Madrid Open 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Daniil Medvedev vs (17) Alexander Bublik

Date: April 30, 2024

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: La Caja Majica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €7,877,020

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik preview

World No. 4 Daniil Medvedev faces Alexander Bublik in the fourth round of the 2024 Madrid Open on Tuesday.

Medvedev staged a comeback to defeat Matteo Arnaldi 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 and set up a third-round showdown with 25th seed Sebastian Korda. The Russian fought hard in the first set and saved five set points but lost the set.

Neither player was successful in converting their break point chances in the second before Medvedev edged out Korda in the ensuing tiebreak to level the match.

Not much separated the two for most of the third set. However, Medvedev's persistence paid off eventually, as he swept the last three games for a 5-7, 7-6 (4), 6-3 win.

Bublik, meanwhile, rallied from a set down to oust Roberto Carballes Baena in three sets to reach the third round, where he was up against 14th seed Ben Shelton. The Kazakh lost the first set after going down an early break.

Both players remained solid on serve in the second set, which led to a tiebreak. Bublik stamped his authority in the tie-break to force a third set. He carried the momentum into the next set to register a 3-6, 7-6 (2), 6-4 win.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik head-to-head

Medvedev leads Bublik 5-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships in straight sets.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Daniil Medvedev	-450	+1.5 (-1200)	Over 21.5 (-105)
Alexander Bublik	+310	-1.5 (+550)	Under 21.5 (-135)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik prediction

Alexander Bublik at the 2024 Madrid Open.

Both have had a similar trajectory to reach the fourth round in Madrid. Medvedev and Bublik have each fought back from a set down in both their matches to make it this far.

Neither player counts clay as their preferred surface of choice. Bublik improved his record in Madrid to 6-3 with his couple of wins this year, while Medvedev did the same to better his record to 5-4.

Medvedev's dominance in this rivalry makes him the overwhelming favorite to win. He has won all five of his previous matches against Bublik and also beat the Uzbek on clay at the 2021 French Open. That win was memorable for him, as it was the Russian's first in Paris.

Both players have dug deep in this tournament. Medvedev's superior defense has always prevailed against Bublik's aggressive tactics. Given the Russian's track record against his rival he should reach his first quarterfinal in Madrid.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets

About the author

Rohit is a journalist at Sportskeeda who specializes in covering tennis. Having been with the company for three years, he has proven himself as a formidable force in the field. With a Master's degree in law, Rohit brings his analytical and research skills to the forefront as a journalist. He stays on top of the game by using social media platforms and never misses a match for on-court insights. He values giving credit where it's due, keeping his reporting fair and accurate.

At the outset of his career, Rohit found his niche in writing previews and SEO pieces and it's this expertise that continues to define his role at Sportskeeda. He is particularly proud of one article that garnered an impressive 750k views and surpassed his "wildest dreams." Rohit is not particularly fond of (GOAT) debates and it is one of the reasons why he left the legal world behind. He prefers to view players in "tiers," where they're all esteemed to an extent. However, if pressed to name favorites, he would choose Serena and Venus Williams. The Williams sisters' journey from humble beginnings to the pinnacle of tennis has been his greatest source of inspiration.

When he isn't busy making spot-on predictions about match outcomes, Rohit likes reading, particularly fantasy, sci-fi, and comics. As an X-Men fanatic, he's also passionate about board games and enjoys watching movies in his spare time. And don't be surprised if you catch him silently wishing to the tennis gods for the removal of ad scoring from doubles.

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Edited by Rohit