Six factors that will decide the Madrid derby

Not so long ago, Madrid derbies used to signify one-way traffic, with Real Madrid overpowering their neighbours in every single game. Derbies were like a three-point takeaway for the Los Blancos. So much so that Madridistas held a banner which read: “Wanted: a worthy rival for a decent derby.”And that was the jinx. It must have been the perfect insult to get Atleti’s blood boiling and become the worthy rival and serve up more than a decent derby. The tide has now turned so much that it won’t be surprising if we see the same kind of banner on Saturday – the only difference being this time the Atleti fans will be holding it up.From the most one-sided derby to the most vicious derby in Europe’s top five leagues – the Madrid derby is brutal, entertaining and as compact as it can get. Diego Simeone has totally changed the fate of this encounter – he is the only Atletico manager in this century to have won against Real Madrid. There is no manager in the world who has inflicted his own nature on the club he manages better than the Argentine. The Rojiblancos are exactly like he was as a player: tough and ruthlessly determined. His all-guns-blazing approach has, thus far, gotten the better of Carlo Ancelotti’s calm and composed approach.While these two will face off against each other tomorrow, here we look at the 5 factors that could decide the Madrid derby:

#1 Officiating

Carlo Ancelotti of Real Madrid argues with referee David Fernandez Borbalan duringthe La Liga match between Real Madrid and RCD Espanyol on January 10

Starting with the controversial aspect of the game. Atletico Madrid are known for a very rough-and-tough approach towards the game. They will harass their opponents and pressurize them till death. Hard and no-holds-barred tackles are their trademark. It is Atletico physicality, mixed with superb efficiency, that have helped them prevail over their archrivals on previous occasions. And this is why the referee becomes the important factor of the game.

The referee for the game will be David Fernandez Borbalan. There will be a lot of pressure on the Spaniard as Madrid derbies are fiery encounters where the referee has to be on his toes.

If Borbalan lets the game flow without calling many fouls, then it will be very advantageous for Simeone’s men. If, however, the referee chooses to protect the players more, the game will be very slow-paced with many intervals and a bit more beneficial to the away side.

#2 Raul Garcia

Raul Garcia might not the most talented player in the world, but he is definitely the best player in the world at what he does. There is not a single forward that can do the defensive work that the Spaniard does deep in the opposition’s area.

There is a saying in Football that the first line of defence is the forward. In most cases, this is just a saying, but not when the forward is Raul Garcia. His unreal work-rate makes him Atleti’s most important player, in a strict tactical sense, against Real Madrid. His job is to relentlessly press the defence and the holding midfielder and take the life-breaths out of them.

Last season, Xabi Alonso found it very hard to deal with him and this season the same happened with Toni Kroos in the previous encounter. In simple terms, Raul Garcia’s job is to stop the focal point – the supplier – of the opponent team from spraying possession and influencing the play, hence choking their very playing style.

Anyone with a little knowledge on the game knows that the deepest midfielder of the team is the base of all the attacking movements in a team. One of the very first instructions a manager gives his players is to not give the deepest midfielder any time or space – and a player like Raul Garcia is a manager’s delight because he is the best at that.

If Raul Garcia has a good game and succeeds at stopping Toni Kroos, the only thing remaining for Atletico Madrid to win the game is to score. And Raul Garcia can do that, too.

#3 Karim Benzema

Make no mistake here; if Raul Garcia is the most important forward for his defensive work, Karim Benzema is the most important forward for his playmaking abilities at the heart of the attack. It is no coincidence that his best time in the White Shirt was parallel to Madrid’s best ever run of 22 straight wins.

When the Frenchman has a good game, Real Madrid’s attacks flow as smoothly as melting butter on a frying pan. His record against Atletico Madrid, however, is very poor: 2 goals in 17 appearances (another reason for Madrid’s recent decline against Atleti). Goals don’t define the former Lyon man, but it’s not only the goals, his performances against them in general have also been a subject to a lot of criticism.

Diego Simeone knows the importance of the number 9 and hence sets his defenders in such a way that Benzema isn’t allowed to play his natural pass-and-move game. Quick and harsh tackles are a very common sight against him (or any other player, for that matter).

Benzema is a very classy player, but generally struggles against physical teams. In almost every big game, he has played well – be it against Barca or Bayern, but he leaves a lot to be desired against Madrid’s bitter rivals.

