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Roger Federer and the No. 1 ranking were synonymous until about two years back. After having spent 285 weeks at the top, Roger was only one week short of the record 286 weeks set by his idol, Pete Sampras. Beating this record would’ve been the icing on cake for Federer who had already broken many records, like winning 16 major titles.
Two more weeks at the No. 1 spot seemed not so difficult two years back, but Rafael Nadal had other plans and on June 07 2010, he overtook Federer. After that, it was a rough road all the way for Roger Federer. Only one appearance in a Grand Slam final over last 9 tournaments made the title drought at Majors even more severe.
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All this could change over the coming weekend, with Roger Federer taking on the current No.1 Novak Djokovic in the semi-final at the All England Club. Some say this could be a re-match of the French Open SF last month, in which Federer lost to Djokovic in straight sets (6–4, 7–5, 6–3) after having beaten Djokovic in 2011 SF (7–6, 6–3, 3–6, 7–6). With Rafael Nadal’s early exit in the second round, the winner of Federer-Djokovic Semi Final will have a relatively easy final against either Murray or Tsonga.
The points table above shows that this could be the last chance for Federer to find a place at the top of chart(assuming his game will only drop next year). Winning the semi-final and the final(top right box in light-yellow), will put Federer 75 points higher than the current No.1 and holding this for next two weeks will ensure that he breaks the record of Sampras. Winning the SF, but still losing the final against Murray or Tsonga will put Federer 725 points below Novak at No.2 with an even narrower margin of 555 YTD (year till date/race till final points) points.
Losing the SF on the other hand, would still earn Federer the No. 2 spot. This will put Novak on a margin of 2485 points, in case he goes on to win the final also or 1685 in case he loses. Novak on the other hand would be targeting this huge lead of more than 2,000 points in both current ranking and YTD points, which could virtually guarantee him the No.1 spot for the second consecutive year.
Surprisingly Nadal on the other hand, after losing the No. 2 rank in current rankings, is still maintaining second rank (YTD) behind Novak in all scenarios, except the one where Federer takes the title. This is only possible because he has most points till date because of an exceptional clay season.
The semi-final(Novak vs Federer) on Friday will be nothing short of a thriller, and will play an important role in the year-end rankings.
Some say to be the No.1 in the world you have to rise to the occasion; well it’s about time to rise.
