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Day 5 of the Italian Open 2025 will mark the start of the third round of women's singles on Saturday, May 10. Title favorites Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek scored easy wins over Anastasia Potapova and Elisabetta Cocciaretto respectively in the previous round.
However, fourth seed Coco Gauff had to dig deep and staged a comeback to beat Canadian teenager Victoria Mboko 3-6, 6-2, 6-1. Bianca Andreescu scored the biggest win of her comeback by beating 20th seed Donna Vekic in the previous round. Naomi Osaka rallied from a set down to beat Viktorija Golubic 2-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the second round.
Top 20 players Daria Kasatkina and Amanda Anisimova were among the notable names to crash out in the second round. As the focus shifts to the third round, here are the predictions for a few of the women's singles matches set for Day 5 of the Italian Open 2025:
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#1. Ons Jabeur vs Jasmine Paolini
Both players received a bye into the second round of the Italian Open. Paolini beat Lulu Sun 6-4, 6-3, while Jabeur received a walkover from Petra Kvitova, thus reaching the third round without playing a match. The Tunisian previously lost in the second round of the Madrid Open.
Paolini, meanwhile, made the semifinals in Stuttgart and the third round in Madrid during the clay swing. She has a rather dismal record at her home tournament and improved to 3-5 with her latest win. She has also reached the third round in Rome for the first time. Jabeur is a former runner-up in Rome, going down to Swiatek in the 2022 final.
The two have split their previous four meetings evenly to tie the head-to-head at 2-2. Jabeur won their first couple of matches in Madrid and Eastbourne in 2022 and 2023 respectively in straight sets. Paolini snapped the losing skid with a win in Stuttgart last year and won their most recent duel in Miami a couple of months ago via the Tunisian's mid-match retirement.
Both are capable players on clay, though Jabeur has had more success on the surface. However, Paolini is the more in-form player this season by a fair margin. Given her form and the support of the home crowd, the Italian should be able to come out on top in this encounter.
Predicted winner: Jasmine Paolini
#2. Jelena Ostapenko vs Laura Siegemund
Ostapenko received a bye into the second round of the Italian Open. She then overcame a slow start to beat Rebecca Sramkova 1-6, 6-4, 6-3. Siegemund initially lost in the qualifying rounds here. However, she got a spot in the main draw as a lucky loser.
Since Siegemund took over Karolina Muchova's spot in the draw, who was a seeded player, she also received a first-round bye. She was up against Lucia Bronzetti in the second round and beat her 6-2, 6-2, her third career win at the venue. She has advanced to the third round of the Italian Open for the first time.
Ostapenko, on the other hand, has performed quite well at the Italian Open. She reached the semifinals here in 2023 and the quarterfinals a year ago, as well as in 2021 and 2018. This is the only WTA 1000 tournament where she has made at least the last eight in consecutive editions.
Ostapenko won the pair's only meeting at the Miami Open 2024 in straight sets. She also won the title in Stuttgart a few weeks ago to begin the clay swing on a high. She beat Swiatek and Sabalenka en route to the title as well, becoming the third woman to do so this year. Given her form and her record in Rome, she will be the favorite to win against Siegemund.
Predicted winner: Jelena Ostapenko
#3. Diana Shnaider vs Jaqueline Cristian
Following a first-round bye, Shnaider commenced her Italian Open campaign with a 6-0, 6-0 beatdown of Caroline Dolehide in the second round. She previously reached the third round in Charleston, the second round in Stuttgart and the fourth round in Madrid during the clay swing. She also hammered Anastasija Sevastova 6-0, 6-0 in Madrid.
Cristian beat Alycia Parks 6-2, 6-0 in her Rome opener and followed it up with a 7-6 (2), 7-5 win over 23rd seed Yulia Putintseva. This marked her first consecutive wins at the WTA level during this clay swing.
The two have crossed paths twice, albeit never at the main draw level on the WTA Tour. Shnaider won their most recent meeting at last year's Challenger tournament in Charleston, while Cristian had the last laugh during the qualifying rounds in Auckland a couple of years ago.
Cristian has a 4-17 career record against top 20 players and has gone 2-5 against them on clay. She has lost her last five matches against them on the red dirt. The Romanian's struggles against top players gives Shnaider the upper hand in this contest.
Predicted winner: Diana Shnaider
