Is Novak Djokovic's Australian Open 2022 participation dependent on his marketability?

The Novak Djokovic vaccine saga is finally over.

For more than two months, the tennis world was abuzz with speculation, questions, and rumors surrounding the Serbian's participation at the 2022 Australian Open. Will he play? Is he vaccinated? Has he applied for a medical exemption? Will he be granted a medical exemption?

Some of these questions have now been answered by the World No. 1 himself. The Serbian took to Instagram to announce his participation in the first Grand Slam of the year after receiving a medical exemption from an independent medical committee.

The legalities and ethics of this particular decision are already being hotly debated on social media. The decision has given rise to a new set of questions and speculation.

Novak Djokovic is the favorite at the Australian Open, which he has won nine times. Is that why the authorities relented? For months they had said they wouldn't make exceptions for any athlete. Does it have anything to do with quelling the anger of an increasing portion of the populace who believe that vaccines are an infringement on personal choice?

Or is the simplest explanation really the best one? Was Novak Djokovic really eligible for a medical exemption?

The Australian Open's official statement does not offer clarifications. Medical records, in any case, are confidential. Therefore, it is not possible to draw any conclusions from any of the statements made so far, either by Djokovic or the Australian Open authorities.

So, for now, let's focus on a much simpler question.

From a purely marketing point of view, does Novak Djokovic bring in the numbers? Do as many fans throng to the court to watch the World No. 1 in action as they do in the case of his rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer?

And did the Australian Open in any way succumb to the pressure because of what Novak Djokovic's non-participation entailed for them?

What do the numbers say in Novak Djokovic's favor?

Novak Djokovic's 2021 US Open final against Daniil Medvedev invited fewer viwers than the women's final

Facts and figures are not independent of context. And the context here is slightly complicated courtesy the COVID-19 pandemic.

More and more people stayed home in the last two years due to lockdowns and curfews. This meant that there were more people watching TV than usual. It could be argued that tennis had more viewers in the last couple of years simply because it was on air and they were at home. The numbers, therefore, must be considered with a pinch of salt.

US Open and Roland Garros

Novak Djokovic faced Daniil Medvedev in the final of the 2021 US Open where he was looking not just for his 21st Grand Slam title, but also for the elusive Calendar Slam. Thus, there would have been a lot of interest around this encounter.

The numbers? Average viewership of 2.05 million viewers, with a peak of 2.7 million viewers between 6:15 pm and 6:30 pm according to the tournament's official broadcasters ESPN.

The Djokovic-Medvedev numbers were a 47% improvement (1.48 million) from the 2020 US Open final between Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, but 21% below (2.75 million) the 2019 US Open final between Rafael Nadal and Medvedev.

Since the Russian is a constant, is it fair to say Rafael Nadal brings 21% more viewership than Novak Djokovic? No, because we cannot account for the increase in people who tuned in to watch Medvedev between 2019 and 2021.

Meanwhile, the women's singles final between teenagers Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez the previous day attracted an average of 2.44 million viewers, with a peak of 3.4 million viewers between 6 pm and 6:15 p.m.

There is absolutely no way Raducanu and Fernandez should have been a bigger draw than Medvedev and Djokovic, and that is not even counting all the records that were at stake for the Serb.

Granted, Djokovic had to compete against the NFL opening weekend. But, with a chance of history being made, the match should have pulled in more viewers.

Roland Garros, on the other hand, tells a very different story. The 2021 final between Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas had a peak audience of 7.6 million, which is the highest in the history of the tournament.

The 2020 final between Rafael Nadal and Djokovic peaked with 1.7 million fewer viewers at 5.9 million. The tournament took place unprecedentedly in October of that year, but even compared to the 2019 final between Nadal and Thiem (5.47 million), 2021 sees a 72% improvement in peak viewership.

Australian Open and Wimbledon

The 2021 Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev averaged 425,000 viewers, down 28% from the 2020 final between Djokovic and Thiem (588,000 viewers). It was also the least-watched men’s final since at least 2007, according to ESPN.

When Novak Djokovic defeated Matteo Berrettini in the 2021 Wimbledon final to lift his 20th Grand Slam, an average of 1.6 million viewers tuned in to watch him equal the record of his rivals Nadal and Federer.

But these numbers were lower than the 2019 final between him and Roger Federer, where 3.83 million viewers had tuned in to watch the battle of two tennis legends. Federer's absence at the 2022 Australian Open will also affect the ratings.

This survey of numbers can lead to the conclusion that on his own, Djokovic is not able to draw the same ratings as Federer and Nadal. However, he is more marketable than the new generation of players on the ATP tour.

Novak Djokovic was the fourth most marketable tennis player in 2021

On Forbes' 2021 list of highest-paid tennis players of the year, Roger Federer is predictably at the top. In off-court earnings alone, the Swiss made about $90 million. Second is Naomi Osaka who made $55 million off the court, followed by Serena Williams who made $40 million in endorsement deals.

Contrary to expectations, Rafael Nadal does not occupy the fourth spot. The Spaniard's $23 million off-court earnings puts him $7 million and one spot behind Novak Djokovic.

The data points to the marketability of the World No. 1. People associate the products he endorses with his success.

The Australian Open authorities could not have ignored all of this. And perhaps it wouldn't be fair to expect them to ignore all of this either.

Money talks. In a sport like tennis, it talks a lot. Millions of dollars are given out as prize money, and it has to come from somewhere. In the midst of a global pandemic where new variants threaten attendance revenue, it comes predominantly from broadcast deals.

And broadcasters require TV ratings. It cannot be denied that a championship match featuring Djokovic will lead to better ratings than a final not featuring the three-time defending champion.

So it was always in the best interest of the Australian Open and the ATP tour that Novak Djokovic played. And that is what has happened. Two mutually exclusive events that just happened to occur independently of one another, supposedly.

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