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Match Details
Fixture: Tommy Paul (11) vs (7) Alex de Minaur
Date: May 13, 2025
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: ATP 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €8,055,385
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur preview
Eleventh-seed Tommy Paul will lock horns with seventh-seed Alex de Minaur in the fourth round of the 2025 Italian Open on Tuesday, May 13. The winner will face Hubert Hurkacz or Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals.
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Paul's 2025 clay swing commenced at the ATP Houston. The top-seed earned a couple of wins before falling to countryman Jenson Brooksby in the semifinals. He made a similar run in Madrid, winning his first two matches before losing the third. The American suffered a straight-sets loss to Jack Draper in the fourth round.
In Rome, Paul earned a first-round bye, following which he defeated Roberto Bautista Agut, 6-1, 6-4, in the second round. He then earned a hard-fought 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-4 win over Tomas Machac to set up a fourth-round clash with de Minaur.
Meanwhile, de Minaur played three clay tournaments prior to the Italian Open. He was impressive at the Monte Carlo Masters, defeating the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov to reach the semifinals. The Aussie lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the Barcelona Open quarterfinals, following which he suffered a fourth-round exit in Madrid.
De Minaur's Italian Open campaign has been smooth sailing so far. He was barely tested in his opening two matches. Following a first round bye, the Aussie defeated Luca Nardi, 6-4, 7-5, and Hugo Dellien, 6-4, 6-4, to reach the fourth round.
Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur head-to-head
De Minaur has won all his previous five meetings against Paul. The duo's most recent encounter saw the Aussie register a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win at the 2023 Los Cabos Open.
Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM.)
Tommy Paul vs Alex de Minaur prediction
Despite some impressive performances, both Paul and de Minaur have struggled at the business end of clay tournaments this season. Paul prefers playing on clay but hasn't been able to pull off his best performance yet.
De Minaur will be keen to continue his winning streak against Paul. His only meeting with the American on clay was at the 2022 Italian Open, where he won 7-5, 6-4 in the second round.
Paul could pose some threats with his powerful forehand and strong footwork, especially on clay. However, de Minaur's perfect head-to-head record against the American makes him the favorite to go through. Still, it may not be a straight-forward win.
Pick: De Minaur to win in three sets.
