F1 Driver Market: Predicting who fits where in the 2023 grid

The 2022 F1 silly season has been a bit of a shocker. Sebastian Vettel's retirement was followed by Fernando Alonso's move to Aston Martin, taking everyone by surprise, along with the McLaren coup to snatch Oscar Piastri.

There are only six races left this season and in the driver market, we still have five spots left to fill. So, who fits where for the 2023 F1 season? Let's put our F1 analyst hats on and predict how the five remaining slots will get filled for the 2023 F1 season.

Which F1 seats are not confirmed yet?

For now, this is the status of the driver lineup for the 2023 F1 season. (TBD=To be decided)

Mercedes: George Russell/Lewis Hamilton
Red Bull: Max Verstappen/Sergio Perez
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc/Carlos Sainz
McLaren: Lando Norris/Oscar Piastri
Alpine: Esteban Ocon/TBD
Alfa Romeo: Valterri Bottas/TBD
AlphaTauri: Pierre Gasly (Uncertain)/Yuki Tsunoda
Haas: Kevin Magnussen/TBD
Williams: Alex Albon/TBD
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso/Lance Stroll

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Matchmaking the F1 driver and the team

AlphaTauri

Drivers in contention

While Pierre Gasly has a contract for the 2023 F1 season, the team is looking for a replacement while the French driver is looking to make a move to Alpine. The process has not been smooth with Colton Herta (a possible candidate) getting snubbed by the FIA. Red Bull would also not want to block Gasly's move to a different team. Meanwhile, there have been reports of Nyck De Vries approaching Helmut Marko as well.

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A lack of viable options, however, could force the team into holding on to the French driver for another season.

Most Likely Candidate

As for de Vries, one has to question if the 28-year-old fits the criteria of being an AlphaTauri driver? In all fairness, he doesn't. He doesn't seem like either a Red Bull driver in the future or an able replacement for Gasly either.

While Red Bull is fishing for options at AlphaTauri, none of them appear to be better than Gasly and hence we don't expect any change in the line-up for the team. Pierre Gasly (begrudgingly so) will continue to be part of AlphaTauri for the next F1 season alongside Yuki Tsunoda.

Alpine

Drivers in contention

Well, when we talk about Alpine, who isn't in contention for that seat? Otmar Szafnaeur had initially said that around 14 drivers were on the shortlist, with quite a few names thrown around.

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The list appears to include names like Pierre Gasly, Nyck De Vries, Jack Doohan, Daniel Ricciardo (maybe?), Mick Schumacher, Nico Hulkenberg, and Antonio Giovinazzi. Even Sebastian Vettel's name was thrown in the mix, but the German going to Alpine does not seem likely.

Most Likely Candidate

If Alpine could have its way, it would go with Pierre Gasly. He's French, he's fast, and he's a proven entity. For Gasly to go to Alpine, Red Bull needs to find his replacement as well. As we earlier established, that does not look probable.

The team's reticence in going for Daniel Ricciardo leaves Alpine with two paths. One of them is a conservative one where a stop-gap arrangement is placed in the second car for a season as Jack Doohan matures in F2. In the second, the team takes a punt on talent and throws Doohan in the deep end.

Doohan has been impressive in his rookie F2 season. Although not as polished as Oscar Piastri, the Australian has shown strong one-lap speed. Otmar Szafnaeur is notorious for giving youngsters a shot when he was with Force India. Expect him to take a punt and give Doohan the second seat at Alpine.

Alfa Romeo

Drivers in contention

There has not been much chatter when it comes to the driver lineup at Alfa Romeo. Valtteri Bottas is already secured, and Guanyu Zhou has done a good job.

Looking at options, Theo Pourchaire, the Alfa Romeo academy driver, will most likely finish runners-up in the F2 championship this season. There's Daniel Ricciardo as well still trying to figure out life after McLaren.

Then there's Mick Schumacher, an interesting prospect and someone that beat Zhou in the junior categories.

Most Likely Candidate

For now, if rumors are to be believed, Guanyu Zhou appears to be the frontrunner to continue for the next season. Having said that, no one can blame Sauber for being creative if it went with Daniel Ricciardo or Mick Schumacher.

Haas

Drivers in contention

Kevin Magnussen has a contract for the 2023 F1 season, while the team is not interested in continuing with Mick Schumacher. Guenther Steiner has conceded that the team is keeping a close eye on Schumacher alongside other options.

Names like Nico Hulkenberg and Antonio Giovinazzi have been thrown around as the German's replacement. Daniel Ricciardo is also an outsider in all of this.

Most Likely Candidate

If Haas goes ahead based on performance, then Mick Schumacher will get the seat for the 2023 F1 season. There are, however, other factors at play. Ferrari's influence is one of them as the young German is no longer part of the team's academy.

Steiner has always had an affinity towards Nico Hulkenberg as a driver. When it comes down to it, if performance is the key metric (like it should be), then Mick Schumacher gets the seat. If Ferrari's influence comes into play, we could even be looking at Antonio Giovinazzi driving for the team.

Our pick? Mick Schumacher will be driving for Haas in the 2023 F1 season.

Williams

Drivers in contention

Nicholas Latifi's departure from the team has certainly opened things up. Possible candidates that could replace him include Nyck De Vries, Mick Schumacher, and Logan Sargeant.

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Sargeant is an interesting prospect. The driver has shown flashes of brilliance but has lacked consistency in his rookie F2 season. Mick Schumacher is another interesting choice for the team while Nyck De Vries proved himself with a sensational F1 debut at Monza. Daniel Ricciardo could be an option if the Australian is desperate to stay on the F1 grid.

Most Likely Candidate

We have Mick Schumacher staying at Haas for the 2023 F1 season. Daniel Ricciardo is not a viable option for Williams. This leaves us with Nyck de Vries and Logan Sargeant. While Sargeant would be a breath of fresh air for the team and an interesting prospect, de Vries comes from the Mercedes family.

The German team supplies power units to Williams and is going to have some pull. To add to that, de Vries was sensational in Monza and scored points for the team. While Sargeant is still a wildcard, de Vries will be a solid contributor and should be considered the frontrunner to partner Alex Albon for the 2023 F1 season.

What is Daniel Ricciardo's future in F1?

It's slightly surprising that none of the teams are clamoring to sign the Australian. Just two years ago, Ricciardo finished the season fifth in the championship standings.

The possible options for Ricciardo include Alpine, Haas, Alfa Romeo, and Williams. Haas has not shown any interest, Alfa Romeo has not even been part of the discussion, and Williams is not a viable option for the Australian.

This leaves Ricciardo with Alpine. After all the talk of 'loyalty' by the team this season, that looks unlikely as well. The driver decided to leave Renault after just two seasons with the team in 2019-20. After such a vote of no-confidence in the past, it's unlikely that Alpine would be looking to associate with the driver.

Sadly for the Australian, unless there is a change of heart in any of these teams, the reserve driver role at Mercedes looks like the best option for now.