What if AEW starts a new Monday Night War?

For months, rumors have brewed about a new wrestling company led by Cody Rhodes. The shape of All Elite Wrestling has crystalized in recent weeks with the announcement of Double or Nothing and the rollout of the corporate structure and the promotion’s first signings. AEW has a billionaire’s backing, Rhodes and The Young Bucks at the helm, and big-time signees that include Chris Jericho and the former Neville.

AEW is, therefore, uniquely positioned to challenge WWE in a way that no wrestling promotion really has since WCW went under in 2001. What if AEW tries to reignite the Monday Night War?

The Monday Night War saw WCW’s Nitro go head to head with WWE’s Raw in the most watched era pro wrestling has ever enjoyed. WCW famously beat WWE for 83 consecutive weeks, before WWE emerged the ultimate victor. Impact Wrestling made a stab at reigniting the magic of Monday night competition in 2010 when it moved to airing opposite Raw as well. That era of going head to head was less a war than a massacre as WWE won soundly every week that the two companies aired at the same time.

It’s unclear how AEW might do if they get a TV deal with a reasonably prominent network and broadcast on Monday nights. This article takes a look at five possible outcomes if AEW were to give it a try.

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#5 The end of the brand split

The current brand split era might be brought to an abrupt close.

There would surely be a feeling out period in a new Monday Night War, in which WWE would stay conservative and waited to see if AEW would actually pose a threat. If the upstart promotion did get some real traction, though, and either drew solid ratings or meaningfully cut into WWE’s viewership, we can bet that Vince McMahon would take action.

One card Vince McMahon has in his back pocket is to end the brand split. While the general consensus is that having two brands is a good thing to feature more talents and a more diverse set of storylines and matches, there’s also the reality that having separate Raw and SmackDown rosters does keep big stars relegated to one show a week, and hold off prospective big matches. If WWE feels threatened, then having top stars like John Cena, Daniel Bryan, Seth Rollins, Becky Lynch, and Ronda Rousey on every TV show would be a logical enough move to maximize viewers, especially among more casual fans.

#4 John Cena returns full time

John Cena may return to a full-time spot in WWE.

There is a certain logic to keeping a handful of major stars on part-time status to make their appearances feel more special, and to keep them fresh even as they’re entering the twilight of long careers. However, if WWE were to enter into another period of legitimate competition with another promotion, there would also be a rationale to pull out all of the stops.

John Cena has largely transitioned away from full-time wrestling in favor of his acting career. A part of what has made him such a big part of WWE’s success over the last fifteen years is his willingness to almost always do what the company asks of him. If Vince McMahon does come calling, because WWE feels it is in jeopardy, and particularly while the company is waiting and seeing on Roman Reigns, the odds are that Cena will continue to show his loyalty to the company that made him and come back full time.

#3 Time differences

The McMahons and Raw will almost certainly have more TV time to work with than AEW.

At the present moment, it’s a bit of a leap to presume All Elite Wrestling will get a TV deal, let alone one that airs on Monday nights. If the stars were to align on these factors, thus setting up a new Monday Night War, we do have to assume that we won’t be comparing apples to apples—it’s highly unlikely a network will give AEW the same three hours that Raw has to work with.

Many would argue that three hours is more of a burden than a benefit, and indeed some of WWE’s difficulties with producing consistently entertaining Raws over the last year can be attributed to having too much TV time to fill. However, if WWE does have one or even two additional hours to work with besides the time it’s in direct competition, we can bet they’ll use that to their benefit to generate interest, and stack the deck with their highest profile material during the time when they do go head to head.

#2 The first year tells the tale

How Cody Rhodes and AEW do in their first year will be very telling.

The Monday Night War between WCW and WWE lasted for over five years, affording time for the tides to change between the two companies before WWE emerged a decisive victor. The head to head competition between Impact and WWE lasted a much shorter period of time, grounded in the fact that WWE won the ratings war so decisively every time out.

If All Elite Wrestling were to go up against WWE on Monday nights, the first year may well tell the tale. As a new promotion, if they can’t at least prove themselves as competitive with WWE, it’s likely that the network will move their show out of direct completion if not cancel it outright.

#1 Impact Wrestling fades further

The Impact Wrestling that Jeff Jarrett originally found may lose its niche altogether if AEW thrives in a Monday Night War.

For a time, the general consensus was that Impact Wrestling was the number two wrestling promotion in the US. After all, they had a national TV deal, PPVs available on most cable systems, and a roster that included big names from WWE and WCW.

Time has not been altogether kind to Impact. The Monday Night War they chose to declare hurt the company, and the era in which Hulk Hogan wielded major influence over the company seemed to do a great deal more financial harm than good. Combine all that with Impact losing TV deal after TV deal and while an argument could still be made that Impact is number two in the US, it’s difficult to place them squarely above Ring of Honor, Lucha Underground, or even New Japan.

All Elite Wrestling looks primed to fill the role Impact had long sought as a rock solid number two, if not genuine rival to WWE. If AEW were to succeed in making a new Monday Night War competitive, there may be even less room than ever before for Impact to find TV deals and justify its niche with fans.