2025 F1 Mexican GP: Race Predictions

The grid for the 2025 F1 Mexican GP has been set, and we have Lando Norris on pole position with the Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton behind him. The McLaren driver put together a sensational lap, and no other driver was close enough to him.

Considering where the championship is at this point and where both Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri are on the grid, this could not have come at a better point. With that being said, if you want to take a look at what the starting grid is going to be, click here.

The races in the F1 Mexican GP have not been the most action-packed in the past. So, what can we expect from the latest iteration? Let's take a look.

#5 The start could potentially decide the race

The F1 Mexican GP has had a major issue with tires that are too hard and don't degrade much. As a result, the one stopper has become a norm on the track. You add the thin air, which weakens the impact of the DRS, and you have a scenario where overtaking requires a massive pace differential.

The bunched-up grid right now means that we don't have that differential in place. And as a result, it won't come as a surprise that the positions drivers find themselves in after the first lap are where they ultimately finish the race as well.

#4 Tire management could potentially be a factor

It should be a single-stop race. What we have seen for now is that even the soft tires have been durable enough for multiple runs and can eke out a decent stint length. At the same time, it is still a soft tire. The medium tires, according to Pirelli, can run the entire race, such is the longevity and the performance of that tire.

With that being said, there's going to be a trade-off between going with a soft or a hard tire for either stint, and that call might prove to be crucial for many teams here.

#3 A Max Verstappen podium is possible, but not a guarantee

A P5 start means Max Verstappen can maybe make up a couple of places at the start. At the same time, this is not a guarantee whatsoever because the drivers around him have nothing to lose, while he does. Verstappen can afford to be aggressive with the likes of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, but he cannot do so with George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, and Kimi Antonelli around him.

The Red Bull didn't have the best race pace on the grid in practice, but the car should be competitive against the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes. Could a podium be on the table at the F1 Mexican GP? Yes. But it's not a given for sure, as the driver starts the race right in the middle of traffic.

#2 A Lewis Hamilton podium is on the table

Lewis Hamilton broke the record for the most races for Ferrari without a podium in Austin. This is his 20th race with the team, and it is a shocker of a stat that the driver is yet to secure a podium for the team.

Well, he starts the F1 Mexican GP in what is arguably the best position to start the race from. If he ends up in the lead as well, it won't be a surprise, as has often been the case around this track.

With that being said, looking at the pace that the Ferrari has shown and that Hamilton has had as well. This is the perfect opportunity to break the podium here.

#1 Lando Norris wins the F1 Mexican GP

While we're picking Lando Norris to win the F1 Mexican GP, we're not confident. The McLaren driver has shown throughout the weekend that when it comes to performance around this track, he has no parallel.

There are, however, a couple of issues. The first is that he's starting the race from pole position on a track where we have only a 40% pole-to-conversion rate. Then, we have tires that won't show much degradation, and that makes the start all the more important.

With that being said, the pace shown by the British driver has certainly been quite impressive. Even if he loses the lead at the start of the race, he might still be the favorite to win the F1 Mexican GP.