Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 5 picks including Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, and more for May 5, 2025

Baseball’s long ball surge is alive and well this season and tonight's MLB lineup serves up some of the games that scream home run potential. With struggling pitchers, hitter-friendly stadiums and power-hitting bats finding their groove, it's the perfect evening to chase deep flies with value-backed prop bets.

We’ve scouted the numbers, recent trends and individual batter-pitcher histories to lock in the five most promising home run picks for May 6, 2025. Whether it’s Pete Alonso continuing his MVP push or Oneil Cruz flexing his raw power against a vulnerable arm, here are tonight’s top long-ball threats with the odds and stats to back them up.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s 5 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#5 Christian Walker (Houston Astros): +330

Christian Walker could hit a home run today - Source: Imagn

Christian Walker hasn’t caught fire yet this season, hitting just .200/.273/.350 batting line, 4 homers, 9 RBIs and 15 runs through 32 games. However, the underlying metrics show brighter times ahead. Walker holds a healthy 91 mph average exit velocity and a 32% hard-hit rate.

Tonight, he gets a prime get-right opportunity against Brewers' Tobias Myers, who enters with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. At +330, this is a classic high-upside prop play. You’re betting on Walker’s strong contact profile converting into a long ball against an arm struggling with control and contact management.

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#4 Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates): +280

Oneil Cruz has 8 homers this season till now - Source: Imagn

Oneil Cruz continues to display elite two-way value in 2025, slashing .243/.377/.505 with 8 HRs, 18 RBIs, 20 runs and an incredible 14 steals through just 32 games. This evening, he faces Miles Mikolas, who's struggled to a 1-2 mark with a 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 29 innings. With Cruz's excellent contact skills, speed and home run-friendly matchup at Busch Stadium against a pitcher vulnerable to lefties, +280 is excellent value for bettors looking for power and potential tonight.

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#3 Pete Alonso (New York Mets): +290

Pete Alonso could hit a homer today - Source: Imagn

Pete Alonso has had a monumental start to the 2025 season, batting .344/.468/.656 with 8 home runs, 31 RBIs, 25 runs and a 1.124 OPS through 35 games. He won't begrudge having Ryne Nelson on the mound tonight. Nelson is 1-0, 5.82 and 1.18 WHIP. Alonso's personal record off Nelson is great as well. In 9 career plate appearances, he has 4 hits, 3 homers, a .444 average and even a steal. At +290, with premium form, plus matchup metrics and a proven head-to-head record, Alonso stands as one of the cleanest home run prop bets on the slate for tonight.

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#2 Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers): +270

Shohei Ohtani could hit a home run today - Source: Imagn

Shohei Ohtani is heating up fast, now hitting a torrid .400 over his last 8 games with 2 home runs in that span. Overall, he's batting .304/.399/.565 with 8 homers, 22 RBIs and a .964 OPS, placing among the NL's top sluggers. He’ll face Marlins' Sandy Alcantara tonight, who’s been shockingly vulnerable this season at 2-3 with an 8.31 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over 26 IP. The former Cy Young winner has already surrendered 4 home runs in just six starts. Given Ohtani’s recent form, +270 feels like one of the strongest home run values on the board tonight.

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#1 Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners): +230

Cal Raleigh has hammered 12 homers this season till now - Source: Imagn

Cal Raleigh has been a force this season, pacing the league with 12 home runs already. He blasted two homers in Texas last week, including a grand slam, and continues to rake off right-handed pitchers. At +230, this line is one of the prettiest values on the board, with shorter odds than others, but fully justified given his red-hot form and ability to clear the fences in bunches.