What does Matteo Berrettini need to do to pull off the impossible & beat Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final?

Stan
Matteo Berrettini will be up against Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final
Matteo Berrettini will be up against Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final

To challenge and defeat an immovable object, you need to be an unstoppable force yourself. But what are your options if your opponent is both an immovable object and an unstoppable force? In other words, what do you do if your opponent is Novak Djokovic?

That question would have grayed quite a few hairs on Vincenzo Santopadre's head as he prepares his charge, Matteo Berrettini, for Sunday's showpiece Wimbledon final.

Sure, Berrettini has a colossal serve and an equally monstrous forehand, meaning that on a good day he can blow most opponents off the court. The Italian has also worked on his movement and his backhand slice, which were instrumental in semifinal his win over Hubert Hurkacz on Friday.

But against a peak Novak Djokovic, Matteo Berrettini has a scarily uphill task. And for those wondering how the current version of the Serb can be called 'peak Novak Djokovic' if he struggled against Denis Shapovalov in the semifinals, you only need to look at the scoreline. Djokovic could withstand the best of Shapovalov despite playing in second gear for most parts of the match; what will happen if he hits top gear?

This is a man who has lost only three of his last 16 Major finals, a run that started at Wimbledon 2014 - where he beat Roger Federer to claim his second title at the Championships. Only Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have beaten Djokovic in a Major final since then.

Roger Federer (way back in 2007) and Andy Murray are the only other men to have ever denied the Serb at this stage of a Slam.

Can Matteo Berrettini channel a Stan Wawrinka and beat Novak Djokovic?
Can Matteo Berrettini channel a Stan Wawrinka and beat Novak Djokovic?

If Matteo Berrettini wishes to pull off the unthinkable and become only the third man to beat Novak Djokovic in a Slam final since 2014, he will have to play out of his skin for practically every second of the match. And even that may not be enough.

As is usually the case against the Serb, Berrettini will have to fight three battles on Sunday - one against Djokovic's accuracy and weight of shot, one against his supreme physical prowess and defense, and one - perhaps the toughest of them all - against the 34-year-old's indestructible mental strength.

So without further ado, let us look at some of the things Matteo Berrettini must do in order to beat Novak Djokovic on Sunday (which he most probably won't):

1. Matteo Berrettini must hide his backhand from Novak Djokovic as much as possible

Novak Djokovic will test Matteo Berrettini's backhand
Novak Djokovic will test Matteo Berrettini's backhand

Matteo Berrettini's backhand is by far the weakest aspect of his game. But it is not a nothing shot, the way some are making it out to be. The Italian's backhand slice in particular dealt considerable damage against Hubert Hurkacz, keeping dangerously low on the grass.

But the 25-year-old's topspin backhand will be under severe stress against Novak Djokovic.

The Serb, who owns the best backhand on tour, will target Berrettini's weaker wing relentlessly to maneuver the rallies in his favor. Djokovic will also likely hit his crosscourt backhand with more depth and pace to keep the Italian pinned in the backhand corner.

To overcome this roadblock, Berrettini has two options - change direction by going down the line (this is something Djokovic will also attempt to get him on the run, which is one of his weaknesses) or move around to take the shot on the forehand.

Stan Wawrinka often used the latter method to great effect against Novak Djokovic. But the Swiss could have lived without that too, given he do almost as much damage with his backhand. Berrettini does not have that luxury.

Novak Djokovic will also likely make several forays into the forecourt area, just like he has been doing so far. Djokovic will likely direct his approach shot to Berrettini's backhand - a tactic that has worked well against the Italian recently.

The backhand slice may not always be a good ploy for Berrettini, as Djokovic could easily put it away by charging the net. That leaves the 25-year-old with the only other option: run around the backhand as much as possible, and don't give the World No. 1 too many looks at it.

2. Matteo Berrettini's needs to be inch-perfect with his serve and serve+1 combination

Matteo Berrettni serving
Matteo Berrettni serving

Matteo Berrettini's biggest weapon is arguably his first serve. Not only does it allow him to win cheap points, but it also often helps him set up an easy forehand winner on the serve+1 shot.

