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After a weekend without a UFC show, the promotion returns this weekend with its latest Fight Night effort from the Las Vegas APEX center.
This weekend’s UFC Fight Night features a middleweight clash between Jack Hermansson and Sean Strickland in the headliner. However, there is little else in terms of name value elsewhere.
Whether UFC fans will get into this show, or they’ll just skip it is a very genuine question. However, as always, there may be at least one or two fights on offer worth watching.
On that note, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland.
#1. UFC middleweight division: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is set to face off with old rival Robert Whittaker with the title on the line at UFC 271 on February 12. So there’s a massive window of opportunity for both men involved in this fight.
Sure, the winner of Derek Brunson vs. Jared Cannonier might have a better claim to a title shot than either Jack Hermansson or Sean Strickland. However, if Brunson, in particular, wins the fight, he already has a loss to both Adesanya and Whittaker on his ledger. That might allow the promotion to skip over him, and allow the winner of this bout to slip into the spot.
Among the two middleweights, it’s inarguable that Strickland has been on the better run as of late. He hasn’t lost since May 2018, and has put together a run of five wins in a row, including four at 185lbs.
Most recently, ‘Tarzan’ outpointed Uriah Hall in a one-sided, if dull, five-round headline bout last July. It probably didn’t earn him many new fans. However, it was impressive, as he completely outstruck Hall, and never really allowed him out of first gear.
Hermansson, meanwhile, looked set to make a run at the title when he upset Jacare Souza back in 2019. However, a subsequent loss to Cannonier derailed those hopes. ‘The Joker’ did bounce back well by submitting Kelvin Gastelum, but a loss to Marvin Vettori then pushed him out of contention again.
The Swede has now got back on track with a win over Edmen Shahbazyan, and a win here might elevate him into the top five at 185lbs. Overall, this is a bit of a tricky bout to call.
Both men have a similar lanky build and reach, although Hermansson’s is slightly longer at 77.5”. Moreover, they both have solid skills elsewhere, too, with both men being among the more underrated grapplers in the division.
The thing that might edge it for Hermansson is his overall aggression. ‘The Joker’ loves to push a high pace, forcing his opponents backwards, and often forcing them into making silly mistakes, or tiring them out.
Strickland, meanwhile, prefers to lull his foes into a lower-paced fight, as he did with Hall. However, based on what we’ve seen from ‘The Joker’, it could be tricky for him to do that here.
Considering the same, expect Hermansson to back Strickland up from the off here, throwing him off his usual gameplan and opening him up to take the harder shots. If ‘The Joker’ can also mix some takedowns in, this should be his fight to lose.
The Pick: Hermansson via unanimous decision.
#2. UFC middleweight division: Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
It says a lot about the overall strength of this UFC card when a middleweight fight between a fighter coming off a loss (Punahele Soriano) and one stepping into the octagon for just the second time (Nick Maximov) can act as the co-headliner.
Of the two fighters, Soriano has more UFC experience, as he’s been with the promotion since emerging from Dana White’s Contender Series in mid-2019.
Early on, the native of Hawaii looked like a genuinely excellent prospect. Soriano took out Oskar Piechota by knockout on his octagon debut. He then followed that with a vicious stoppage of Dusko Todorovic last January.
However, his loss to Brendan Allen last summer exposed him somewhat as a fighter who appears to struggle if he can’t finish his opponent early on. By the later rounds of that fight, ‘Story Time’ was essentially a walking target for Allen, who blooded him up with smoother strikes pretty badly.
The big question here, then, is whether he can land something nasty and take Maximov out early on before the potential slowdown happens, leaving him at risk of being taken down and dominated.
In all honesty, it’s tricky to say. Maximov has less overall experience than the Hawaiian. Moreover, the wins he has picked up thus far have largely come against overmatched opposition.
The student of Nick Diaz’s academy looked solid on his octagon debut last October, particularly on the ground. However, it’s worth noting that he also struggled on the feet with Cody Brundage, a fighter who doesn’t appear to hit as hard as Soriano.
Based on Soriano’s loss to Allen, this isn’t an impossible fight for Maximov. If he can avoid that haymaker in the early going and take the Hawaiian down, he could well find himself in a position to put him away.
However, given the sheer power of Soriano and the fact that Maximov struggled badly on the feet with Brundage, the first round could be seriously worrying for the Diaz student.
Essentially then, as long as ‘Story Time’ can avoid being taken down by Maximov, this should be a winnable fight, particularly if he comes out and swings hard early and doesn’t gas out too quickly.
The Pick: Soriano via first-round KO.
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Carlston Harris. This is definitely one of the better fights on the card, as both men have looked fabulous in the UFC thus far. Rakhmonov submitted both of his opponents, while Harris has also picked up two finishes.
Overall, it’s a difficult one to pick, as we haven’t seen either man fight through any adversity yet. However, Rakhmonov appears to be the slightly more aggressive fighter, so expect him to come out all guns blazing. Quite how Harris would handle that is anyone’s guess, so the pick here is Rakhmonov via TKO.
Meanwhile, in a middleweight fight, Phil Hawes will take on Sam Alvey. In all honesty, this feels like a bounce-back fight for the hot prospect Hawes following his surprise knockout against Chris Curtis last year.
A high-level wrestler with bricks for hands, Hawes has all the tools to reach the top. However, if he wants to do so, he’ll need to protect his chin better than he did against Curtis.
This is a good fight for him, though, as Alvey rarely throws anything but his counter right hook. ‘Smilin Sam’ is also on a horrible slide. He hasn’t won a fight since 2018. Considering the same, the pick here is Hawes via TKO.
In another middleweight clash, Bryan Battle will square off with Tresean Gore. Interestingly, this should’ve been the final of TUF 29, but Gore was forced out with an injury, allowing Battle to instead beat Gilbert Urbina.
Will this fight live up to the standards of say, Griffin vs. Bonnar? It’s unlikely, but it should still be watchable. Essentially, it should come down to whether Battle can weather a likely storm from the more inexperienced Gore before wearing him out for a decision.
It’s possible, but Gore showed himself to be a dangerous finisher during TUF, while Battle’s penchant for taking damage could cost him dearly. The pick here is Gore via TKO.
Finally, Julian Erosa takes on Steven Peterson in a featherweight bout. This should at least be a wild and entertaining fight, as both men tend to come forward swinging wild strikes at their opponents until one gets stopped.
Of the two, Erosa seems to be slightly more well-rounded. While Peterson is definitely a gritty fighter who can avoid being finished, he can also be outworked. Therefore, the pick here is Erosa via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
Bantamweight bout: Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda
Featherweight bout: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Michael Trizano
Middleweight bout: Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Bantamweight bout: Alexis Davis vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Light-heavyweight bout: Jailton Almeida vs. Danilo Marques
Welterweight bout: Jason Witt vs. Phillip Rowe
Flyweight bout: Malcolm Gordon vs. Denys Bondar.
