Madrid Open 2023: Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (3) Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi

Date: Friday, April 28

Tournament: Madrid Masters 2023

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi preview

Ruud opens his Madrid campaign on Friday.

Third seed Casper Ruud opens his Madrid Masters campaign against Italian qualifier Matteo Arnaldi.

World No. 4 Ruud is coming off successive Round of 16 exits at Barcelona and Monte-Carlo after winning his first title of the season at Estoril. The 24-year-old Norwegian is 11-8 on the season, with more than half those wins (6-2) coming on European clay.

Ruud has had an underwhelming season, considering his staggering exploits in 2022 where he made four finals (two Grand Slam, one Masters 1000 and the ATP Finals). The Norwegian failed to win consecutive matches at his first six tournaments in 2023 before going all the way on Estoril, beating Miomir Kecmanovic in the final.

However, the 24-year-old failed to build on his win, as he lost in the second round at his next two stops. Ruud has a 4-2 record in Madrid, with all four wins coming during his run to the semifinals two years ago, where he lost to Matteo Berrettini.

Meanwhile, World No. 105 Arnaldi improved to 2-2 on the season by seeing off fellow qualifier Benoit Paire in a third-set tiebreak in his opener. The Murcia Challenger winner's only other win on the ATP Tour in 2023 came at Barcelona, where he reached the second round. The 22-year-old Italian is making his Madrid debut.

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head

The pair have never met before, so their head-to-head record is 0-0.

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Casper Ruud	-500	-1.5 (-165)	Over 21.5 (-110)
Matteo Arnaldi	+333	+1.5 (+120)	Under 21.5 (-125)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction

Both Ruud and Arnaldi look to dominate opponents from the baseline, but the Norwegian takes the edge in terms of his game style, consistency and experience, especially on clay.

A quintessential claycourter, Ruud serves big, hits powerful groundstrokes and moves well. Arnaldi shares most of these attributes, but he's a relative greenhorn on clay, which could be his undoing against an experienced campaigner like Ruud.

While the Norwegian is 105-39 on clay, winning nine of his ten singles titles on the surface, Arnaldi is only 2-2. Expect Ruud to see off his Italian opponent without much trouble.

Pick: Ruud in straight sets.

About the author

Bhargav is a veteran sports journalist and editor at Sportskeeda, with a rich professional experience of 17 years, working for the likes of Siemens and Bombay Dyeing. An avid football and tennis follower for over three decades, Bhargav uses his vast knowledge and experience, attention to detail, an unbiased yet interesting writing style, and thorough research to craft insightful articles, which have raked in over 20 million reads so far.

Bhargav supports Italy at national level, a team steeped in tradition and history according to him. He still harbors the heartbreak from the Azzurri’s 1994 FIFA World Cup final defeat against Brazil, and protagonist-turned-antagonist from the game, ‘Divine Ponytail’ Roberto Baggio is his all-time favorite player. His favorite manager is Marcelo Lippi, who ended Italy’s 24-year wait for the World Cup trophy, winning it in 2006.

Outside Europe’s top five leagues, he follows the MLS following Lionel Messi’s move in 2023 but favors Cristiano Ronaldo in the G.O.A.T. debate. During his free time, Bhargav enjoys driving off to new places and singing.

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Edited by Siddharth Dhananjay