Padres vs. Mariners: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 25, 2025

MLB: Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres - Source: Imagn
Padres vs. Mariners: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 25, 2025 - Source: Imagn

San Diego Padres (74-57) head out to Seattle Monday night looking to halt a three-game road losing streak when they start a short series with the Mariners (70-61) at T-Mobile Park. Both teams are in second place within their divisions, so this series is important to their playoff hopes.

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Seattle has thrived at home with a 39-26 mark and second-best in the American League with 186 home runs, while San Diego has been coasting on pitching and hit-by-pitch timing to stay over .500 on the road. With JP Sears facing Bryce Miller, the opener is the fourth game of the season between the teams, and both clubs will be looking for momentum in the stretch run.


Starting Pitchers

Padres - JP Sears (LHP)

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Sears steps in for San Diego after rejoining the big-league rotation post-deadline move. The Padres confirmed him for this turn last week, and he’s slated again here. He profiles as a strike-thrower who can live at the edges; when ahead, the changeup plays to both-handed hitters. Command and keeping the ball in the park are the swing factors.

Mariners - Bryce Miller (RHP)

Miller is 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 53.2 innings, battling command and efficiency problems throughout 2025. When Miller has his fastball working up in the zone, he can be tough, but his inconsistencies leave Seattle’s bullpen exposed. The Mariners will need him to find some stability at home to keep pace in this series.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Ryan O’Hearn (Padres)

O’Hearn has been one of San Diego’s more steady bats in 2025, hitting .279 with 16 homers and 53 RBIs. His ability to deliver contact from the left side adds balance to the Padres’ lineup. O’Hearn’s consistency at the plate makes him a key piece as San Diego looks to generate offense away from home.

Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

Raleigh has emerged as Seattle’s biggest power bat this season, slugging 49 homers with 106 RBIs and 14 steals, production that places him among the most dangerous catchers in baseball. He enters this series red-hot, coming off a 3-for-5 game with two home runs and four RBIs in Sunday’s win over the Athletics. Raleigh is the bat San Diego’s pitching staff must approach with extreme caution.

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Injury Report

Seattle Mariners:

  • Trent Thornton: 60-Day IL (Achilles)
  • Dominic Canzone: Day-to-day (Arm)
  • Logan Evans: 15-Day IL (Elbow)
  • Gregory Santos: 60-Day IL (Knee)
  • Ryan Bliss: 60-Day IL (Biceps)

San Diego Padres:

  • Jackson Merrill: 10-Day IL (Ankle)
  • Michael King: 15-Day IL (Knee)
  • Jhony Brito: 60-Day IL (Forearm)
  • Joe Musgrove: 60-Day IL (Elbow)

Current Odds

  • Run Line: Padres +1.5 (−199) | Mariners −1.5 (+161)
  • Total: Over 8.5 (−102) | Under 8.5 (−120)
  • Moneyline: Padres +104 | Mariners −126

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bets

  1. Mariners Moneyline (−126)
  2. Under 8.5 (−120)
  3. Cal Raleigh 2+ Total Bases

Projection: Mariners 4, Padres 3

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Edited by Shubham Soni
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