Mets vs. Padres: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks

The New York Mets and San Diego Padres begin their series with both teams relying heavily on their respective offensive leaders.

Pete Alonso's power stroke and clutch RBI hitting lead the Mets' effort, while Fernando Tatis Jr.'s combination of power and speed is front and center for the Padres.

As the two teams get together, pitching matchups and timely hitting will be key in what shapes up to be a tight opening series.

Starting Pitchers

Frankie Montas (Mets, RHP)

Montas returns to the Mets’ rotation following a right lat strain. Since being activated in late June, he’s posted a 3–1 record with a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings, striking out 23. His command remains a concern, but he has enough raw stuff to keep the Padres’ hitters honest.

Dylan Cease (Padres, RHP)

Cease remains a high-strikeout arm despite a rough season. He’s 3–10 with a 4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a whopping 144 Ks over 113⅔ innings. His K/9 of 11.4 ranks among the highest in the majors, but his inconsistency has led to frequent long balls and early exits.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Pete Alonso (New York Mets)

Alonso is hitting .266 this season with 22 home runs and 81 RBIs, proving his prowess for the Mets. His ability to drive in runs and consistently get on base makes him a crucial figure in New York’s lineup, especially in high-leverage situations.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres)

Tatis Jr. brings a dynamic presence to the Padres, batting .268 with 17 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 72 runs scored. On top of his power, his 22 stolen bases highlight his speed and threat on the basepaths, making him a threat that opposing pitchers must carefully navigate.

Probable Lineup

New York Mets (Away Team):

LF Brandon Nimmo (L)
SS Francisco Lindor (S)
RF Juan Soto (L)
1B Pete Alonso (R)
CF Jeff McNeil (L)
DH Mark Vientos (R)
2B Brett Baty (L)
C Francisco Alvarez (R)
3B Ronny Mauricio (S)
SP: Frankie Montas (R) 3-1, 4.62 ERA

San Diego Padres (Home Team):

RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
DH Luis Arraez (L)
3B Manny Machado (R)
CF Jackson Merrill (L)
SS Xander Bogaerts (R)
LF Gavin Sheets (L)
1B Jake Cronenworth (L)
2B Jose Iglesias (R)
C Martin Maldonado (R)
SP: Dylan Cease (R) 3-10, 4.59 ERA

Injury Report

New York Mets:

Jesse Winker (Back) – 10-day IL
Tylor Megill (Elbow) – Rehab assignment
Paul Blackburn (Shoulder) – 15-day IL
Christian Scott (Elbow) – Out indefinitely

San Diego Padres:

Michael King (Shoulder) – Expected early August
Joe Musgrove (Elbow) – Out for the season
Jhony Brito (Elbow) – Out for the season
Ethan Salas (Back) – Minor league IL

Current Odds

Run Line: Mets +1.5 (−194) | Padres −1.5 (+158)
Total: Over 8 (−111) | Under 8 (−109)
Moneyline: Mets +109 | Padres −132

Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Padres 5, Mets 3

Top Bets:

Padres Moneyline (−132) - Cease’s strikeout upside and Montas’s shaky command create mismatch potential for the Padres.
Over 8 Total Runs (−111) - Both pitchers can be homer-prone, and bullpen depth is shallow, priming for a run-heavy game.

Value Parlay: Padres ML + Over 8, combines the likely scoring environment with Cease’s volatility working in San Diego’s favor.

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Gio Vergara

Mets vs. Padres: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 28, 2025