UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

The UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend for another Fight Night event. On paper, at least, there could be some exciting fights on tap.

UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira features a high-level bantamweight main event, as well as a number of other intriguing bouts in various divisions. There aren’t overly high stakes here admittedly, but for the most part, this event could turn out to be fun to watch.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira.

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#1. UFC bantamweight division: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

Holly Holm could secure another title shot with a win this weekend

This bantamweight fight is an odd one to discuss in that while it’s a super-high level bout between two of the division’s best fighters, when you take into account their styles, it doesn’t actually promise to produce too many fireworks.

Despite this, there is the chance that the winner could go onto fight the victor of the upcoming Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes rematch for the UFC bantamweight title.

That’s because right now, Holly Holm is ranked only behind those two women in the division, while Ketlen Vieira is only slightly below her at No.6. If Holm were to win, then, the promotion could easily justify giving her a title shot, particularly if Pena still holds the title.

For Vieira, meanwhile, Holm would be the best win she could get in the division outside of the top two, and as she’s not fought for the title yet, it’d be an easy sell to name her the number one contender.

So who will win? The truth is that while Vieira would be the fresher title contender, ‘Fenomeno’ doesn’t seem to match up all that well with the former champion, at least on paper.

Sure, if the Brazilian can get ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ to the ground, then there’s definitely the chance she could win. Holm’s ground defense, particularly when it comes to submissions, has never really been tested. Vieira is a very capable grappler, as we saw when she defeated Sara McMann and Cat Zingano.

However, getting Holm to the ground is another thing entirely. Despite being an older fighter now at the age of 40, ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ is still a standout athlete with absolutely tremendous takedown defense. She’s been taken down just six times in her entire UFC career, and only Miesha Tate really had success on the mat with her.

On the feet, meanwhile, while her head kick knockout of Ronda Rousey was a bit of a red herring - she doesn’t tend to knock many foes out and has been the distance in five of her seven octagon wins - Holm is brilliant. She’s able to sit behind her longer strikes and pick opponents off without taking much damage herself.

Given that Vieira was firmly outstruck by Irene Aldana in their fight, and Holm picked Aldana apart relatively easily in her most recent bout, red flags should definitely be waving for the Brazilian.

MMA math doesn’t always work, but in this case, it feels like a horrible style clash for Vieira.

The Pick: Holm via decision

#2. UFC welterweight division: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Michel Pereira

Can Michel Pereira pick up a big win over Santiago Ponzinibbio this weekend?

Unlike the main event, this fight promises to produce some serious fireworks. Sure, neither Santiago Ponzinibbio nor Michel Pereira is a contender for the UFC welterweight title right now, but that doesn’t matter. They’re likely to exchange bombs until one man goes down, and that should make it tremendous to watch.

Of the two, Ponzinibbio is definitely the more proven. ‘Gente Boa’ shot up the rankings from his octagon debut in 2013 through to his win over Neil Magny in 2018. That win, along with his victories over Gunnar Nelson and Mike Perry, put him firmly in the top 10 at 170 pounds.

However, the Argentine was then sidelined with injuries. When he returned three years later, he suffered a KO at the hands of Li Jingliang and most recently was outpointed by Geoff Neal.

At his best, Ponzinibbio is an excellent striker with heavy hands, nasty leg kicks and a strong chin. However, his willingness to brawl is always a bit of an issue for him, as it tends to mean he risks more than he honestly needs to.

Against Pereira, though, he might be inclined to do just that – wade in with punches and not give his Brazilian opponent a chance to settle and throw something big.

‘Demolidor’ is a highly-dangerous fighter on his feet, but the idea that he’s more flash than substance still remains, even if he looked much improved in his more recent wins over Niko Price and Andre Fialho.

However, he was also outpointed by the completely unheralded Tristan Connelly in 2019, largely because Connelly kept getting in his face, took his shots without flinching, and refused to back down.

Can Ponzinibbio do that? It’s possible, although it’s fair to say that he isn’t likely to attempt to clinch and take Pereira down. Instead, he’s probably going to look to box with him and draw him into an exchange where he can land something big.

Overall, this is a tough fight to pick, but Pereira does seem to have calmed his wildman act a little. If he can remain calm under fire, then there’s definitely the chance he capitalises on Ponzinibbio’s seemingly waning durability.

The Pick: Pereira via second-round TKO

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Exciting striker Chidi Njokuani features on this weekend's main card

In a middleweight bout, Dusko Todorovic faces Chidi Njokuani. This one should be highly interesting, particularly as Njokuani has some hype behind him following his 15-second win over Marc-Andre Barriault in his UFC debut.

Can he repeat the feat against Todorovic? On paper, at least, it seems possible. The Serbian fighter is an excellent striker in his own right and he has seven knockouts to his name, but he isn’t as explosive as ‘Bang Bang’ and has been stopped once before. With that considered, Njokuani via KO is the pick.

In a heavyweight clash, Jailton Almeida faces Parker Porter. Quite why Porter, who stands at just 6’0”, is still fighting as a heavyweight is a mystery. However, he has won his last three octagon bouts in a row, albeit all via decision.

Almeida, meanwhile, looked like quite the prospect in his own UFC debut, as he turned the lights out on Danilo Marques in under three minutes. He’s smaller in terms of weight than Porter, but has the bigger frame and is clearly more explosive. It feels like the promotion has high hopes for him, so the pick is ‘Malhadinho’ via KO.

In a middleweight bout, Eryk Anders takes on Jun Yong Park. Anders remains the same fighter he’s always done – an explosive athlete with raw power and incredible strength, but not all that technical and thus beatable by a more skilled foe.

Park, meanwhile, has won three bouts in the UFC octagon, but all three came via decision. In his two losses, he looked outgunned by better athletes, particularly in his loss to Gregory Rodrigues. Anders hasn’t looked too hot recently, but this looks like a good match for him, so ‘Ya Boi’ via TKO is the pick.

Finally, Polyana Viana takes on Tabatha Ricci in a strawweight bout. Viana is currently on a two-fight win streak, tapping both of her opponents via armbar, while Ricci has gone 1-1 in the UFC octagon. This should come down to whether Viana can take Ricci down and get on top, as she’s probably the more effective grappler by a hair.

However, Ricci does look capable in her own right, and so this one is likely to go the distance. Viana via decision is the pick.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Middleweight: Joseph Holmes vs. Alen Amedovski

Lightweight bout: Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic

Bantamweight bout: Vince Morales vs. Jonathan Martinez

Featherweight bout: Felipe Colares vs. Chase Hooper

Women's strawweight bout: Sam Hughes vs. Elise Reed