Why Iga Swiatek might strangely benefit from no longer being the favorite at French Open

Iga Swiatek has been the dominant force at Roland Garros in the past couple of years. She was the overwhelming favorite to win the event essentially every year in the past five years, but she won’t be that this year—and it might be a good thing.

Swiatek won her maiden Roland Garros in 2020, and it was the pandemic edition, which was held after the US Open in conditions that were very different than usual. It was cold and devoid of sun, and it was a teenager who stormed to win the trophy against all odds.

The final was Swiatek against Sofia Kenin, who had lost 6-0, 6-0 in Rome just a few weeks before that, so it was a very bizarre final. What wasn’t bizarre was the level Swiatek had that fortnight as she stormed past Kenin to lift her maiden Grand Slam trophy.

She wouldn’t win her next one the following year, but she did win again in 2022. It was a thrashing of everybody who stood in her way as she proved herself to be the queen of clay. Tremendous movement on the surface—the best of any player on Tour—as well as very capable shot-making was too much to overcome.

She became world number one that year and never looked back—kind of. A third title came in 2023, and it was the hardest one yet, as Karolina Muchova made sure her opponent had to sweat a lot. Last year was another one that wasn’t easy, but the final was rather simple, as Jasmine Paolini simply couldn’t find a solution for Swiatek’s shot-making.

A 35-2 career record at the event for the Polish superstar, who had been the heavy favorite to win each year since her triumph in 2020. No more. It mostly comes down to the Polish player having a really rough year overall.

Yes, she’s 27-9 on the year, which is a record any player on Tour would want, but the eye test hasn’t been impressive. She’s up to three losses on clay already, which is the most she’s had on this surface since 2019. Yes, that’s significant.

She lost two sets on this surface with a zero, which almost never happens. She got smashed by Coco Gauff 6-0, 6-1 in Madrid, which is absurd, and she’s yet to make a final on this surface three events into the clay season. All of this is very, very far from the norm.

Iga Swiatek will not be the favorite at Roland Garros

Iga Swiatek at Roland-Garros 2024. - Source: Getty

So, what’s the epilogue of all this struggle for Iga Swiatek? Well, she’s about to be world number four after Rome, which is the lowest she’s been ranked since 2022. She’s also not going to be the top seed heading into Roland Garros, and she certainly won’t be the favorite heading into the event because that’s likely to be Aryna Sabalenka.

If anything, there is a strong case to be made that both Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva are bigger favorites to win the event. Is that a problem? Not really, because who is favored doesn’t really matter. What matters is who lifts the trophy in the end.

You don’t have to be a seed to do that, as Emma Raducanu proved a few years ago. If anything, not being the favorite for the event could be a blessing in disguise for Swiatek. She’s expressed some discomfort with being considered this unbeatable player who can’t ever lose a match before. It’s a very particular kind of pressure that some players simply don’t enjoy.

She’s shown herself to be quite easy to irritate in recent weeks, especially with her level on the court, so it’s pretty clear that Swiatek has been battling elevated stress for a while. Perhaps zoning out of that and being able to refocus from a standpoint of actually not being expected to win matches or the event would be beneficial for her.

She certainly hasn’t been terrible by any means. She’s still one of the best players in the world, with the shot-making capability to rival any player. Her movement has at times looked a bit off, especially on clay, which is something that can be addressed and fixed.

The bottom line is that she still will have chances at Roland Garros. She’s still a player capable of winning the event if she plays her best or close to her best, and that’s what it simply takes. To win a Grand Slam, you have to play close to your best, and Swiatek knows that. She’s capable of that, but for the first time in almost half a decade, she won’t be expected to win it.

Perhaps that lack of pressure and urgency will help her unlock what’s been hidden from her for a while now—her best tennis. And in doing so, she might win it again.