Padres vs. Pirates: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

Non-division NL rivals square off Friday in the first of a three-game set, as the San Diego Padres hit the road to do battle with the Pittsburgh Pirates in their only regular season series to be held at PNC Park.

San Diego will look to right-hander Dylan Cease to get the series started off on the right foot against an opponent he's had success against in the past. Pittsburgh will counter with Mitch Keller who failed to log a single win through five April starts.

Padres vs. Pirates recent form and records

San Diego

The Friars enter this series fresh off a two-game sweep of the division rival San Francisco Giants to stay within 1.5-games of the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. The pair of wins were much-needed after Tampa Bay went into Petco Park and swept them the series prior.

Mike Schildt's crew has been the league's biggest money-maker, with their 19-11 record producing a $556 return for MLB bettors. While dominant at home (14-4), the Padres sit two-games under .500 on the road and $140 in the red.

Pittsburgh

The Buccos just dropped two of three at home to the Chicago Cubs, moving the club to 4-6 in their last 10 games and losers in two of their last three series. At 12-20, Pittsburgh brings up the rear of the NL Central seven-games out.

With losing records accrued both at home (7-9) and on the road (5-11), Derek Shelton's squad ranks as the fifth-worst bet in baseball, down $642 overall.

Injuries

San Diego

Mason McCoy SS 10 Day IL - Finger
Brandon Lockridge CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Jake Cronenworth 2B 10 Day IL - Rib
Jackson Merrill CF 10 Day IL - Hamstring
Logan Gillaspie RP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Bryan Hoeing RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Sean Reynolds RP 15 Day IL - Foot
Yu Darvish SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Joe Musgrove SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Matt Waldron SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Jhony Brito RP 60 Day IL - Forearm

Pittsburgh

Endy Rodriguez 1B 10 Day IL - Finger
Nick Gonzales 2B 10 Day IL - Ankle
Justin Lawrence RP 15 IL - Elbow
Spencer Horwitz 1B 10 Day IL - Wrist
Tim Mayza RP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Jared Jones SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Johan Oviedo SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Dauri Moreta RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.76 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 36 hits (3 HR) & 19 ER with a 36:12 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 4.1 IP of 6 hit (1 HR) & 2 ER ball with 6:4 K/BB ratio vs. Tampa Bay last start.
1-0 with a 2.31 ERA & 11:1 K/BB ratio in 11.2 career IP thrown vs. the Pirates.
0-1 with a 11.00 ERA and 10:4 K/BB ratio in 9.0 IP on the road in 2025

Mitch Keller (1-2, 3.97 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 33 hits (2 HR) & 15 ER with a 26:11 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 5 hit (0 HR) and 2 ER ball with 6:1 K/BB ratio at LA Dodgers last start.
2-3 with a 5.88 ERA & 18:9 K/BB ratio in 26.0 career IP thrown vs. the Padres.
0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 16:9 K/BB ratio in 22.0 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

San Diego

It doesn't matter if a pitcher is right or left-handed, Luis Arraez finds a way to hit them. Sporting nearly equal slash lines against both hands, the Padres' infielder has been spraying the ball all over the field since coming off the IL.

The lefty is 3-for-7 with a triple and RBIs in both games since getting back onto the field. He's 3-for-9 lifetime against Mitch Keller, and is paying out attractive plus-money returns on his hits and RBI props this evening.

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Pittsburgh

The Pirates have actually done a decent job against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Per FanGraphs, they're slashing .281/.359/.413/.772 with a 116 wRC+ and lead the league with a .345 BABIP during that stretch. Still, it's only resulted in an average of 3.5 runs per game over their last ten.

While right-handed bats have done the most damage against Dylan Cease to date, all three home runs the right-hander has served up have come against lefties. With that, let's hitch our wagon to Oneil Cruz and see if he can end his five-game homerless drought.

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Padres vs. Pirates MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Friday 5/2	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
San Diego Padres	-135	-1.5 +114	O 8 +105
Pittsburgh Pirates	+114	+1.5 -135	U 8 -125

Padres vs. Pirates expert picks and game prediction

Due to Dylan Cease riding the struggle bus over the last month, DraftKings Sportsbook has hung a cheap number on the Padres. San Diego has gotten healthier recently, and positive regression feels imminent.

Given the lineup's past success against Keller, consider backing the Padres on the run-line and over their team total.

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction: San Diego Wins 6-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose