England or India - which team is the favorite heading into Day 5 of ENG vs IND 2025 1st Test?

The much-anticipated India-England five-Test series has lived up to its billing in the first four days of the opening Test at Leeds. With both teams looking for a fresh start after a sub-par 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, England skipper Ben Stokes won the toss and elected to field first.

Spurred by centuries from Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, and Rishabh Pant, India posted a formidable 471 in the first innings. England responded in style with a brilliant century from Ollie Pope and a 99 from the talented Harry Brook to amass 465 in their first essay.

The visitors produced another excellent batting performance despite a late collapse to finish their second innings on 364, setting England a target of 371. The two English openers weathered the new-ball storm and propelled the side to 21/0 in six overs at stumps on Day 4.

It sets up for a cracking final day, with England requiring another 350 runs and India needing 10 wickets for early series honors.

On that note, let us look at the key factors that could decide the favorite between India and England heading into the final day.

#1 Recent history of the venue

India should undeniably be the favorites going into Day 5 of the Leeds Test if the overall history of the format is considered. The long and storied history of Test cricket has seen a target of over 370 chased down successfully in the final innings only nine times.

Yet, Team India will be aware that four of the nine instances have come in the last decade when batting skills and depth have gone through the roof. Furthermore, the fourth innings of Leeds should be a bigger cause of concern for Shubman Gill's Men.

Unlike most surfaces around the globe, Headingley has historically become better for batting as the Test match progresses. An incredible statistic shows that the fourth innings batting average at the venue is 52.29, meaning a team would score almost 523 runs if their innings were complete.

For context, the other three innings at Leeds have batting averages of 25.62, 30.52, and 27.96. It is also noteworthy that the last six Tests at the venue have been won by the side fielding first. Apart from two innings victories, the other four have been successful final innings run-chases, with three coming from England. The hosts have also won their last five Tests in Leeds.

Five of the top 40 successful run-chases in Tests have come at this venue, with the highest being Australia's 404 in 1948. More recently, England successfully chased 359 against Australia in 2019, and the West Indies chased 322 against England.

It is fair to say that Headingley would be arguably the first pick among venues worldwide for high fourth-innings run-chases.

Edge: England

#2 Trends for India and England in similar situations

England have been arguably the best chasing team in Tests since Ben Stokes took over as captain in mid-2022. By adopting the ultra-aggressive Bazball approach, England have often fancied big run-chases in the final innings of home Tests over the past three years.

The side has successfully chased down over 250 five times in home Tests since Stokes became captain. Furthermore, two out of the five came in the scene of the ongoing Test - Leeds.

Incidentally, the last time India and England played a Test match in England before the Leeds outing saw the hosts producing their best-ever fourth innings run-chase. Chasing 378 for victory, Stokes' men took only 76.4 overs to complete the task with seven wickets remaining.

Yet, the visitors can take heart from the fact that the above Test was the only time in their history that over 350 was successfully chased against them. As incredible as England's five 250+ run-chases sound, only one was a target above 300.

Edge: India

#3 Advantage based on the happenings of the first four days

History aside, the proceedings from the first four days of the ongoing Leeds Test offer plenty based on the two lineups and the pitch variances. All three innings thus far have seen scores of over 350, lending to the notion of the surface being batter-friendly.

While some rough patches have developed outside the left-hander's off-stump that Ravindra Jadeja might potentially exploit, the bowlers have nothing much to write home about in terms of assistance from the pitch. Furthermore, it is safe to say that India are a one-man show, with Jasprit Bumrah carrying an inconsistent bowling attack on his broad shoulders.

The ace pacer finished with incredible figures of 5/83 in the first innings, while the others combined for 5/365 at alarmingly high economy rates. Meanwhile, England's strong suit has been their batting, especially in home conditions, over the past few years.

Thus, the hosts' strong suit going up against India's weaker link on a mostly batting-friendly surface makes for another potential record run-chase on Day 5. Yet, for chasing a target as high as 371, almost everything must go perfectly for England, and they can ill-afford Bumrah producing another masterclass.

Edge: Tie

Verdict

The first India-England could be an instant classic, with both sides entering the final day on equal footing. While the hosts' recent successes in run-chases at home could enhance their belief of pulling off something similar, the history of Test cricket works against them.

The contest could ultimately come down to how the Indian bowlers, excluding Bumrah, perform and how much the English batters can neutralize Bumrah.

As we wait for both these cases to unfold in the first session, a wise bet would be to go with historical data and deem the visitors the slight favorite heading into Day 5.

Favorites: India