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At UFC 287 on April 8, Jorge Masvidal faces one of the biggest challenges of his MMA career when he takes on former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns.
It’s safe to say that Masvidal has his back against the wall in his fight with Burns, and frankly, he cannot afford to lose.
‘Gamebred’ remains one of the UFC’s most bankable stars, but in the world of MMA, fortunes can change in a heartbeat, meaning that the Miami fan-favorite is in a must-win situation this weekend.
Here are five reasons why Jorge Masvidal cannot afford to lose to Gilbert Burns at UFC 287.
#5. A loss to Gilbert Burns would put Jorge Masvidal on a four-fight losing streak dating back to 2020
While Jorge Masvidal’s image and persona have definitely contributed to his rise as a star in the UFC, it’s safe to say that his popularity also rose due to his run of wins in 2019.
‘Gamebred’ took out Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz that year, two of them in highlight-reel fashion, which made him the hottest welterweight on the UFC’s roster.
However, we’re now in 2023, and Masvidal’s win over Diaz, which came back in November 2019, remains the most recent on his ledger.
Since then, he’s lost to Kamaru Usman twice and Colby Covington once, and has not fought since his defeat to ‘Chaos’ last spring.
It is true that some fighters reach a level of stardom where wins and losses don’t matter all that much, but for any fighter to remain afloat in the UFC, they can’t lose too many times.
If Masvidal were to fall to Gilbert Burns this weekend, he’d have four losses in a row and no victories since 2019.
That’s a very long time in the world of MMA, and it would run the risk of making ‘Gamebred’ essentially irrelevant, a position that would be tricky for even a huge star like him.
#4. A loss to Gilbert Burns could give other fighters a blueprint to defeat Jorge Masvidal
It sounds strange but the worst thing that could happen to Jorge Masvidal in his bout with Gilbert Burns would be to suffer a stifling decision loss.
That kind of defeat wouldn’t be as hard to take as a highlight-reel knockout, nor would it cost ‘Gamebred’ as many brain cells. However, it would mean that three of his last four losses would have come in the same fashion.
Both Kamaru Usman – in his first fight with Masvidal – and Colby Covington used a game plan that involved a lot of clinching and takedown attempts, usually against the fence.
While neither man was able to do too much damage to ‘Gamebred’, they were able to thoroughly nullify his dangerous striking offense, which led them to take clear-cut decisions on the judges’ scorecards.
Burns isn’t as good a wrestler as either Usman or Covington, but he’s arguably more skilled than both on the ground, meaning that if he can get Masvidal down, he should be able to control him equally well.
More to the point, he used a very similar game plan to stifle Stephen Thompson in their bout in 2021.
If ‘Durinho’ can win this way, then it’d probably give any grappling-based fighter at welterweight a clear-cut blueprint to beat Masvidal. Why would anyone want to risk striking with him if they can stifle him against the fence?
If that’s the case, then it’d be hard not to favor lower-rated fighters like Sean Brady and Michael Chiesa to beat ‘Gamebred’, and that could signal the end of his run at the top of the division.
#3. Jorge Masvidal would lose out on a big-money fight with Leon Edwards if he is defeated by Gilbert Burns
One thing that must be in the back of Jorge Masvidal’s mind coming into his bout with Gilbert Burns is the possibility of a major fight with current UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards.
‘Gamebred’ and ‘Rocky’ have a well-known rivalry dating back to 2019, when Masvidal sucker-punched Edwards backstage after a UFC event in London.
Masvidal famously then claimed that he’d served Edwards with a “three-piece and a soda," with all signs indicating towards a future fight between the two in the octagon.
Four years later, though, that fight has not happened.
Edwards, who now holds the welterweight crown after defeating Kamaru Usman twice, has always suggested that a clash with Masvidal could be a big-money fight for him, especially with the title on the line.
Given that Masvidal has not won since 2019, a title fight between the two would simply not work right now. If ‘Gamebred’ could defeat Gilbert Burns, though, that might change.
‘Rocky’ has shown no interest in a potential title bout with Colby Covington, and while Dana White has seemed more keen, if Masvidal were in a position to take the shot, then the UFC president might change his tune.
A loss to ‘Durinho’, though, would put Masvidal so far out of title contention that a fight with Edwards would be simply impossible.
Therefore, losing to Burns would cost Masvidal a lot of potential money – meaning that he simply cannot afford to take a defeat this coming weekend.
#2. At the age of 38, Jorge Masvidal’s window of opportunity might not last much longer
While there has been the odd exception to the rule, for the most part, fighters don’t do well in the UFC once they get close to 40 years old.
Put simply, a fighter’s physical peak tends to come anywhere between the ages of 25 and 35. In the lighter weight classes in particular, the closer a fighter gets to 40, the slower and less effective they become.
For Jorge Masvidal, then, this has to be worrying. ‘Gamebred’ might’ve risen to superstardom in 2019, just four years ago, but he’s actually been around for much longer.
His UFC career began in 2013, a decade ago now, and his first professional fight came way back in 2003. In November, ‘Gamebred’ will turn 39 years old.
Therefore, it’s likely that Masvidal’s window of opportunity, both in terms of a potential title challenge and in terms of taking big fights, might be beginning to close.
A win over Gilbert Burns this weekend would keep that window open for a little longer at least. But if he loses, then that window could well slam shut much earlier than he expects.
Essentially, Masvidal is probably fighting on borrowed time right now, and if he wants to borrow any more, then he needs to find a way to defeat ‘Durinho’ in Miami.
#1. Jorge Masvidal’s image cannot afford to take another defeat
While Jorge Masvidal’s wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz definitely helped transform him into a star, it’s arguable that his image change was the thing that really drew the fans towards him.
Prior to 2019, ‘Gamebred’ felt like another cookie-cutter UFC fighter. After growing his hair out and labeling himself ‘Street Jesus’, though, Masvidal immediately marked himself out from the crowd.
Since then, the Cuban-American has essentially cultivated an image that seems closer to a high-ranking member of a drug cartel than a professional fighter.
To many fans, Masvidal is MMA’s version of Scarface, the UFC’s 'baddest motherf*cker'.
However, while that image worked well while ‘Gamebred’ was winning fights, it doesn’t work so well when he’s losing.
After all, how can any fighter claim to be the UFC’s ‘BMF’ when he isn’t actually beating opponents up inside the octagon?
Many fans wouldn't have counted Masvidal’s losses to Kamaru Usman against him, as ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ was seen as the promotion’s pound-for-pound king at the time.
His loss to Colby Covington, however, was harder to swallow, and if he loses to Gilbert Burns, then it’d be difficult to take his image all that seriously.
Put simply, that’s something that Masvidal cannot afford to let happen, as it’ll shatter his whole persona and bring everything around him into question. Therefore, he absolutely must win this fight at UFC 287.
