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Next weekend sees a big UFC middleweight title rematch between champion Alex Pereira and former titleholder Israel Adesanya in what promises to be one of 2023’s biggest bouts.
Israel Adesanya suffered a stunning loss at the hands of Alex Pereira in their prior meeting last November. Can ‘The Last Stylebender’ take revenge next weekend?
It definitely won’t be easy for the former champion, but if anyone can do it, Adesanya can. If he pulls it off, his legacy will grow substantially.
Here are five reasons why Israel Adesanya can take revenge on Alex Pereira at UFC 287.
#5. Israel Adesanya needs smaller tweaks to his gameplan to win this fight
When they faced off in the octagon for the first time last November, nobody was really sure how the fight between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira would go.
In the end, the bout fell largely in the favour of Adesanya, who was beating Pereira in basically every area until the fifth round.
That fateful stanza saw ‘Poatan’ uncork some huge punches to ‘The Last Stylebender’, forcing the referee to step in with just under three minutes of the fight to go.
It’s natural that, coming into their rematch next weekend, Pereira’s punching power might be inside Adesanya’s head. After all, nobody had even come close to knocking out ‘The Last Stylebender’ prior to UFC 281.
The truth, however, is that Adesanya needs to make smaller tweaks to his gameplan than Pereira does to win this fight.
Essentially, if ‘The Last Stylebender’ can avoid Pereira’s power punches like the plague, keep his distance and pick at him with strikes – while also mixing in takedowns – then he can win this fight.
Thanks to his defensive skills, it should be easier for him to avoid the big shot than it should be for Pereira to land it – making Adesanya the favorite to win.
#4. Israel Adesanya now knows Alex Pereira’s weaknesses in MMA
Prior to his fight with Israel Adesanya at UFC 281 last November, the big question surrounding Alex Pereira was how well-rounded his overall game would be in MMA.
Everyone was well aware of his deadly striking credentials from his kickboxing career, and for the most part, they were all he’d needed to use to succeed in the UFC.
Against Adesanya, though, Pereira was exposed even if he did come away with the biggest win of his career as well as the UFC middleweight title.
‘Poatan’ couldn’t quite get to grips with the movement of Adesanya on the feet – only landing his killer combination after ‘The Last Stylebender’ stumbled following a checked leg kick.
More importantly, when Adesanya decided to go to the mat in the third round, Pereira looked like a fish out of water. Better grapplers than Adesanya may well have finished him in that stanza, in fact.
With that considered, coming into this second bout, Adesanya clearly now knows Pereira’s weaknesses in the octagon.
Therefore, it’s highly likely that he’s been drilling his takedowns and his ground game, and will probably avoid throwing too many low kicks to prevent him being caught off balance.
Pereira has likely been training plenty of grappling too – and has been awarded his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt since the November bout.
However, it still seems likely that he might struggle if Adesanya can put him in a bad position, and ‘The Last Stylebender’ may well look to do that, giving him an edge.
#3. Alex Pereira’s big weight cut may affect him adversely
It’s a largely accepted fact in the world of the UFC that if a fighter makes too many huge weight cuts, they eventually catch up with them.
Sometimes, fighters can become more vulnerable to strikes due to the amount of water they’ve cut leading into a bout. At times, their cardio is affected. We’ve seen numerous top fighters, from Deiveson Figueiredo to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, blame a bad weight cut for a defeat before.
With that considered, could it be argued that Alex Pereira is simply cutting too much weight to make the 185lbs middleweight limit?
‘Poatan’ has never outright missed weight before, admittedly, but he certainly makes a big cut to hit the mark.
Last August, it was reported that he was weighing around 232lbs as he began his training camp for his bout with Israel Adesanya. After hitting the 185lbs mark at the weigh-in, he reportedly gained 25lbs before fight time.
Remarkably, Pereira’s coach Glover Teixeira has recently even teased a move to heavyweight for ‘Poatan’, giving an idea of just how big he is.
Given that ‘Poatan’ clearly found it hard to make weight last time around, there’s no telling whether his big weight cut could affect him in this rematch. If he’s at all slower, or less durable, then Adesanya could take advantage – allowing him to gain revenge over the Brazilian.
#2. All of the pressure is on Alex Pereira this time around
Prior to Israel Adesanya’s fight with Alex Pereira at UFC 281, it’s probably fair to say that all of the pressure was on ‘The Last Stylebender’.
Not only did nobody really expect Pereira to win thanks to his lack of MMA experience, but Adesanya was a proven UFC headliner. He’d never lost at 185lbs in the octagon, and it felt like he’d requested the fight to be able to avenge his losses to ‘Poatan’ in kickboxing.
Essentially, Pereira flew under the radar, so to speak, and ended up pulling off a huge upset win.
This time around, though, it feels like the boot is on the other foot.
Many observers are now happy to label Pereira as kryptonite for Adesanya, thanks to his three victories over him. More than that, some have even spoken about ‘Poatan’ making a run at 205lbs and believe that he could pose a threat to current light-heavyweight champ Jamahal Hill.
Few fans expect Pereira to win this rematch easily, but it could be argued that he’ll come in as the favorite.
So with that considered, this is probably the first time since his title bout with Robert Whittaker that Adesanya won’t have the weight of the world on his shoulders.
‘The Last Stylebender’ has always performed well in the spotlight, but this time around, the lack of pressure on him might well mean that he performs better than ever before.
#1. Israel Adesanya was winning their last fight before he was stopped
Perhaps the biggest reason to favor Israel Adesanya to come out on top in his upcoming rematch with Alex Pereira is the fact that he was winning their previous bout before he was knocked out.
This wasn’t a case where Adesanya was narrowly ahead in the first round before he was stopped. ‘The Last Stylebender’ largely dominated his Brazilian foe for the first four rounds before ‘Poatan’ pulled off his big finish in the fifth.
He even hurt him badly with strikes in the dying seconds of the opening round, something which seems to have been largely forgotten since.
Essentially, had Adesanya not stumbled after checking a leg kick, it’s likely he’d have won the fifth round of that fight too – meaning this rematch would not be happening.
With that considered, what reason is there really to favor Pereira here? Sure, he has three wins over Adesanya, but none of them were true whitewashes, bringing into question whether he really is kryptonite to ‘The Last Stylebender’.
The bottom line is that if Adesanya can avoid eating the big shot from Pereira – and he nearly did last time around – then this fight is definitely winnable for him. In fact, he should probably come in with plenty of confidence despite his loss.
