How likely is it for Liverpool to win the Premier League?
Premier League is having its most exciting season in years. After 31 weeks of games, Liverpool and Manchester City are the two closest leaders at this stage since the 2013/14 season. Liverpool fans are hoping to finally win their first league title in almost 30 years, while Manchester City supporters are eying for the treble. However, which of these two teams are more likely to become Premier League champions?
Currently, Liverpool is leading City by two points with the latter having a game in hand. In the case where both teams win all their remaining games, the Citizens may lift the trophy for the second season in a row.
Games both sides should be winning
Manchester City will face two teams in the relegation zone [written before the Fulham game] and three other teams that are at the bottom half of the table. Manchester City has a more flawed record against bottom half teams, losing to the likes of Crystal Palace and Newcastle. Therefore, it would not be surprising for them to draw at least once in these five matches, knowing four of those are away from home.
Liverpool's schedule is very similar, as they need to play four sides at the bottom half, two of which are in the relegation zone. The Reds have lost only two points of the possible 48 against the bottom half teams so it is very realistic to expect the Reds getting all 12 points in the mentioned four games.
While those are games that the leaders should be getting maximum points from, both will need to play three difficult matches against sides at the top half of the table.
Games against the top half
Relatively, the easiest game for Manchester City should be against Leicester City at the Etihad Stadium. As the match will be the penultimate of Premier League season, as Leicester realistically won't have anything left to fight for, it should be expected for the Manchester team to get the win. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the first fixture went in the Foxes' favour.
Manchester City's game against Tottenham Hotspur is much more difficult to predict, as they will play in the Premier League only three days after their second duel in the Champions League quarter-final. It is expected that City will take their Champions League matches more seriously than the league, which could realistically result in a draw in the league game.
Only four days later, Manchester City will have their derby game against United away from home. City has had great success at Old Trafford, suffering their last Premier League loss there in 2015. Therefore, Ole Gunnar Solskjær's United will need to step their game up should they expect a victory.
While Liverpool's weakest top half opponent, Wolverhampton Wanderers, is only three points above Leicester, the side has shown good performances against the top six sides, losing only three of the nine games. Liverpool won their first Premier League duel away, but lost in the FA Cup. Regardless of that defeat, the leaders' fans should expect a win as the game will happen at Anfield on the last match day of the season.
Additionally, Liverpool will have to play both Spurs and Chelsea at home. The game between Liverpool and Spurs will be played on the 31st of March. Momentum is on Liverpool's side, as they were victorious in their previous three Premier League home games, while Spurs have lost their last three away matches. Moreover, Liverpool haven't lost to Tottenham at home since 2011.
Then, there is the Liverpool and Chelsea match, which happens in the middle of the Reds' Champions League quarter-finals games. In contrary to City, Liverpool most likely values the Premier League more. If last year repeats itself, their CL tie against Porto could already be over after the first leg. Looking at the previous games of Chelsea and Liverpool, it can be seen that both teams are very equal, with the last seven ending in either a draw or a one-goal win. As a fair reminder, Chelsea themselves are fighting against Arsenal and Manchester United for a Champions League spot, so do expect a full-on performance.
Which club is most likely to win?
If we go through all the possible outcomes mentioned in this article, Liverpool will win the title by a point (95 points) against Manchester City. The similar schedules between these two clubs will only make it harder to predict the winner, with a possibility of the title being won only on the last week of the season.