The player that benefits the most from his selfless style of play is Cristiano Ronaldo – Real Madrid’s best scorer. Benzema’s withdrawn off-the-ball movements – and his ability to play the killer-ball in spaces – leave a lot of gaps for the Portuguese to exploit. It is no coincidence that the France number 10 is the player to have played the most assists to the current Ballon d’or holder.

In short, if Benzema has a good game, it is almost guaranteed that Cristiano Ronaldo will have a good game and if the latter has a good game, goals become guaranteed. And, stating the obvious here, goals win you games.

#4 Midfield Battle

Atletico Madrid’s Gabi and Real Madrid’s Isco

It will be hard to find a set of midfielders that is as contrasting to each other as Atleti’s and Real’s. The respective midfields of the Whites and Red-Whites are the perfect definition of beauty and the beast.

While Real Madrid’s midfield is full of creative guile, their sisters’ one is the antithesis, but equally effective, of it. With James Rodriguez and Luka Modric out, Real are most likely to field a midfield of Sami Khedira or Illarramendi, Toni Kroos and Isco – this midfield definitely lacks the muscle which Atleti’s midfield duo/trio of Tiago, Gabi and Raul Garcia (who can be considered the third midfielder) have. The latter, however, don’t have the creativity of the former.

If the last few derbies are anything to go by, the beast has prevailed over the beauty thus far.

Against a midfield like that of Atletico, a real ‘bad-ass’ character is needed to counteract it. An in-form Sami Khedira could have been that man. He, however, looks more concerned about leaving the Club in the summer rather than trying to stamp his authority in the starting XI.

Asier Illarramendi is a very clever player when it comes to winning back possession, but it is unlikely that Ancelotti would entrust him with such a job against a brute force like Atletico. Lucas Silva is also a great ball-winner, but the chance of getting a debut in such a big game is lesser than even Illarramendi’s chances of playing.

Ian Holloway once said in response of playing too many defensive players in midfield, “It’s all very well having a great pianist playing, but it is no good if you haven’t got anyone to get the piano on the stage in the first place – otherwise the pianist would be standing there with no bloody piano to play.”

Real Madrid have too many pianists and Atletico have too many piano-bringers. And in the last few derbies, it has been exactly the way Holloway quipped – Real Madrid’s pianists were standing there with no bloody piano to play with; whereas with so many piano-bringers, Atleti’s fewer pianists have played the winning note on many occasions because they had the pianos available for playing.

In a way, James’s injury could be good for Real Madrid as he surely would have started if he was fit, making the midfield too weak in terms of physicality. The presence of either Khedira or Illarramendi would make the midfield more balanced and more compatible to face Atleti. However, for now, this looks like another beauty vs beast encounter in which the latter looks more likely to oppress the former.

#5 Nacho-Varane centre-back pairing

Real Madrid’s Raphael Varane tackling for the ball

This might sound a bit ridiculous to some, but the centre-half pairing of Nacho and Varane is the most composed the Club have. While many know the qualities of Varane and that he is a world-class talent, Nacho is not that far behind.

Real Madrid’s most underrated player, Nacho oozes class whenever – and wherever – he is played. Be it at right, left of center back – he always puts in exceptional performances. He is just as calm as Raphael Varane and doesn’t let blood rush to his brain.

There is no doubt that Nacho is the best 4th choice centre-back in the world. Pepe and Sergio Ramos are susceptible to losing their heads – though it looks like the former’s hot-head days are past him – against an aggressive team like Atleti.

Fight fire with fire, so say Metallica and their fans – but there is a more safe-proof way to fight fire: extinguish it with water. As both Pepe and Ramos are injured, the centre-back pairing of Nacho and Varane is exactly that cool water that could extinguish the fire from Atleti’s wrath.

#6 \'Cojones\'

Last, but certainly not the least – ‘cojones,’ – it means balls in Spanish. Derbies aren’t decided merely by Football terms or skills. There is more to it than that – a lot of passion and zeal are involved. The team that shows the most cojones – not in a literal sense – succeeds at winning.

The pleasure one gets at getting one over their rivals is second to none – especially for players that were brought up from the academy. In this sense, Real Madrid lag behind Atletico Madrid. However, with injuries hampering the Whites, we might see an entire back five consisting of players who have been at Real since their teens or even earlier.

Sometimes, and most of the times in derbies, it is how you play from the heart that matters and not the head. Certainly, tomorrow’s game will be dominated by the team that has the biggest pair of ‘cojones.’