never ever have gotten that bad. INDY also sacked MINN QB Kirk Cousins 7x. That many times and eventually he will fumble.
L10 MINN vs NYG, MINN 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS. MINN 8-5 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. MINN 4-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. MINN 34-33-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 32-41-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. 25-22-2 ATS L49 in DEC. MINN 9-8 ATS L17 vs NFC EAST. NYG 3-8 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 3-7 ATS as a FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. NYG 8-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 6-8-2 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 4-7-2 ATS as a DOG 9<pts in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 46-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 38-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 10-6 ATS after WASH. NYG 4-7 ATS as a non-div DOG off an SU DOG win.
Both of these teams are playing for playoff positions. NYG have played a great season and beyond anyone’s expectations. They were lucky LW but getting the +4 ½ is something that I couldn’t ignore. I felt strongly that if they lost it would be by a fg or less. But they hung on and won. They did get lucky at the end of the game. As for MINN, you really don’t know what you get from week to week. They could either blow out a team, play a close game or get in a game like what happened last week.
The key to beating MINN is stooping their run game and putting it all on QB Kirk Cousins' shoulders If he is pressured he will fold as his history. The MINN DEF is suspect as well. NYG need to play ball control and keep the ball away from MINN’s OFF. NYG S Landon Collins is an added plus in the secondary for NYG because this time around he knows he has to produce. Plus, his experience can help the younger guys. I see this as a tight game and it could come down to a fg if NYG plays right. NYG DEF needs to play BIG. Take the NYG plus the points. NYG needs to spread the OFF out because MINN DEF can be predictable. This should be a very good game.
THE PICK: NYG+4
Saturday December 24th, 2022 1:00pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4), (11-3) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (6-2) ATS @ NE Patriots (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS NE+3 ½
Lw, I was duped into thinking TB would keep it close @HOME vs CINNCY. I was right for the 1st half as TB was leading 17-3. In the 2nd half, TB played like the Texans and gave CINNCY ample opportunity to score often. TB had a missed punt and 4 turnovers which led to 24 straight points by CINNCY and put TB in a hole that they never recovered. CINNCY scored 31 straight points and CINNCY won 31-23. TB added a dummy td to make the score look closer but it was over.
As other QBs were getting praise, I always said that CINNCY Joe Burrow is the real deal. He is better than the others because he doesn’t make mistakes. Plus, he doesn’t get down on himself when he makes them. He picks himself up and moves forward. The CINNCY run game gave Burrow just enough to keep the TB DEF at bay. NE lost a game that they should have won.
They played prevent DEF and that only prevents you from winning. LV is a terrible team and when they win, it just legitimizes their bad football. If you didn’t see the replay, don’t worry, it will be around for ever, so you can’t miss it. One thing I want to say is that it was 24-24 when that stupid play took place and NE should have won it in regulation and that “play” should never have occurred. NE QB Mac Jones had a terrible game and the QB competition should be open next training camp for NE. He was playing against an LV #26 PASS DEF and he couldn’t get the job done.
NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson had a great game rushing 19x for 172yds but he started that disaster “play”. The NE DEF did keep LV RB Josh Jacobs from doing any real damage but they made LV QB Derek Carr look like a superstar. NE deserved to lose. Now they face a tougher team and a much better QB.
L8 NE vs CINNCY, NE 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. NE 0-2 ATS as a HOME DOG in 2022. NE 4-4 ATS L8 as a HOME DOG. NE 8-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NE 24-16-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 23-14 ATS L37 as a DOG. NE 37-17-2 ATS L56 (H) vs non-div. NE 23-11-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs .500>opp. NE 15-10-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. 11-3-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. NE 33-16-2 ATS after an SU loss. NE 12-2 ATS off an SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 17-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. CINNCY 5-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV in 2022. CINNCY 13-5 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 14-5-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 28-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 28-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 3-12 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. CINNCY 22-6 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 10-4 ATS L14 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 12-2 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 12-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 7-6-1 ATS L14 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 0-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss.
Even though that during L8 games between these two teams NE won most of the them, that was during some very lean times for CINNCY. The tables have sort of been turned. The last time that these two teams met in 2019 @CINNCY, with NE winning in a blowout, 34-13. That season CINNCY was 2-14 SU & NE was 12-4 SU. That 2019 season would be the last season that QB Tom Brady would play for NE.
Joe Burrow is like a machine and I got duped LW with Brady and CO on a bouncback that self destructed. Burrow doesn’t let opportunities slip and he executed well in the extra opportunities afforded him by TB. NE has been a disappointment and Jones may not be the guy that will get NE back to the promised land of the SuperBowl. Only time will tell. But right now, CINNCY is like a heavy weight fighter taking on big challenges every week. Since their bye, CINNCY has beaten @PITT, @TENN, vs KC, vs CLEV & @TB. After @NE, they have vs BUFF & vs BALT. The AFC NORTH games are always tough no matter what the records are. CINNCY has been up for the challenge and Burrow is in control. He doesn’t get frustrated and he is spreading the CINNCY OFF so that opposing DEFS do not just key in on any one player. He beats you with the whole team. NE QB Mac Jones is up against a team on a mission and has a better DEF. Lay the points here as CINNCY will roll.
THE PICK: CINNCY -3 ½
Saturday December 24th, 2022 4:00pm
Washington Commanders (7-6-1), (8-6) ATS, (4-2-1) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS WASH+7
On SNF, WASH was @HOME as a FAV-4 ½ vs NYG. These two teams played to a 20-20 tie just a few weeks ago. I had a strong feeling that NYG would prevail even though WASH is a better team talent wise. NYG was just more desperate for a win. This game could have gone either way and it almost did at the end. Both teams ran well but WASH QB Taylor Heinicke had 2fumbles.
One that was a strip sack and returned for a td and the other that was turned into a fg. So it was the DEF for NYG that made two big plays that gave them the 20-12 victory. WASH never led and they were chasing NYG. In fact, Heinicke was sacked 3x while NYG QB Daniel Jones wasn’t sacked 1x. But it came down to the end when WASH had 3rd & goal from the NYG 1yd line and jut couldn’t get into the endzone. A td by WASH was nullified by a penalty and that set them backwards. NYG got lucky this time.
On TNF, SF was @SEA and SF was the ROAD FAV- 3 ½. I liked SF because right now, no one can stop them. They had a 21-6 lead late in the 4th qtr when SEA scored a dummy td to make the score SF 21-13. SF ran a play and SF RB Jordan Mason got down to the SEA 2yd line. But, SF just sat on it and that was the game. SF RB Christian McCaffrey rushed 26x for 108yds & 1td while also catching 6 passes. SF QB Brock Purdy had another nice game going 17/26, 217yds, 2tds &0turnovers. The SF DEF recovered a SEA fumble and turned it into a td which made the score SF 14-3. SEA is lucky that SF didn’t go hyper and score like crazy.
L9 SF vs WASH, WASH 4-5 SU but 5-3-1 ATS. WASH 39-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 41-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 9-14-1 ATS after NYG. WASH 11-3 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 11-7 ATS off DD ATS loss. SF 34-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 36-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 3-13 ATS off SU div ROAD win. SF 6-16 ATS w/rest. SF 9-3 ATS @HOME after SU div ROAD win. SF 1-9 ATS w/rest vs conf opp.
Right now, SF is on a roll and QB Brock Purdy is leading the way. SF is behind him and he’s getting the job done. The DEF is also making plays and that why they have been dominant. SF in their last five games, SF 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. Every game you hear someone else making a big play on DEF. SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. WASH has turned around their season and has found things to build on for next season. They have some nice receivers who can get open and catch the ball. They have three receivers, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel & Jahan Dotson. These three should be around for a while and after a training camp together with Heinicke, watch out.
The DEF for WASH is respectable too and they are waiting for DE Chase Young to add to the mix. WASH #4 TOT DEF. I like WASH because they are getting better with every week. But in this game, SF is just too tough. SF is getting done with everyone and they will win thus game by 10pts. I like WASH but they are just a few players away. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: SF-7
Saturday December 24th, 2022 4:00pm
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1), (7-6-1) ATS, (7-0) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4), (8-6) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (5-3) ATS PHILLY+5
LW, PHILLY was a BIG ROAD FAV+9 @CHI. PHILLY toyed with CHI and let them hang around. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw 2INTS and RB Miles Sanders had a lost fumble. The fumble was turned into 7pts by CHI which at the time made the score, PHILLY 17-13. But this was one of those games where PHILLY knew they were the better team but really didn’t take it seriously. They let CHI hang around and think they had a chance.
The PHILLY DEF did sack CHI QB Justin Fields 6x. But Fields was able to create some havoc and rush for 95yds. However, the biggest concern for PHILLY is a strained shoulder that QB Jalen Hurts suffered on one of his runs. He was tackled hard but legal and he has a strain. His availability is iffy for the game @DAL. Anyway, CHI got a dummy td late which made the final score PHILLY 25-20. LW, DAL was a ROAD FAV-5 @JAGS. I said the pressure was on DAL and I liked the JAGS. JAGS had nothing to lose because they are out of the playoff picture. The pressure was all on DAL.
DAL was up 27-10 but couldn’t hold the lead. I said JAGS HC Doug Pederson knows DAL and he certainly did. JAGS ran all over the DAL DEF and came back big. JAGS rushed for 192yds on 27carries. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence also threw 4tds. The team stats show that JAGS were better than DAL. The final score was JAGS 40-34 in OT off a Dak Prescott INT.
