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Day 5 of the 2025 Japan Open promises to be a cracker with several top names in action. Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud are the two seeded players in the line-up but have tough second-round opponents in Nuno Borges and Matteo Berrettini, respectively.
The likes of Sebastian Korda, Daniel Altmaier, Aleksandar Vukic, and Sho Shimabukuro round out the singles players on the match card on Friday (September 26). Without further ado, let's take a look at how some of the Round-of-16 clashes at this week's Japan Open will likely go down:
#1 Taylor Fritz (2022 Japan Open champion) vs Nuno Borges
Taylor Fritz narrowly escaped a first-round upset at the 2025 Japan Open earlier on Thursday (September 25). The American reversed a set deficit against Canada's Gabriel Diallo to eventually win 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) in just over two hours. Nuno Borges, meanwhile, also enjoyed a similar victory on Day 4 as he beat local favorite Yosuke Watanuki 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 to advance to the second round.
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The second seed leads the Portugese 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings, having defeated him in their lone career encounter at the 2024 Delray Beach Open in straight sets. The 27-year-old is the firm favorite to win this match and reach the quarterfinals in Tokyo.
Predicted winner: Taylor Fritz to win in straight sets.
#2 Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini
Casper Ruud is still on the mend from a left knee injury that forced his Wimbledon withdrawal earlier in July. The Norwegian's hardcourt form has clearly regressed since, as evidenced by his second-round exit from the US Open earlier this month. Nonetheless, even on his worse days, the former World No. 2 is capable of fighting like he did in his 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 win over Japan's Shintaro Mochizuki at the 2025 Japan Open on Thursday.
Matteo Berrettini was also out due to a right oblique injury recently, which led to him sitting out of this month's US Open. While the Italian was expected to be rusty in his tour-level comeback, he exceeded expectations with a 6-4, 6-2 drubbing of Spain's Jaume Munar. Provided he can maintain the same level, fourth-seeded Ruud might be in for a rude shock in their second-round encounter in Tokyo.
Predicted winner: Matteo Berrettini to win in three sets.
#3 Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro
Sebastian Korda recently fell outside the top 50 ATP rankings after struggles with inconsistency in 2025. Needless to say, the American is looking for some redemption at this week's Japan Open and has looked composed so far, beating compatriot Marcos Giron 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4) to reach the second round of the 500-level event.
Sho Shimabukuro, who qualified for the main draw in Tokyo quite comfortably, has yet to drop a set this week. The Japanese World No. 273 beat fifth-seeded Tomas Machac 6-3, 7-6(4) in a huge first-round upset on Day 4. While he is not favored against Korda to win, the 28-year-old has certainly inspired the local fans at the Ariake Coliseum with his tennis thus far.
Predicted winner: Sebastian Korda to win in straight sets.
#4 Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Vukic
Daniel Altmaier made quick work of former semifinalist Denis Shapovalov earlier on Wednesday, beating the Canadian 7-5, 6-3 to advance to the second round of the 2025 Japan Open. Looking to reach the quarterfinals of an ATP Tour event for the first time since February, the German is likely to receive plenty of resistance from Aleksandar Vukic.
After successfully qualifying for the Tokyo main draw, the Aussie put together a dogged performance to get the better of former World No. 23 Damir Dzumhur 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 on Day 4 of the ATP 500 tournament. The 29-year-old qualifier beat his higher-ranked opponent in their solitary career meeting at Wimbledon two years ago but will likely receive more pushback from the latter on the faster hardcourts in Tokyo.
Predicted winner: Daniel Altmaier to win in three sets.
