MLB Insider says the New York Mets trading Carlos Carrasco could be a bigger risk than reward

MLB Insider Danny Abriano reckons Carlos Carrasco's place in the New York Mets rotation is dicey. But in his analysis, Abriano also said that trading Carrasco away might pose even more challenges for the Mets.

"The Mets might be able to get similar value from David Peterson or Tylor Megill, but trading Carlos Carrasco would be a big risk. Should the Mets trade Carlos Carrasco before the season if they can get a strong return?" Danny Abriano said (via @SNYtv on Twitter).

The Mets exercised their right to sign Carlos Carrasco for the 2023 season, as it was the last year of his contract before he became a free agent. Carrasco was retained for $14 million in November 2022, which brought his overall contract with the New York Mets to $48.25 million.

Carlos Carrasco has made quite the name for himself at the New York Mets after the franchise brought him in during the Francisco Lindor trade in 2021. Earlier, he played 11 seasons with the Cleveland Indians and won the American League Comeback of the Year award in 2019.

Since picking up Carrasco's contract, the Mets have built their pitching rotation around him by signing other key free agents. After some time, where they have already splashed huge sums of money, the Mets must have contemplated trading Carrasco.

Their rotation also includes the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. The lineup is formidable enough to make a deep run in the playoffs, but if the team were to say goodbye to their 35-year-old pitcher, that would be for two major reasons.

Firstly, New York will be looking to sign a no.4 starter who can be in control for one particular season at a relatively low price. Secondly, the Mets must be absolutely sure they can purchase the same value in the rotation from either David Peterson or Tylor Megill if Carrasco is traded.

In comparison, either Peterson and Megill, individually or together, could provide the same backup that Carrasco was providing. But relying on both of them to pitch for 170 or so innings throughout the season might be a big gamble, considering at the top of the rotation are two veterans, followed by Senga, who is just starting off in the majors.

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Carlos Carrasco's longevity issues might be a problem for the Mets

Texas Rangers v New York Mets

The main concern for the Mets is Carlos Carrasco's ability to sustain the entire season without being sidelined. He pitched 152 innings last season, almost three times more than his numbers in 2021. However, Carrasco wasn't up to the mark in the second half of 2022 after he had to leave a game against the Atlanta Braves in August due to left-side tightness.

Even then, he was one of the highest-rated players in the MLB when it came to chase and walk rate. Carrasco gave an above-average performance in the whiff and barrel percentage. However, what troubles his stats the most is his hard-hit percentage which was in the 32nd percentile.