Shanghai Masters 2025: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Novak Djokovic-Ben Shelton QF, Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz QF

The ATP Tour's top stars will assemble in China for the Shanghai Masters 2025 for the next fortnight. The season's penultimate Masters 1000 tournament will take place from October 1-12.

Barring the injured Jack Draper, the entire top 10 is in the fray. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz leads the field, followed by defending champion Jannik Sinner. Ben Shelton and Novak Djokovic return to action for the first time since the US Open.

Players will begin to make their final push for the remaining ATP Finals spots as well. With a 1,000 points up for grabs here, the current standing in the race to Turin could change significantly. The draw for the Shanghai Masters was revealed on Monday, September 29, and here's how it could unfold over the next two weeks:

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First Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz seeking his maiden Shanghai Masters title

Carlos Alcaraz at the Japan Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Seeded players: (1) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Alex de Minaur, (9) Karen Khachanov, (16) Daniil Medvedev, (18) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, (24) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (29) Brandon Nakashima, and (30) Cameron Norrie

Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur

Dark horse: Learner Tien

Carlos Alcaraz has stamped his authority over the rest of the tour over the past five months, winning six titles from eight finals, including the French and US Opens, along with three Masters 1000 titles. He has reached the final of every tournament he has participated in since April. He will aim to keep that streak going against Casper Ruud in the semifinals of the Japan Open on Monday (September 29).

Alcaraz's quest for a maiden Shanghai Masters crown will begin against either American teenager Learner Tien or Miomir Kecmanovic. With four wins over top 10 players this year, the Spaniard will need to be on his toes if he bumps into the 19-year-old.

A win will set up a potential third-round date with Cameron Norrie. Alcaraz leads their rivalry 5-2. Daniil Medvedev is likely to be his fourth-round opponent. The top seed has won their last four meetings, and leads their overall rivalry 6-2. Based on the seedings, Alex de Minaur should await him in the quarterfinals.

The Aussie will first need to get past the likes of Brandon Nakashima, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov to make the last eight. However, having lost all four of his previous matches against Alcaraz, de Minaur isn't expected to pose a threat if they meet here.

Quarterfinal prediction: Carlos Alcaraz def. Alex de Minaur

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Second Quarter: Alexander Zverev aiming to capture his first Masters 1000 title of the season

Alexander Zverev is a former Shanghai Masters finalist. (Photo: Getty)

Seeded players: (3) Alexander Zverev, (8) Lorenzo Musetti, (12) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (15) Jiri Lehecka, (17) Jakub Mensik, (23) Denis Shapovalov, (26) Luciano Darderi, and (28) Alex Michelsen

Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti

Dark horse: Zhou Yi

Alexander Zverev was expected to be a strong contender to win big titles this year after his runner-up finish at the Australian Open. However, he hasn't made another Major or Masters 1000 final this year. A runner-up at the Shanghai Masters in 2019, he will now aim to bag his first Masters 1000 title of the year.

Zverev has a pretty decent path to the fourth round, with his potential opponents in each round being Mariano Navone, Alex Michelsen, and either Denis Shapovalov or Jiri Lehecka. However, Felix Auger-Aliassime or Lorenzo Musetti could put him in a spot of bother in the quarterfinals.

The German has lost his last three matches against Musetti, including at this year's Italian Open. Auger-Aliassime also sent him packing from the US Open a few weeks ago. Should he encounter either of them, his time at the Shanghai Masters could be in jeopardy.

Quarterfinal prediction: Felix Auger-Aliassime def. Alexander Zverev

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Third Quarter: Novak Djokovic eyeing a record 41st Masters 1000 title

Novak Djokovic has won the Shanghai Masters four times. (Photo: Getty)

Seeded players: (4) Novak Djokovic, (6) Ben Shelton, (11) Casper Ruud, (13) Andrey Rublev, (19) Francisco Cerundolo, (22) Flavio Cobolli, (25) Frances Tiafoe, and (31) Gabriel Diallo

Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton

Dark horse: Sebastian Korda

Novak Djokovic won his 100th career title at the Geneva Open earlier this year. He also reached the semifinals of all four Majors, and finished as the runner-up at the Miami Open. He went down to Jannik Sinner in last year's Shanghai Masters final. He has won four titles at the venue, and has lost prior to the quarterfinals here just once in his career.

Djokovic will begin his quest for a record-extending 41st Masters title against the winner of the match between Marin Cilic and Corentin Moutet. Frances Tiafoe could await him in the third round, followed by a potential fourth-round duel with either Andrey Rublev or Flavio Cobolli. With a winning record against all of his potential opponents, he will be favored to make the quarterfinals once again.

This will be Ben Shelton's first tournament since retiring from his third-round contest at the US Open earlier this month. He will begin his campaign against either David Goffin or Alexandre Muller. Goffin already beat him at the Mexican Open earlier this year, and if he's not fully fit, then history could repeat itself.

Sebastian Korda, a semifinalist at the Shanghai Masters in 2023, is a player who could do some damage in this part of the draw. Unseeded on account of a drop in his rankings following an injury hiatus, he could make the quarterfinals provided he manages to get past Capser Ruud in the second round. Regardless of who makes it out of this section, they're likely to lose to Djokovic in the end.

Quarterfinal prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Casper Ruud

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Fourth Quarter: Jannik Sinner bidding for a successful title defense at the Shanghai Masters

Jannik Sinner at the Shanghai Masters 2024. (Photo: Getty)

Seeded players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Taylor Fritz, (10) Holger Rune, (14) Alexander Bublik, (20) Tomas Machac, (21) Ugo Humbert, (27) Tallon Griekspoor, and (32) Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Expected quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz

Dark horse: Jenson Brooksby

Jannik Sinner will aim to become the first player to mount a successful title defense at the Shanghai Masters since Novak Djokovic did the same in 2013. He has reached the final of every hardcourt tournament he has competed in since the Cincinnati Open 2024.

Sinner has a 39-5 record this year, with four of those losses coming to Carlos Alcaraz. He also has a 20-2 record on hardcourts this season. He's currently through to the quarterfinals of the China Open, where he will take on Fabian Marozsan on Monday (September 29).

Sinner will begin his title defense against either Daniel Altmaier or a qualifier. Jenson Brooksby could be his possible third-round opponent, followed by a fourth-round meeting with Alexander Bublik. The Kazakh is the only player other than Alcaraz to beat Sinner this year.

Taylor Fritz will be favorite to make the last eight from his section. Holger Rune is the only real threat to him based on the form of his previous opponents, such as Stan Wawrinka and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Rune and Fritz are on track to meet in the fourth round.

Sinner leads Fritz 4-1 in the head-to-head, winning their last four matches, including the US Open and the ATP Finals finals last year. However, the American will be feeling confident following his win over Alcaraz at the Laver Cup, and will aim to one-up Sinner as well.

Quarterfinal prediction: Jannik Sinner def. Taylor Fritz

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Semifinal predictions

Carlos Alcaraz def. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Novak Djokovic def. Jannik Sinner

Final prediction

Novak Djokovic def. Carlos Alcaraz