Was Paulo Costa ever as good as he was thought to be? Reexamining the Brazilian’s record after his loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298

After UFC 298, Paulo Costa is now 1-3 in his last four fights and has not managed to defeat anyone currently ranked at middleweight. He was on the receiving end of a competitive but unanimous decision loss to Robert Whittaker this past weekend, and it has led to questions about his skills as a fighter.

He is clearly good enough to compete against the division's top 10, otherwise he wouldn't have had competitive bouts with Whittaker, a former champion, and Marvin Vettori, who is currently the No.5-ranked middleweight on the roster.

However, being good enough is, ironically, not good enough.

No fighter aims to be praised for losing well. Fighters, especially those who are determined to re-enter title contention like Costa, want to win. But Costa hasn't won, not against anyone who matters.

So while he may be good, was he ever as good as his previously undefeated record implied?

---

Evaluating Paulo Costa's UFC wins

Paulo Costa's last win was a closely contested unanimous decision over former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold. On paper, the win appears to have merit, but not when Rockhold's run of form prior to his retirement is examined. The former champion retired after going 1-4 in his last five fights.

He was knocked out in three of those losses, even by the notoriously pillow-fisted Michael Bisping. Yet, 'Borrachinha', someone mistakenly perceived as being more powerful than he actually is, is the only one who had a competitive fight with Rockhold, and the only one who failed to finish him across his final four losses.

Furthermore, Rockhold was 37 years old at the time, even confessing to feeling the effects of his age after losing to Costa. In short, the Brazilian's last win was a competitive unanimous decision over a 37-year-old Rockhold who had been knocked out in three of his last four fights before retiring from MMA.

Prior to that, 'Borrachinha's' only other win was over the dangerous Yoel Romero, whose status was upheld more by reputation than actual exploits inside the octagon. First, Romero is no longer in the UFC, and the unanimous decision win itself was highly contested, with some deeming it a robbery in Costa's favor.

Second, Romero was 1-2 in his last three fights before he took on Costa, and later left the UFC after going 1-4 in his last five bouts, with a three-fight win losing streak no less. He subsequently suffered a split decision loss to UFC washout Phil Davis at Bellator.

In fact, Romero's only wins since a 2018 knockout over Rockhold, are finishes over no-name fighters like Alex Polizzi or a 46-year-old Melvin Manhoef, who has always struggled with wrestling. Since then, 'Soldier of God' has lost to Vadim Nemkov, making him 2–5 in his last seven bouts.

Prior to the Romero win, 'Borrachinha' had scored a TKO win over the now-retired Uriah Hall, who was 1-3 at the time. While his foe went on to win his next four fights, the first two were against Bevon Lewis, who is 1-4 in his last five, with a 7-4 record, and Antônio Carlos Júnior, who left the UFC after a three-fight losing streak.

The other two wins that Hall had scored were over a then heavily declining 2-5 Chris Weidman, and a 1-6 (1 NC) Anderson Silva, who was booted from the UFC thereafter. Costa's other notable UFC win against a declining former welterweight in Johny Hendricks, who was 1-4 in his last five at the time, and retired afterward.

Before that, he had beaten Oluwale Bamgbose, who was 1-3 in his last four back then, and is now 6-4, having not fought since 2017. Finally, Costa's first UFC win was aganist Garreth McLellan, who was on a two-fight losing streak and 1-3 in his last five before a four-fight losing streak that's left him with no fights since 2019.

Shockingly, Costa's record reveals that he has only ever beaten one fighter coming off a win, which sheds further light on his losses.

---

Evaluating Paulo Costa's UFC losses

While his UFC wins deserve scrutiny, so too do Paulo Costa's losses. He has only ever tasted defeat thrice in the promotion, bringing him to 6-3 in the UFC. However, all of his losses have come against the only true top five fighters he has ever faced.

Furthermore, all of his losses have come against the only currently ranked fighters he has ever faced. His first defeat was handed to him by Israel Adesanya, who completely dismantled him over two rounds before the inevitable TKO win and humiliating post-fight celebration.

Afterward, he lost to Marvin Vettori, after refusing to make weight at 185 pounds. While a top five fighter, Vettori himself isn't regarded as truly elite, and hasn't been on a win streak since 2021. Lastly, 'Borrachinha' recently lost to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298 in a grueling unanimous decision.

A look at his three losses reveals that, besides his TKO loss to Adesanya, Costa is good enough to have competitive bouts with virtually anyone at middleweight. Only Adesanya has truly dominated him. But, his toughness and skill being good enough to make most of his bouts competitive still aren't enough for him to win.

Against the only currently ranked fighters he has faced, he lost. The undefeated status he held prior to fighting Adesanya was misleading. Costa was/is good, but of his six UFC wins, only one was against a fighter coming off a victory himself, and everyone he has beaten is retired, inactive, or floundering in lesser promotions.

On his best day, he is perhaps a legitimate top five middleweight, or at the very least top six. But he is no title contender, nor a top three 185-pounder.