L15 DAL(H) vs PHILLY, DAL 8-7 SU & 8-7 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs DAL, ROAD 17-14 ATS. L31 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 15-16 ATS. L13 PHILLY vs DAL, DAL 8-5 SUATS. DAL 31-46-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 32-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 30-35-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 2-6 ATS off DD ATS loss vs .500>opp. DAL 20-9 ATS as a DIV FAV >2pts. DAL 1-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs .666> conf opp. DAL 6-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts w/revenge. DAL 9-2 ATS w/revenge off SU non-conf ROAD loss. DAL 0-6 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. PHILLY 33-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 40-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 28-40 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 6-12 ATS as a DOG 4>pts vs .900<opp.
Right now, the status for PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is up in the air. DAL is coming off an SU OT loss. DAL 3-6 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. DAL 4-2 ATS as a HOME FAV in 2022. PHILLY 0-0 ATS as a DOG in 2022. However, there are certain things to look at going forward. PHILLY has a great rush OFF, no matter who is carrying the ball. DAL can’t stop the run and their secondary is on life support. PHILLY #4 RUSH OFF vs DAL #24 RUSH DEF.
In wk 6 @PHILLY, PHILLY rushed for 136yds. PHILLY played conservative. Also, at the time, the secondary for DAL was still intact. If Hurts can’t go for PHILLY, Gardner Minshew will be the QB. For PHILLY to be successful, they need to go run heavy, eat up clock and then sprinkle in those passes when needed. Dak is the kind of QB that folds under pressure. He will be nervous and make mistakes because the PHILLY DEF will be coming after him. Prescott was out in that game and Cooper Rush had an awful game and he was pressured into 3INTS. The crowd will be into it at the beginning but will be quieted down when PHILLY starts to dominate. Turnovers in this game will loom large and PHILLY should come out with a win. Take PHILLY & the points.
THE PICK: PHILLY+5
Sunday December 25th, 2022, 1:00pm
GB Packers (6-8), (6-7-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (8-6), (7-7) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS GB+4
On MNF, GB was a HOME FAV-7 vs LAR. I liked GB because LAR is banged up and bad. But if you watched the game closely, GB was a little sloppy and they certainly could have scored a lot more points. GB did make the plays necessary to keep LAR at bay but had LAR been healthy, this game would have been different. That said, it also looked as though GB was trying out some plays which is good, as long as they don’t go terribly bad and result in turnovers. But GB did have 1INT and 1lost fumble that helped LAR hang around until the end of the game.
GB QB Aaron Rodgers looked happy for most of the game and the run game for GB rushed for 138yds, 2tds on 35 carries. The final score was GB 24-12. On Saturday night MIA was a ROAD DOG+7 ½ @BUFF. It was desperation for MIA having lost 2 games to fall to 8-5. BUFF is a tough team and MIA hung in as long as they could. I knew the weather would be a factor and I liked MIA with the points. But the DEF for MIA was a letdown and didn’t make stops when they needed them. BUFF was just too tough. MIA led this game late, 29-21 but, couldn’t hold on and lost at the end 32-29. It was good to see that MIA got their run game going for 188yds, 1td on 25 carries. This takes a lot of pressure off of MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa. He doesn’t have to worry about winning the game all by himself. But the MIA DEF has to get better. The MIA secondary gave up 4tds and DE Bradley Chubb has had 2 ½ sacks in 6 games for MIA. He needs to do better.
L4 GB vs MIA, GB 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. MIA 34-44 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 26-54 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 22-26 ATS L48 in DEC. MIA 9-14 ATS off div ROAD gm. MIA 6-10 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm. MIA 3-6 ATS as a HOME FAV off div ROAD gm. MIA 2-10 ATS as a HOME FAV >3pts off div ROAD gm. MIA 9-3 ATS before NE. GB 17-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 36-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 20-24-1 ATS L45 vs AFC. GB 3-6 ATS before MINN. GB 12-3 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts.
This game has the makings of a shootout. Right now Rodgers is looking at film on the MIA secondary. GB #15 TOT OFF vs MIA #23 TOT DEF w/#27 PASS DEF. On the other hand, GB #2 PASS DEF will be a match for MIA #3 PASS OFF. GB is still in the hunt and could be a spoiler against teams that they are playing. MIA hasn’t looked good in their L3 games and they haven’t beaten a team that was .500> since wk 3. MIA beats bad teams, loses to good teams. Not a good combination if you want to go deep into the playoffs.
The Achilles heel for MIA is their secondary and GB is still in the hunt because there are so many bad teams in the NFL. Rodgers & CO will relish the warm weather and wreck havoc on a MIA DEF. I feel strongly that this game will be close, unless turnovers get in the way. I like GB with the points and suspect that they might even pull off the upset. It should be a good game.
THE PICK: GB+4
BEST BET OF THE FIVE: SF-7
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
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