Japan Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match details

Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima

Date: September 28, 2025

Tournament: Japan Open Tennis Championships

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $2,226,470

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima preview

Having come through hard-fought wins in their last encounters, Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima will lock horns for a spot in the 2025 Japan Open semifinal.

Alcaraz, the top seed at this year's tournament, is playing in his first Tour event since lifting the US Open title. He has put together an impressive 2025 season and boasts of seven title and a 61-6 win-loss.

That said, the Spaniard has been made to work hard in Tokyo. He has come through two tight straight-sets wins over Sebastian Baez and Zizou Bergs, even enduring an injury scare against the latter.

Nakashima recently made the Chengdu Open. (Source: Getty)

Nakashima too is in the middle of a solid Asian swing, having also made the semifinals at the Chengdu Open. His overall win-loss for the season stands at a steady 30-23.

Playing in Tokyo, he has come through wins over the likes of Marton Fucsovics and Jordan Thompson. He was especially tested in the opening needing three sets to get the better of the Aussie.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima head-to-head

Alcaraz leads Nakashima in the head-to-head 1-0. The two played at the Next Gen Finals back in 2021, with the Spaniard winning in straight sets.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima odds

(Odds to be updated)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima prediction

Alcaraz had an injury scare in his last match. (Source: Getty)

Both Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima enjoy the quick hardcourts and have been playing well leading up to the match.

The one area where Alcaraz had a slight edge though has to be the serve. He won well over 75% of the points behind the first delivery in the last match as opposed to his opponent's 70%. That said, he will need to stay focused and now allow Nakashima any inroads into the service games.

The American likes to extend rallies and play from the baseline. He could find the change of pace that Alcaraz often throws at his opponents with his dropshots and topspin-heavy forehand slightly difficult to adjust to.

All said and done, the match will be played on Alcaraz's racket. He is the risk-taker and will look to dictate from the baseline. His opponent has the game to push for a marathon, but the top seed's variety and confidence on the big points should come to his rescue.

Prediction: Alcaraz in three sets