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Match Details
Fixture: (6) Alex de Minaur vs (10) Lorenzo Musetti
Date: April 30, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Sony LIV
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti preview
Sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur will face 10th-seeded Lorenzo Musetti for a place in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Masters on Wednesday (April 30).
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Musetti had endured a slow start to his ATP Tour season this year after a calf injury forced his withdrawals from the Argentina Open and the Rio Open in February. The Italian then struggled to get back to form during the Sunshine Double the following month, exiting in the third round of the Indian Wells Masters and the Miami Masters, respectively.
The 23-year-old eventually found rhythm at this month's Monte-Carlo Masters, where he reached his maiden 1000-level final before losing in three sets to World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz. The World No. 11 has carried his rich vein of form into the Madrid Open this fortnight. Having received a first-round bye, he has defeated quality opponents like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tomas Martin Etcheverry in straight sets to reach the fourth round at Caja Magica.
De Minaur, meanwhile, is also playing well in 2025, as evidenced by his 24-8 win/loss record thus far. The Aussie has fared well on clay, his weakest surface, making it to the semifinals in Monte Carlo and last eight in Barcelona earlier this month. Just like Musetti, the World No. 7 has also not dropped a set en route to the Round-of-16 in Madrid with wins over Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Sonego.
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head
Musetti leads de Minaur by a slight margin of 2-1 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. Musetti defeated the Aussie 1-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters earlier this month in what was the only claycourt encounter of their rivalry.
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti odds
All bets sourced from BetMGM.
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction
De Minaur has become much more aggressive from the baseline in the last few years. The 26-year-old isn't afraid of taking risks by going for winners, with his cross-court forehand being a big weapon in his arsenal at the moment. That said, the sixth seed's movement is by far his defining trait, especially on clay.
Musetti has also been playing with increasing conviction in the last few months. The 23-year-old is capable of changing shot direction and depth on his single-handed backhand at a whim, which doesn't allow his opponents to target him from that wing.
The keys to winning for both players in this interesting match-up will be to dominate from their forehand wing. While Musetti has a high-margin, loopy forehand, he tends to leak uncharacteristic errors during cross-court rallies when put under pressure. In that regard, de Minaur might be able to overpower his younger opponent from the back of the court to reach the quarterfinals in Madrid.
Pick: De Minaur to win in three sets.
