Cincinnati Open 2025: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (9) Elena Rybakina vs (19) Elise Mertens

Date: August 11, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $5,152,599

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens preview

Rybakina at the Cincinnati Open 2025 - Source: Getty

Rybakina has had a solid 2025 season and holds a 38-15 record. She won her first title in over a year at Strasbourg in May, lifting her ninth career trophy after a tough three-set final. She also reached the semifinals in Dubai and made consistent runs at big tournaments. These results have helped her maintain a high ranking.

Mertens has been equally potent this year with a 25-9 win-loss record. She claimed two singles titles, one at the Singapore Open and another at the Libema Open.

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Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens head-to-head

Rybakina and Mertens have faced each other six times, with Rybakina holding a 5-1 lead. Their most recent clash came at the 2024 French Open, where Rybakina won 6-4, 6-2. Earlier that year, she beat the Belgian 6-1, 6-0 in Brisbane on hard court. In 2023, Rybakina triumphed in Miami 6-4, 6-3 on hard.

The pair met in Cincinnati in 2021, with Rybakina scoring a 6-3, 6-2 win. That same year in Madrid, Mertens earned her lone win in the rivalry, winning 7-6(4), 7-5 on clay.

Their first meeting came in Shenzhen in 2020, where Rybakina won 6-4, 4-6, 6-2. Overall, Rybakina leads 4-0 on hard, and they are tied 1-1 on clay.

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Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Elena Rybakina	-250	-3.5 (-140)	Over 21.5 (-110)
Elise Mertens	+190	+3.5 (-105)	Under 21.5 (-130)

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Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens prediction

Elise Mertens at the The Championships - Wimbledon 2025 - Source: Getty

In Cincinnati, Rybakina brings form and confidence from her semifinal finish in Montreal. She's looking sharp and battle-tested on tour with a strong 4-6, 6-0, 7-5 win over Renata Zarazua in the second round.

Mertens is no slouch either. She defeated Clervie Ngounoue 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 in the second round in Cincinnati. Her consistent performance across surfaces makes her a threat.

However, Rybakina’s hard-court rhythm and her mental toughness highlight her as the slight favorite. The World No. 10's ability to grind through tight matches and deliver under pressure gives her an edge.

Mertens might test her, but Rybakina’s overall consistency and recent form suggest she’ll advance. The Kazakh's previous victory at this event could carry mental weight going into their next showdown.

Pick: Rybakina in three sets