Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Game 2 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 8, 2025

The Diamondbacks won Game 1 convincingly, 6-3, and head again to Petco Park with confidence looking to keep the momentum going. Merrill Kelly will take the mound, looking to build on an impressive season, but the Padres won't go down without a fight. Nick Pivetta, coming off a subpar outing, is looking to come back with a fury in front of his home crowd.

With power bats like Manny Machado and Corbin Carroll set to take their swings, this game ought to have its fair share of tense moments as both teams maneuver for advantage in this tight series.

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Pitcher & Hitter Matchups

Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)

Kelly has been a rock for Arizona this season, pitching 104 innings with a solid 3.55 ERA and a dependable 1.09 WHIP.

He's struck out 103 batters at 8.9 per nine innings while keeping walks and home runs nicely in check. His veteran presence and steady control are key to trying to quiet the Padres' loud offense tonight.

Nick Pivetta (Padres)

Pivetta has been in great form this year, sporting a 9–2 record with a 3.25 ERA, and a razor-sharp 1.04 WHIP in 97 innings. He's striking out hitters at a rate of nearly 10 per nine innings and very rarely gives away free passes, walking just 2.2 per nine.

In his last outing, he allowed only one run in six quality innings against the Phillies, striking out six without walking anyone. Pivetta's mix of command and swing-and-miss stuff will keep the Diamondbacks' hitters on their toes all night.

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Hot Hitters

Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks)

Carroll has been a dynamic presence for Arizona, batting .250 with 20 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases this season.

He continued his hot streak yesterday, going 2-for-5 with a double, a triple and an RBI. Carroll’s speed and power combination makes him a constant threat on the bases and a key player the Padres will need to contain tonight.

Manny Machado (Padres)

Machado stands among San Diego’s most dangerous bats, hitting .293 with 15 home runs, 53 RBIs and eight stolen bases this season.

He showed his power and consistency recently, going 3-for-5 with a solo homer against the Diamondbacks on July 7. Machado’s ability to deliver in crucial moments makes him the Padres’ most dangerous bat heading into tonight’s game.

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Projected Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks (Home Team)

• RF Corbin Carroll (L)
• 2B Ketel Marte (S)
• SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
• 1B Josh Naylor (L)
• 3B Eduardo Suarez (R)
• DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
• LF Jordan McCarthy (L)
• C Jose Herrera (S)
• CF Alek Thomas (L)
• SP: Merrill Kelly (R) - 7-4, 3.55 ERA

San Diego Padres (Away Team)

• RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
• CF Jorge Merrill (L)
• 3B Manny Machado (R)
• 1B Luis Arraez (L)
• LF Gavin Sheets (L)
• SS Xander Bogaerts (R)
• 2B Josh Cronenworth (L)
• DH Trenton Brooks (L)
• C Manny Maldonado (R)
• SP: Nick Pivetta (R) - 9-2, 3.25 ERA

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Injury Report

Diamondbacks

• Shelby Miller (forearm) – 15-day IL
• Ketel Marte (groin) – day-to-day
• Gabriel Moreno (finger) – 10-day IL

Padres

• Ryan Bergert (forearm) – 15-day IL
• Michael King (shoulder) – 60-day IL

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Current Odds

• Diamondbacks Runline (+1.5): −199
• Padres Runline (−1.5): +162
• Over 7.5: −119
• Under 7.5: −102
• Diamondbacks Moneyline: +111
• Padres Moneyline: −136

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Best Bets & Predictions

Score Prediction: Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Top Bets

1. Padres Moneyline (−136) – Pivetta’s strikeout edge and home field give San Diego the edge.
2. Under 7.5 runs (−102) – Two strong pitchers facing mid-tier offenses predict a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

Value Parlay: Padres ML & Under 7.5 – combines a win with a controlled run total for decent returns