French Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Roland Garros

Rohit
Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek is one of the semifinal matches at the French Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek is one of the semifinal matches at the French Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (5) Iga Swiatek

Date: June 5, 2025

Tournament: French Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €56,352,000

Live Telecast: USA - TNT Sports, TruTV, HBO Max | UK - Eurosport | Canada - TSN, RDS


Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the French Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Aryna Sabalenka at the French Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on three-time defending champion Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the French Open 2025.

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Sabalenka dispatched Kamilla Rakhimova, Jil Teichmann, Olga Danilovic, and Amanda Anisimova in straight sets to set up a quarterfinal showdown against Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen. She had lost their recent encounter at the Italian Open in straight sets a few weeks ago.

Sabalenka was off to a slow start, falling behind 4-2. But a loose service game by Zheng in between helped Sabalenka sweep the next three games to go 5-4 up. The top seed let go of a set point on her opponent's serve at 6-5, who saved it with a brilliant passing shot. However, Sabalenka came out on top in the ensuing tie-break to take the set.

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The Belarusian landed the first blow in the second set to go up a break, though her younger rival broke back immediately to stay on level terms. However, she snagged another break and consolidated her lead this time.

Zheng served to stay in the match at 5-3 and went 40-0 up on serve, but the World No. 1 secured a final break of serve for a 7-6 (3), 6-3 win.

Swiatek kicked off her title defense with routine wins over Rebecca Sramkova, Emma Raducanu, and Jaqueline Cristian. She staged a comeback to beat Elena Rybakina in the fourth round to make the last eight, where Elina Svitolina awaited her.

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The Pole swiftly captured the opening set for the loss of only one game. Swiatek overcame a break deficit to get back on serve in the second set.

Svitolina had her chances at 5-4 to take the set but failed to capitalize. The match was over soon after that, with the defending champion claiming the remaining games for a 6-1, 7-5 win.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek head-to-head

Swiatek leads their rivalry 8-4. Sabalenka won their previous encounter at the Cincinnati Open 2024 in straight sets.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Aryna Sabalenka-135+1.5 (-325)Over 22.5 (-105)
Iga Swiatek+110-1.5 (+210)Under 22.5 (-140)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek prediction

Iga Swiatek at the French Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Iga Swiatek at the French Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Sabalenka has made the last four here for the second time following her previous semifinal finish in 2023. Swiatek, meanwhile, extended her winning streak in Paris to 26 matches.

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Swiatek leads their rivalry 8-4, and has a 5-1 edge on clay as well. She won both of their matches on the red dirt last year, including the thrilling Madrid Open final in which she saved three championship points.

Sabalenka's serve has played a crucial role in her last two wins, helping her navigate tricky opponents such as Zheng and Anisimova. Her adaptability has also helped her reach this far. She switched things up when she realized she was coming up short in forehand exchanges in the previous round.

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Swiatek displayed her own sense of adaptability against Rybakina in the fourth round. After losing the first set tamely, she moved closer to the baseline during return games, which eventually turned the tide in her favor. She has also handled her emotions better, even when things haven't gone her way.

Swiatek hasn't reached a final since her French Open triumph a year ago, and that could weigh on her mind. However, Sabalenka has her own nerves to deal with. She lost her previous semifinal here from match point up against Karolina Muchova.

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Based on their results this year, the top seed should be the favorite. However, beating the defending champion on her own turf could be a tough challenge even for the world's best player.

Pick: Iga Swiatek to win in three sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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