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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (8) Zheng Qinwen
Date: May 14, 2025
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Quarterfinal
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: $6,831,315
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen preview
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face eighth seed Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Italian Open. So far in the 2025 season, Sabalenka is leading the Tour in terms of wins and points with three titles from six finals. She has won two WTA 1000 titles this year already in Miami and Madrid, along with reaching the final of the Australian Open, which she lost in a three-set thriller against Madison Keys.
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At the Italian Open, Sabalenka received a bye in the opening round due to her seeding and began her campaign with a 6-2, 6-2 win over Anastasia Potapova in the second round. In the third round, she had to come back after dropping the first set to win 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 against 31st seed Sofia Kenin. She then won 6-1, 7-6 (8) against Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round to reach her fourth WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the season.
Zheng Qinwen has won 12 of her 19 matches she has played in 2025 so far. After starting the season slowly, she has gained some momentum as she has reached three quarterfinals in her last four events before the Italian Open. Her best results of the year were reaching successive quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Miami, losing against the likes of Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, respectively.
After receiving a bye in the first round, Zheng began her Italian Open campaign with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Olga Danilovic. She then secured another dominant 6-3, 6-2 win over 26th seed Magdalena Frech in the third round and then won 7-5, 6-1 against a returning Bianca Andreescu in the fourth round to reach her fourth quarterfinal of the season.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen head-to-head
Sabalenka has a 6-0 head-to-head record against Zheng, including her last 6-2, 7-5 victory over the Chinese player at the Miami Open this year.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen prediction
In their six matches so far, Sabalenka and Zheng have both won 72 percent of their respective first serve points. However, the World No. 1 has held the edge in the second serve, winning 54 percent of her second-serve points compared to Zheng's 36 percent. She has broken Zheng's serve 26 times in six matches, whereas Zheng has broken Sabalenka's nine times in their rivalry.
In case of their track record at the Italian Open, Sabalenka was last year's finalist, losing 2-6, 3-6 against Iga Swiatek. Meanwhile, Zheng has reached the quarterfinals in Rome in the last two editions as well, losing 6-7 (4), 1-6 against Coco Gauff last year.
This will be the first clay-court meeting between Sabalenka and Zheng, as all their six matches have been on a hard court. The top seed is the favorite to win, as she is in stellar form and has a dominant head-to-head against her Chinese opponent.
Pick- Sabalenka to win in three sets
