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#3 Rafael Nadal
In at number 3 is the current world number 1, Rafael Nadal. Though it may seem strange to place the top-ranked player at number 3, when one takes into account Nadal's recent record against Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on hardcourts, it seems fair.
Nadal has failed to defeat either player outside clay in over five years, and that doesn't look as though it will change any time soon. Although the Spaniard won the US Open last year, which is also played on hardcourt, the draw opening up meant he played just one player in the top 15.
Unless Nadal gets the same kind of draw at the Australian Open, it seems unlikely that he will win the title. Furthermore, he looked far from his best at the ATP Cup, losing to both David Goffin and Djokovic in straight sets.
Due to Nadal's grinding style, if his fitness levels aren't at 100%, he is in big trouble. Nevertheless, as one of the greatest players ever and the current world number 1, he always has a chance to win and therefore sits as the third favorite.
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