French Open 2023: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential SF between Novak Djokovic & Carlos Alcaraz

Bhargav
French Open 2023 men
French Open 2023 men's draw analysis, preview and prediction

The men's singles draw for the upcoming 2023 French Open was announced on Thursday, May 25.

Carlos Alcaraz will lead the field as the top seed, for the first time at a Grand Slam. Daniil Medvedev - fresh off his first singles title on clay in Rome - will be the second seed. 22-time Grand Slam winner Novak Djokovic and last year's runner-up Casper Ruud round out the top four seeds.

Without further ado, here's a look at a quarter-wise analysis of the draw, the top four seeded players and dark horse in each quarter, and the expected quarterfinal lineup at the 2023 French Open:


First Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas on collision course

Seeded players: (1) Carlos Alcaraz, (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (10) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (14) Cameron Norrie

Dark horse: Cameron Norrie

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz opens his campaign against Australia's Christopher O'Connell.

Despite making a late start to the season, Alcaraz is having a great season. The 2022 French Open quarter-finalist has lost only thrice in 33 matches this year and won four titles, including three on clay.

Having lost early in Rome last fortnight, Alcaraz will be itching to return to winning ways quickly. However, he has a few potentially dangerous opponents in his quarter of the draw.

Tsitsipas, the 2021 finalist, is the highest seed in Alcaraz's quarter and could meet the Spaniard in a blockbuster quarter-final. The Greek has serious claycourt pedigree, and could provide Alcaraz a stern test in the last eight.

Felix Auger-Aliassime and reigning Rio de Janeiro champion Cameron Norrie are the other seeded players who could throw a spanner in Alcaraz's quest to go all the way.

Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas


Second Quarter: Novak Djokovic gunning for Grand Slam No. 23

Seeded players: (3) Novak Djokovic, (7) Andrey Rublev, (11) Karen Khachanov, (13) Hubert Hurkacz

Dark horse: Stan Wawrinka

Third seed Novak Djokovic will begin his quest to become the first male player to win 23 Grand Slam titles with a first-round match against Aleksandar Kovacevic.

Djokovic drew level with Rafael Nadal atop the all-time men's Grand Slam leaderboard by winning the Australian Open earlier this year. But he hasn't had the build-up to the French Open that he would have hoped for.

The Serb suffered an early loss at Monte-Carlo, going down to Lorenzo Musetti in the third round. He then stumbled in the inaugural Banja Luka quarter-finals, presumably hindered by injury, and skipped Madrid.

Djokovic returned to action in Rome, but lost in the quarter-finals. That means he hasn't won a title since the Australian Open, a long gap by his standards.

Assuming he has recovered from the injury that has troubled him the last few weeks, the Serb is fancied to make a deep run this fortnight. But the likes of Rublev, Khachanov and 2015 winner Wawrinka could have other ideas.

Wawrinka is expected to be a dark horse in this quarter of the draw. That said, he has only won 12 of his 22 matches so far in 2023.

Rublev, meanwhile, has done well on clay this year, winning his first Masters 1000 title on the claycourts of Monte-Carlo. And Khachanov has been a solid performer at the French Open, reaching the second week five times in six appearances, including the last eight in 2019.

Expected quarter-final: Novak Djokovic to beat Andrey Rublev


Third Quarter: Is Casper Ruud ready for his Grand Slam breakthrough?

Seeded players: (4) Casper Ruud, (6) Holger Rune, (9) Taylor Fritz, (16) Tommy Paul

Dark horse: Francisco Cerundolo

In the absence of the legendary Rafael Nadal, fourth seed Casper Ruud has a golden opportunity to make his Grand Slam breakthrough on his favored surface.

After an underwhelming start to the season, Ruud is beginning to come into his own on red clay. The 2022 French Open finalist won his first title of the year - and ninth on clay overall - in Estoril before reaching a third straight Rome semi-final.

In fact, Ruud was two holds away from a first final at the Foro Italico. But he squandered a set and a break lead to Holger Rune - whom he could meet in the last eight at the French Open.

Rune is having a breakthrough season, especially on clay. The Dane came close to winning his maiden Masters 1000 title on the surface at Monte-Carlo, going down to Rublev in a tightly contested final. He then defended his Munich title before making the Rome final (lost to Medvedev) last week.

Apart from the two Scandinavian stars, this section of the draw also has the in-form American Taylor Fritz, who has made giant strides on clay this year. Although he's yet to reach a final on the surface, Fritz made the last four in Monte-Carlo and Munich and the fourth round in Rome.

Argentina's Francisco Cerundolo is a dark horse in this quarter, having reached the quarter-finals in both Barcelona and Rome. That said, the 28-year-old is winless in two previous main draw appearances at the French Open.

Predicted Quarterfinal: Casper Ruud to beat Holger Rune


Fourth Quarter: Could Daniil Medvedev win the Rome-French Open double?

Seeded Players: (2) Daniil Medvedev, (8) Jannik Sinner, (12) Frances Tiafoe, (15) Borna Coric

Dark horse: Dominic Thiem

Second seed Daniil Medvedev has been the player to beat this year, even on clay. Yes, you heard that right.

The 2023 ATP match wins leader (39) blazed a trail on hardcourt in the first quarter of the year, and that confidence has translated to his performances on clay too. Medvedev has had very promising results in the European claycourt swing, historically his most hated part of the year.

After making the Monte-Carlo quarter-finals, the 27-year-old Russian unexpectedly went all the way in Rome. Winning his first title on the surface has catapulted him to No. 2 in the standings and a possible showdown with top seed Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open final.

However, Medevedev's route to his first final in Paris is strewn with hazards galore. In one of the strongest quarters of the draw, Medvedev will have to contend with the in-form Jannik Sinner, Frances Tiafoe and Borna Coric.

Sinner has reached the Monte-Carlo semifinals and Barcelona quarter-finals this year. He has reached the second week at the French Open in all three of his previous appearances, including the quarter-finals in 2020.

Coric is another dangerous opponent lurking in Medvedev's quarter, having made the semi-finals in Madrid and the last eight in Rome. The Croat, however, has not reached the second week at the French Open in seven previous appearances.

Expected Quarterfinal: Medvedev to beat Sinner


Semifinal Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Novak Djokovic

Daniil Medvedev to beat Casper Ruud


Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Daniil Medvedev

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