The Italian has struck 101 aces so far at Wimbledon, including the 22 he racked up against Hurkacz in the semifinals. And out of the 349 first serves that Berrettini has landed so far, he has won the point on 285 occasions - which amounts to a whopping 81.6% success rate.

On the second serve, the seventh seed has a success rate of 61.3%, which is not shabby either.

However, these numbers will likely witness a dip given the strength of Novak Djokovic's return. The Serb has the uncanny ability to place even the biggest of serves right on the line or close to the corner, putting the opponent on the backfoot instantly.

Djokovic will also likely target Berrettini's backhand with his return of serve, to try and take his forehand out of the equation.

So the equation for Berrettini is simple (on paper): he needs to serve even better in the final than he has all tournament. He also cannot afford to miss any putaways he gets on the serve+1 shot.

Targeting the Serb's forehand with his serve in order to reduce the angles could be a useful tactic for Berrettini. And to keep the five-time champion guessing on the return games, a few body serves here and there might also come in handy.

3. Unforced errors should not deter Matteo Berrettini from playing his natural game

Outlasting Novak Djokovic in long rallies is an exceptionally difficult task for anyone, let alone someone like Matteo Berrettini who is not known for his movement. The Italian will, therefore, have to play the role of the enforcer on Sunday by keeping points short and finishing them efficiently with his forehand.

That means Berrettini will have to take more risks than usual to try and impose himself on Djokovic. More risk means greater chance of unforced errors, but that shouldn't deter the Italian from playing his forehand-reliant aggressive game.

Denis Shapovalov employed a similar approach against the five-time champion, and it almost paid off for him in a set. It is doubly important for Berrettini to not get into a defensive mode against Djokovic, as his defense isn't good enough to turn around points against a player like the Serb.

Matteo Berrettini's foremost plan must involve robbing Novak Djokovic of time by taking the ball on the rise. He also cannot afford to give Djokovic any short balls, as that would mean he gets pushed behind the baseline.

Stan Wawrinka has shown in the past that the best way to outplay Novak Djokovic is by taking the game to him on every single point and hitting as big as humanly possible. Doing that not only throws the Serb off balance but also creates doubts in his mind.

Berrettini has to follow the Wawrinka template if he has any hopes of pulling off the unimaginable.

4. Matteo Berrettini needs to get off to a good start and take an early lead

Will the crowd turn hostile to Novak Djokovic once again?
Will the crowd turn hostile to Novak Djokovic once again?

Novak Djokovic has displayed exemplary mental strength throughout his career. In fact, it wouldn't be wrong to use his name as the synonym of 'mental strength' in the English language.

At Roland Garros, Djokovic twice overturned a two-set deficit - against Lorenzo Musetti in the Round of 16 and against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. That showed everyone that even taking a big lead against the Serb doesn't dent his belief much.

Still, it will be absolutely crucial for Matteo Berrettini to try and pocket the first set on Sunday. Why? Simply put, Novak Djokovic will himself be under tremendous pressure in the final, given that he is on the cusp of tennis history.

Djokovic is just one short of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal's all-time Slam record of 20. He is also on course to complete the coveted and elusive Calendar Slam, so he knows that even the slightest blip can rob him of a great opportunity.

Moreover, the Serb will likely face a partisan Centre Court crowd that will throw their weight behind Berrettini. So if the Italian can take the opening set, Djokovic will be fighting three different things: his opponent's confidence, his own internal pressure, and the crowd.

Fighting this three-pronged battle could possibly prove to be too tall an order even Novak Djokovic.

Matteo Berrettini took Novak Djokovic to four sets at Roland Garros, which is a great feat in itself given that the match was on clay. Grass is Berrettini's strongest surface, and so he can be expected to do better on Sunday.

However, the task before the inexperienced Matteo Berrettini is indescribably enormous, and will likely prove to be beyond him. Novak Djokovic is not one to waste an opportunity to make history, and it is highly doubtful that he will fail to bring his A game to the court on Sunday.

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