Rafael Nadal: The comeback and the implications

On the surface of it, men’s tennis remains as consistent as ever. The world no. 1 just re-etched his superiority by winning his sixth grand slam title against the world no. 3, while the remaining two of the top-four reached the penultimate stages of the Australian Open without suffering any dramatic upsets. But still, in spite of all of these facts and stats, Rafa’s unavailability cast a shadow on what could have been and now after his comeback, what could possibly be.

Thus, it’s no wonder that Rafa’s comeback into the playing circuit has ended up being a hot topic of discussion for quite some time now. The ramifications of the Spaniard’s return to the tennis world, after what has probably been his longest forced leave of absence, are rather monumental. And not just for him alone. Especially considering that his return is in synchrony with the start of the clay season.

And though his start remains perfect at the VTR Open in Chile, even by his own acknowledgement, Rafa’s left knee continues to pose a niggling problem. Even if the VTR Open acts mainly as a testing ground for his fitness levels, come the major events at Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid and the French Open, Rafa’s performance – or the lack of it – is sure to determine the trajectory for the 2013 season.

There are many who stand to gain, in case Rafa falters. Novak Djokovic’s name is the first that comes to mind, thinking about such an eventuality occurring. Almost like a reflex. As invincible as Rafa has been on clay, Nole’s red-hot streak provides him with a definite edge over the Spaniard this year. The 2012 French Open final was a marathon by all standards, but the repercussions of that match ended up short-changing Rafa for the remainder of the 2012 season; extending even to the start of 2013. In comparison, there are no such doubts about Nole’s fitness levels nor is there any shadow lingering on his ability to sustain the momentum in case the matches start to prolong. Looking at the bigger context of the French Open, it somehow only seems fair to put all eggs in Nole’s basket, however premature it may sound.

Speaking of Nole’s best chances at the French Open this year, there was once a time when all eyes used to be focused on Roger Federer to come up with a befitting performance against Rafa on clay. In three of the Swiss’ four-straight French Open finals between 2006 and 2009, he came well short against Rafa. Not to blame him, but as good as Federer was, Rafa was way better and there was nothing that Roger could do to cause Rafa any problems. 2009 however was the clincher. And Federer came through then, winning his 14^th slam and his maiden French Open title in a single shot. It was by no means easy but Federer at that point made everything look just about right. 2013 isn’t 2009 but Federer has continued to be a dominating factor on clay. It however remains a difficult riddle to solve as to whether Federer can potentially take on a tentative Rafa in the quarters or semis of the French Open and emerge unscathed.

Many players have spoken quite positively about Rafa making a comeback. But commenting off-court is quite different from when a player meets and reacts to an opponent facing him on the other side of the net. With Rafa trying to make a foray back, it stands to reason that players like Andy Murray and David Ferrer would be extremely wary about Rafa gaining on them, and possibly even surpassing them.

David Ferrer’s dogged nature emerges anew on clay even as he continues to run his opponents ragged around the court for hours and hours together. All opponents, except for Rafa that is. With not much ranking points separating Rafa and Ferrer, the permutation of whether or not Rafa is able to gain inroads back into the top-four remains an interesting prospect to anticipate over the course of these four months.

In contrast, Andy Murray’s performances on clay have never stood out, as they do generally on the hard and grass courts. Though the rankings won’t probably alter much in Rafa’s favour till the end of the clay court season, they definitely would be a governing factor once the grass court season starts and then onto the American hard-court season. With literally no ranking points to defend in comparison with the Scot, the pressure would be on Murray to substantiate his 2012 performance.

Unlike in the past, 2013 could probably be the first time when Rafa won’t start as the unambiguous favourite. And as weird as it sounds, it’s probably quite a good thing for the Spaniard. Lowered expectations, lowered anticipation all over; maybe these could raise the bar for him, even as his fitness status continues to present an unwanted and questionable picture.