Italian Open 2025 Final: Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Coco Gauff vs (6) Jasmine Paolini

Date: May 17, 2025

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Final

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: $6,831,315

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini preview

In Picture: Coco Gauff (Getty)

Fourth seed Coco Gauff will take on home favorite and sixth seed Jasmine Paolini in the final of the 2025 Italian Open. For Gauff, this is the second successive WTA 1000 final, as the American player had reached the Madrid Open final as well, losing to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.

Gauff began her campaign with a three-set thriller in the second round against a Canadian teenager, Victoria Mboko, winning 3-6, 6-2, 6-1. She then faced her first seeded opposition in the tournament, winning 7-5, 6-3 against 32nd seed Magda Linette. Gauff's most impressive victory came in the fourth round, a 6-1, 6-2 drubbing of Emma Raducanu.

In the quarterfinal, Gauff won 6-4, 7-6 (5) against seventh seed Mirra Andreeva, extending her head-to-head record to 4-0 against the Russian teenager. In the semifinal, she played a thrilling three-set battle against eighth seed Zheng Qinwen, winning 7-6 (3), 4-6, 7-6 (4) to reach her maiden Italian Open final.

Jasmine Paolini has won 21 of her 29 matches in 2025, reaching her first final in Rome. The Italian's previous best results included a semifinal at the Miami Open, where she lost 2-6, 2-6 against Aryna Sabalenka. She also reached a clay-court semifinal in Stuttgart, losing 5-7, 4-6 against Sabalenka once again.

In her home event in Rome, Paolini received a bye in the opening round and began her campaign with a 6-4, 6-3 against Lulu Sun in the second round. Her next two matches were routine victories- 6-4, 6-3 against 27th seed Ons Jabeur in the third round, and 7-5, 6-2 against 17th seed Jelena Ostapenko in the fourth round.

In her quarterfinal match against 13th seed Diana Shnaider, Paolini had lost the first set and trailed 0-4 in the second set. The Italian showed tremendous mental resolve, winning 12 of the next 14 games, winning the match, 6-7 (1), 6-4, 6-2. In the semifinal against Peyton Stearns, Paolini again trailed 1-4 in the first set. The Italian turned the tables once again, winning the first set 7-5, and then using the momentum to blow her American opponent away 6-1 in the second set.

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Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini head-to-head

The head-to-head is 2-1 in favor of Gauff, but Paolini won the last match 6-4, 6-3 at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix last month.

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Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Coco Gauff	-200	TBD	TBD
Jasmine Paolini	+154	TBD	TBD

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini prediction

Gauff has won 63 percent of her first serve points against Paolini, whereas the Italian has won 55 percent. Both players have been proficient on the second serve, winning 46 percent of the points. Paolini has a 42 percent break point conversion rate, whereas Gauff has a 38 percent break point conversion.

As far as clay-court titles are concerned, Gauff has one title from three finals on the surface, and Paolini has lost both her clay-court finals so far. Both Gauff and Paolini are French Open runner-ups, losing against Iga Swiatek in 2022 and 2024, respectively.

As per the match trends between Gauff and Paolini, whoever has won the first set has gone on to win the match. Therefore, whoever is off the blocks quickly will have a distinct advantage in the final. Even though Gauff has a positive head-to-head record, the mental resilience of Paolini and partisan crowd support make the Italian the slight favorite to win the match.

Pick- Paolini to win in three sets.