World Cup 2019: Qualification scenarios for the remaining two semi-final spots

We are currently in the last round of league matches of the 12th edition of ICC Cricket World Cup. Though the new format attracted several criticisms before the start of the tournament, all the criticisms were laid down to rest once the tournament progressed.

Besides, the frequent rain interruptions at the earlier stages of the tournament lead to several abandoned games. As a result, the race to the semi-finals used to get very intense at the end of every single match.

Australia, the defending champions, became the first team to qualify for the semi-finals. With seven wins in eight games, Australia currently sit at the top of the points table.

After a victory against Bangladesh in yesterday’s encounter, India became the second team to qualify for the semi-finals. With just a single point separating India (13) and Australia (14), the table-topper will be decided in this final round.

Among the remaining teams, Afghanistan, South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh were already eliminated from the semi-finals race. Hence, we are down to three teams (New Zealand, England, and Pakistan) for the remaining two semi-final spots.

Now, let us look at the qualification scenario for those three teams.

Note: Number of wins is the first tie-breaker in this World Cup. If the teams are with equal number of points and wins, then Net Run Rate (NRR) will be considered.

#1 New Zealand (11 points)

A win against England in their final league match will seal the semi-final spot for New Zealand. However, they can reach the semis even if they lose to England. In that case, Pakistan must lose their match against Bangladesh. As a result, New Zealand will go through with 11 points.

In the worst-case scenario, Pakistan and New Zealand can be levelled on 11 points if Pakistan wins their final league match. In this scenario, NRR factor will declare the qualifying team as both teams will have equal number of wins.

#2 England (10 points)

The host nation must defeat New Zealand in their final league match to ensure smooth sailing to the semis.

If England fail to win against New Zealand, then Bangladesh must win against Pakistan. In this case, England will go through with just 10 points.

#3 Pakistan (9 points)

Unlike the other teams, Pakistan’s qualification scenario is slightly complicated. First, Pakistan must primarily win their final league match against Bangladesh.

Next, they must pray for England to lose against New Zealand. If England wins their match, then Pakistan and New Zealand will be levelled on 11 points. In this case, the qualifying team will be declared based on NRR since both teams will have equal number of wins.

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